Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Cloud 10]

Impressive day 10 anomaly from ECM this evening,more used to seeing a huge swathe of orange

over Eastern Europe this time of year rather than a sea of blue...

 

[Matthew.]

The ECM really shows some retrogression. Charts very unusual to the norm. I really wonder whats going to happen leading into the winter season

Quote

 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The ECM really shows some retrogression. Charts very unusual to the norm. I really wonder whats going to happen leading into the winter season

 

Could this be the real humdinger of a winter we have been waiting decades for?

[shaky]

On 11/09/2016 at 19:24, Singularity said:

What an ecm this evening!!did not expect a split vortex this early!infact there is hardly a vortex anywhere in the northern hemisphere lol!!very subdued start to october indeed!!sign of things to come maybe!

[knocker]

The EPS mean 850mb chart at T240 has HP to the NE and LP to the SW thus an unsettled cool flow from an easterly quadrant. This scenario pertains more or less through to T360 but of course is subject to change.

The overall NH pattern for 10-15 has an Aleutian low and rather flat pattern across N. America with a positive heights in the Iceland are with the eastern Atlantic in a vacuum above the area of low pressure. A very inactive pattern with the main arm of a very weak jet stream running west-east into Iberia.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS mean 850mb chart at T240 has HP to the NE and LP to the SW thus an unsettled cool flow from an easterly quadrant. This scenario pertains more or less through to T360 but of course is subject to change.

The overall NH pattern for 10-15 has an Aleutian low and rather flat pattern across N. America with a positive heights in the Iceland are with the eastern Atlantic in a vacuum above the area of low pressure. A very inactive pattern with the main arm of a very weak jet stream running west-east into Iberia.

Looking at predicted temps over Russia, and the locale of the vortex, the SAI could be in pretty impressive  territory come the back end of October. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at predicted temps over Russia, and the locale of the vortex, the SAI could be in pretty impressive  territory come the back end of October. 

I was just thinking the same thing Blue, plenty of Artic air spilling down the eastern flank of the scandy high i would imagine, not sure if there will be any knock on effect for November as i seem to recall a scandy high this time last year...

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very blocked throughout and turning progressively cooler / colder from the east..there is no sign of the atlantic returning in the next 10 days, indeed, it could stay blocked and chilly until beyond mid month..I'm looking forward to the colder side of autumn, I think a spell of chilly weather will be welcomed following all the recent humidity and excessive warmth!

Edited October 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

Models are showing a very blocked set up indeed, with a very weak ineffectual jetstream and atlantic, strong heights over the pole, and an easterly feed from deep within Siberia all the way across the north atlantic with warm air advection up western side of Greenland all courtesy of projected path of hurricane Matthew, which looks like heading up the eastern seaboard. Ex tropical storm systems can have a marked influence on the overall northern hemisphere set up - a ripple effect.

If you look at the isobars we have an especially long draw easterly deep from within Siberia - the consequence no wonder is the deep cold uppers shown for eastern europe. Could be some low level snowfalls in places.

(the charts have an air of March 2013 about them).. alas its only October, but if they verify next week is looking decidedly chilly - all the talk of a warm wet October going down the pan fast (also the Met office contingency forecast), but plenty can change..

[Allseasons-Si]

It's great to see the MOD thread buzzing again as we enter the realms of winter around the corner and with charts like today, i see why

i did post a few days ago saying that if we get that hp to drift further north out of Europe then we could begin to see a cool down from the N/NE/E

here is the 8-14 dayer from then

now look at the 6-10 and the 8-14 dayer from today

where is the Atlantic train,sent packing to the Pacific

it's not often you see a easterly component on this chart from weer plaza

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

i know it's only October but lets hope this block continues into November and just maybe we might see some of the white stuff by then,fingers x'd

 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Mucka]

General theme from 18z ensembles, blocking, retrogression, southerly jet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

General theme from 18z ensembles, blocking, retrogression, southerly jet.

Some impressive charts there. Over on TWO they were stressing about the high gradually sinking SE and ruining Nov and Dec. No need to worry if the high retrogresses....

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to advertise a cool East flow turning N/East into the run.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

During the next ten days or so the GFS keeps the HP to the NE, aided and abetted by some ridging NE from the Atlantic, thus maintaining a cold, cloudy and rather dismal flow from the an easterly quadrant. There is one major caveat to this scenario.

On Monday the upper low to the SE is situated around the French/German border and the surface impacts of this are beginning to effect England particularly the east and south east for a pleasant change. This basically is the story of next week as the upper low stays very adjacent to southern Britain.

Ergo next week, assuming this verifies of course, looks like being fairly cloudy and cool in England, with perhaps some rain, and Clacton not a place to be going for a mid week break.

A quick look at the NH GEFS anomaly supports the above scenario. Aleutian low instigating much WAA into the Arctic with the 'vortex' N. Canada. It goes on to lose the Scandinavian block.

Edited October 5, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z shows the scandi block looking rock solid out to T+144 and potentially well beyond and feeding progressively colder air across the uk from the north sea and northern europe, the air originating in Russia, hopefully a taste of things to come during the upcoming winter which is looming a little larger with each passing day. A nice autumn chill on the way which will make a welcome change from all that high humidity we had last month!

Edited October 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

An increasingly chilly blocked Ecm 00z this morning with winds from the E / NE which lasts until almost the end of next week, the far NW then has a brief flirtation with the Atlantic but beyond T+240 would probably see high pressure building across the uk..a nice autumn chill is coming!

[knocker]

The ecm is not dissimilar to the GFS, certainly up to the beginning of next week where it has the upper trough being the main player vis the dismal weather in England. After that it differs. It does keep the Scandinavian HP but sufficiently far NE to allow the Atlantic door to open a liitle and allow the jet to begin normal service after a fashion and bring forth systems once again traveling west-east in the upper flow.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Edited October 5, 2016 by knocker

[Seasonality]

12 hours ago, Mucka said:

ECM is broken, much of central/eastern Europe in the freezer. 

It'll be chilly in Warsaw if that comes off! Nothing exceptional but hopefully for cold fans in the uk it signals a building cold pool in central and eastern Europe to tap into. Lovely charts.

[Summer Sun]

Pretty cold for eastern Europe next week temps in the UK won't be overly low maybe a touch below normal

Cooling down in Moscow next week no snow yet

[Tim Bland]

Models now confident of a big cool down next week with Eastern Europe and Russia likely to see their first snow.  What happened to the OPI ? I haven't seen it mentioned this year.  Has it been scrapped after its poor performance last year ?  I thought there was evidence linking early snow cover in East Europe to a cold / blocked winter for us ?

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Models now confident of a big cool down next week with Eastern Europe and Russia likely to see their first snow.  What happened to the OPI ? I haven't seen it mentioned this year.  Has it been scrapped after its poor performance last year ?  I thought there was evidence linking early snow cover in East Europe to a cold / blocked winter for us ?

 

It didn't run last year the website is no longer accessible

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm looks to be showing general progression towards polar vortex getting its act together.

also see the decline in northern blocking and removal of lastnights retrogression.

but in the mean time beautiful blue skys nice fresh air some frost on the way until then.

would love to see vortex dominate over the siberian side but this month into next we shall get a general idea of what might happen.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

46 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is not dissimilar to the GFS, certainly up to the beginning of next week where it has the upper trough being the main player vis the dismal weather in England. After that it differs. It does keep the Scandinavian HP but sufficiently far NE to allow the Atlantic door to open a liitle and allow the jet to begin normal service after a fashion and bring forth systems once again traveling west-east in the upper flow.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

im not afriad but am interested to see the atlantic door open and how dominant the atlantic gets the more weaker the atlantic domination the more likely perhaps into novemeber we can get a true greenland block with jet going south.

one thing to note most models find it difficult to model blocking removal and what will happen beyond!

so it could be scandi heights will wobble around for sometime so really anything is possible beyond and into fi.

but already signs that this winter could be a little better than last with more of a 09/10 feel with hurricaines and other atmospheric changes slightly more inline with 09/10 although west qbo still a question mark but very possible this could weaken and change with in the next 4 to 6 weeks although this is just a side observation at the moment.

as for the glosea model i wish we all had this model because its shown its the best and money well spent.

 

[jvenge]

Not sure I see the into the freezer Eastern Europe. For my part at least, don't see anything other than seasonal norms at the moment. 

I would hope that this winter would be more than a little bit better than last! That's setting the bar quite low ;-)

[Frosty.]

44 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I would hope that this winter would be more than a little bit better than last! That's setting the bar quite low ;-)

Anything is better than the constant diet of mild southwesterly mush so I'm looking forward to a chilly easterly spell of october weather with temps dipping at least a little below average..hopefully this blocked pattern is just a little appetizer for the winter ahead which will surely be better than the puke fest last time!