Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Matthew.]

Yes Frosty let's hope so There might be something in it as heights collapse into mid-latitudes from the north?

[Frosty.]

3 hours ago, phil nw. said:

 so any blocking is looking more likely to become  mid-latitude as time goes on.

 

 

Yes matthew, it's something that Phil mentioned earlier.

[knocker]

Today and the next couple of days.

Today and tomorrow will stay in the HP/easterly regime probably with showers encroaching further in land from the east and remaining quite cool in these areas. Friday sees the expected change with the upper low reinforced from the NW and the surface feature becoming the dominant factor over the UK for the weekend bringing unsettled conditions to most with temps around average.

So where from here? Initially the conduit for energy transfer from Canad is still in place, albeit pushed further N, so that the nest trough and associated fronts track SE across the UK on Tuesday bringing a spell of wet, and possibly windy weather/

The passage of this system heralds the resurgence of the Azores HP NE towards the Scandinavian which is on it's bike east. Now depending where the surface high sets up, we could be looking at a repeat move into an easterly pattern but there is so much uncertainty around at the moment much more confirmation, from the ecm for one, before one can have any confidence in this evolution is required. And whether it's stable because, dare I say it, the upper patter looks quite mobile.

 

Edited October 12, 2016 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lets get this wet mid-section out of the way and back 1/4 of month into Nov we can have another settled warm period.  Models are sniffing at it

 

BFTP

[seaside 60]

40 minutes ago, knocker said:

Today and the next couple of days.

Today and tomorrow will stay in the HP/easterly regime probably with showers encroaching further in land from the east and remaining quite cool in these areas. Friday sees the expected change with the upper low reinforced from the NW and the surface feature becoming the dominant factor over the UK for the weekend bringing unsettled conditions to most with temps around average.

So where from here? Initially the conduit for energy transfer from Canad is still in place, albeit pushed further N, so that the nest trough and associated fronts track SE across the UK on Tuesday bringing a spell of wet, and possibly windy weather/

The passage of this system heralds the resurgence of the Azores HP NE towards the Scandinavian which is on it's bike east. Now depending where the surface high sets up, we could be looking at a repeat move into an easterly pattern but there is so much uncertainty around at the moment much more confirmation, from the ecm for one, before one can have any confidence in this evolution is required. And whether it's stable because, dare I say it, the upper patter looks quite mobile.

 

The one thing those charts show for me is what appears to be an awful lot of snow for the Alps. Even if not lower down in the valleys .

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

The one thing those charts show for me is what appears to be an awful lot of snow for the Alps. Even if not lower down in the valleys .

Well

[seaside 60]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well

Well now you have presented that chart, the other stunning thing is how dry the whole of Europe is inc us.
Or how crap Accum charts are for 300 hours.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Well now you have presented that chart, the other stunning thing is how dry the whole of Europe is inc us.
Or how crap Accum charts are for 300 hours.

Well I wouldn't take any notice whatsoever of acc. charts greater than 12 hours or distribution very often Mind to be fair when you say dry we are talking specifically about snow.

Edited October 12, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

ECM turns out very nice this morning by the end of the run, settled and increasingly mild (though with fog caveats at this time of year). Still too far out to be really certain though.

[Frosty.]

A very pleasant anticyclonic end to the Ecm 00z this morning. Late October could be very nice indeed!

Edited October 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean is trending towards a very benign pleasant late october with high pressure taking control.

[Man With Beard]

Yes as others have mentioned, the GEFS and ECM presenting a settled picture with high pressure dominant as we head into the final third of October. Possibly warm if the high aligns correctly but if not, frost and fog become an issue.

The sniff of a northerly from yesterday's GEFS not very evident this morning. However with warm air continuing to reach polar areas, splits in the vortex may result in some sort of polar outbreak later in the month (though they may not particularly affect the UK of course).

Edited October 12, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Grimers]

The GFS model and the ECMWF model show a low to the W of the UK bringing average temperatures on Sunday.

   

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows next weeks trough gradually filling and pushing away eastwards with high pressure building in so it's an improving picture and bodes well for late october, especially for the southern half of the uk.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

After initially building heights to the west and adjacent to the UK the EPS from the around the 23rd to the 27th (end of run) builds the heights quite strongly to the NE.  Indications are that the surface HP cell would possible be around southern Sweden if this scenario materialized. Be afraid; be very afraid.

[Grimers]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

After initially building heights to the west and adjacent to the UK the EPS from the around the 23rd to the 27th (end of run) builds the heights quite strongly to the NE.  Indications are that the surface HP cell would possible be around southern Sweden if this scenario materialized. Be afraid; be very afraid.

What are we supposed to be afraid about, knocker? I can't see anything to be afraid about...

Edited October 12, 2016 by Grimers

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Grimers said:

What are we supposed to be afraid about, knocker? I can't see anything to be afraid about...

Could be a hint of a nascent Euroslug?

[Grimers]

The ECMWF model shows a low crossing the UK from W to E giving strong NW winds across S parts of the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, a large area of high pressure moves in behind from the W and stalls over southern parts of the UK giving light S winds to southern parts of the UK and it also shows a low to the N of Iceland giving strong SW winds to N parts of the UK from Thursday to Saturday.

    

Edited October 14, 2016 by Grimers

[Frosty.]

Well the Gfs 6z shows a marked improvement following a more unsettled phase with next weeks trough filling and being shunted out of the way by high pressure building in from the west and then migrating to the east but leaving a strong ridge over the uk with pleasant days bringing sunny spells but chilly nights with a touch of frost and mist / fog patches where winds are light. Looking further ahead, the extended outlook indicates another interlude of trough influence but then the end of the run shows an Atlantic / Azores high looming large to bring a return of settled weather.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

GFS 06z ensembles way out at  day 15

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

Nothing zonal on offer with a continuation of the trough/ridge/trough amplified longwave pattern at our latitude though no real suggestion of HLB, just a continuation of MLB.

Naturally the positioning of the ridge and amount of amplification will dictate the nature of our weather but if GFS is right it suggests much of the rest of October will be benign and largely settled though interspersed with showery unsettled spells as troughs slowly move through. 

Stunning autumn day in Manchester today and I'm enjoying this largely settled spell as we meander  slowly toward Winter.

[Faronstream]

I would be very suprised if the zonal flow in west europe would not come back last days of October and continue into November, last 10 years almost all novembers have had more precipitation than normal and mild. I just hope that we can get early cold spells in December instead of late ones like last years with snowfalls into march ( i am thinking on march 2013)

GFS long range is kind of unsettled, ECM has more influences from azores high and very mild 850hpa temperatures

 

[carinthian]

The main feature to notice here in 10 days is the prolonged establishment of the block to the east with increasingly cold surface flow by this time. Looks like a repeat phase of narrow trough distruption. Jet stream pattern remains fragmented and meridional rather than full frontal zonal, so eventual placement of any troughing will be hard to locate at this time stage.

 C

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean also supports the trend towards a benign pleasant spell of high pressure in the mid range once the filling remnants of next weeks trough are pushed away but then towards the end of the run there are quite a few 6z perturbations indicating an arctic outbreak with high pressure out in mid Atlantic and a scandi trough which is reflected by the mean towards the end of october..it's a long way out but it should interest coldies.

[Timmytour]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean also supports the trend towards a benign pleasant spell of high pressure in the mid range once the filling remnants of next weeks trough are pushed away but then towards the end of the run there are quite a few 6z perturbations indicating an arctic outbreak with high pressure out in mid Atlantic and a scandi trough which is reflected by the mean towards the end of october..it's a long way out but it should interest coldies.

Reminds me a little of the set up in October 1978....a similar winter to follow would be most pleasing

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Reminds me a little of the set up in October 1978....a similar winter to follow would be most pleasing

Very cheeky of you! I see the old 'make a comparison to a cold winter of old' trick is still in vogue.