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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Very cheeky of you! I see the old 'make a comparison to a cold winter of old' trick is still in vogue. :)

I wouldn't mind a repeat performance of late December 1978 and early 1979:shok:

Anyway, the models are firming up on a very pleasant late october but I would then like the turn of the month to deliver our first cold plunge which the 6z perturbations I posted on the previous page are showing!:santa-emoji:

Rrea00219790101.gif

Rrea00219781231.gif

Rrea00119781231.gif

Rrea00119790101.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Looking at this afternoon's UKMO winds will be coming from a milder southerly direction on Sunday during Monday they shift more westerly before eventually shifting round to a north-westerly by Wednesday

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

The south-west could see some of the best conditions around mid week as you'll be closer to the high

Edited by Summer Sun
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
  • Popular Post
Posted

GFS 12z FI

 

gfsnh-0-336.png?12

Atlantic wouldn't be coming through there in a hurry

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Grimers Enthusiast

Grimers

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

The UKMO model develops a high in the middle of the Atlantic giving light W winds across the all parts of the UK on Monday and Tuesday.

UW120-21.GIF?12-18 UW144-21.GIF?12-18

Edited by Grimers
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Grimers Enthusiast

Grimers

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z FI

 

gfsnh-0-336.png?12

Atlantic wouldn't be coming through there in a hurry

That is some "Arctic Blast"!

Edited by Grimers
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
4 minutes ago, Grimers said:

That is some "Arctic Blast"!

Certainly would be in winter but not that much cold air to tap into so early in the season.

Still, if a trough were to set up in Northern/Central Europe and it were sustained.... :bomb::cold-emoji::D

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Grimers Enthusiast

Grimers

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

The GFS model shows a high that moves in from the W into the UK through next Wednesday and Thursday.

gfs-0-156.png?12 gfs-0-162.png?12 gfs-0-168.png?12 gfs-0-174.png?12 gfs-0-180.png?12 gfs-0-186.png?12 gfs-0-192.png?12

Edited by Grimers
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at this afternoon's UKMO winds will be coming from a milder southerly direction on Sunday during Monday they shift more westerly before eventually shifting round to a north-westerly by Wednesday

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

The south-west could see some of the best conditions around mid week as you'll be closer to the high

Interestingly the MO update mentioned a sw / ne split next week.

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Grimers Enthusiast

Grimers

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Interestingly the MO update mentioned a sw / ne split next week.

Yes, and that's not that apparent in the UKMO model...

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Grimers Enthusiast

Grimers

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
30 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Certainly would be in winter but not that much cold air to tap into so early in the season.

Still, if a trough were to set up in Northern/Central Europe and it were sustained.... :bomb::cold-emoji::D

Yes, you're absolutely right. I was sort of in my Winter mind...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Lovely to see a wintry flavour to the later stages of the Gfs 12z which mirrors some of those Gefs 6z perturbations I posted earlier, hopefully the snow & arctic air will come!:cold-emoji:

prectypeuktopo.png

ukmintemp.png

prectypeuktopo (1).png

prectypeuktopo (2).png

hgt500-1000.png

h850t850eu.png

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Quite a wet and possibly windy Tuesday/Weds next week as a trough nips in from Canada leaving the Azores to ridge in it's wake and thus diverting the next trough to the north east of Scotland.

gfs_uv250_natl_26.pnggfs_z500a_natl_27.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z ensembles throwing up some lovely winter charts in FI, only problem is it's not winter, :snowman-emoji: (might feel like it though if this strength of blocking takes hold.

gensnh-5-1-312.pnggensnh-8-1-324.pnggensnh-14-1-360.png

gensnh-6-1-348.png gensnh-13-1-384.pnggensnh-16-1-384.png

gensnh-7-1-384.pnggensnh-4-1-360.pnggensnh-12-1-300.pnggensnh-15-1-384.png

 

Makes quite a change to see GFS throw up blocked charts way out in FI instead of the usual default zonal onslaught.

 

graphe6_1000_261_24___.gif

Just a hint of temps falling away in deep FI?

Edited by Mucka
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Towards the end of next week the GEFS 12z mean shows a marked improvement from the southwest as high pressure replaces the trough and the high becomes centred over the uk during the following days bringing very pleasant benign conditions, perfect for the autumn colours!:)

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

21_264_500mb.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEM 12z also shows increasing high pressure influence from the south west during the second half of next week which leads to another scandi high and ridging from it for the uk, but the main high is far enough away so we have more of a warmer sly / sely draw rather than colder easterly.

Rgem1921.gif

Rgem2161.gif

Rgem2162.gif

Rgem2401.gif

Rgem2402.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

2 different day's here I know but look at the difference between the 00z and 12z on ECM

Recm1441.gifRecm1681.gif

Not especially warm but turning more settled

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Still no sign of the atlantic onslaught which is unusual at this time of year :-)

Yes SLEETY this is not our typical autumn pattern and hopefully that will be the case this winter too!:D

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

The ecm not making anything of next Tues/Weds low as it has the Azores ridging cutting the west-east supply line so it's just the remnants of the weekend low effecting the north west late Monday. Will the HP hang on or will it be squashed by the colder air and the jet?

 

Edited by Paul
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Well the Ecm 12z is looking good again with high pressure building in from the southwest even by next midweek and it looks especially pleasant further south from later next week onwards!:D

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
36 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

2 different day's here I know but look at the difference between the 00z and 12z on ECM

Recm1441.gifRecm1681.gif

Not especially warm but turning more settled

Consistent for all parts ... Except the UK! "Why always him?"

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Consistent for all parts ... Except the UK! "Why always him?"

It still turns into a cracker of a run which is all that matters.:)

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
34 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm not making anything of next Tues/Weds low as it has the Azores ridging cutting the west-east supply line so it's just the remnants of the weekend low effecting the north west late Monday. Will the HP hang on or will it be squashed by the colder air and the jet?

 

And it does. Will we get an HP surge NE or a slide Se? await the EPS

ecm_z500_anom_natl_11.png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

Comparing the +240 from ECM with the chart from that time last year...

it seems we have a better platform to build on, it's rather subdued over the pole as well as Greenland/Labrador sea, making it a more ideal environment for areas of blocking to develop to the north/northwest, which I believe has been highlighted by an individual.. I suppose we'll find out in time.

image.pngimage.png

Edited by Changing Skies.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

 Will we get an HP surge NE or a slide Se? 

ecm_z500_anom_natl_11.png

Or.. neither:shok:

Edited by Frosty.
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