Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

There are a good number of GEFS 12z perturbations going cold for the early november period..could be very interesting, certainly much better potential for coldies than this time last year!

Edited October 24, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

What a ridiculous 216 ECM chart regarding the hemispheric pattern, 240 is going to see us not too far from deep cold.

ECM T240

      

 

Compared to.

 

 

 

     

 

     

 

     

 

     

 

 

 

 

The ECM 240 chart is even more disrupted than the same stage in 1995, which went on to be the most blocked winter in my lifetime.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Eskimo]

What a stunning ECM run this evening. PV in shreds, strong Atlantic blocking, colder air filtering down. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z sets up an early wintry spell beyond T+240 with a locked in pattern..as I just said, some recent / current runs show great potential for long suffering coldies this time around. 

Edited October 24, 2016 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

23 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

What a stunning ECM run this evening. PV in shreds, strong Atlantic blocking, colder air filtering down. 

Some serious potential from there, best chart of the day !!

[Ice Day]

Cold air flooding south into Scandi and northern Europe.  Terrific stuff tonight from the ECM, just building blocks but what lovely building blocks!

Edited October 24, 2016 by Ice Day

[bryan629]

Agree with posts above .. a belter of a run from the ECM , it does look quite messy to get to the stunning day 10 chart though.. 

Not only does it show cold uppers about to pounce from the scandi region.. and a seriously -nao/-ao but the similarities between that and what the cfs has is almost uncannily identical. 

     

[Ali1977]

Has anyone got access to the EC monthly suite that Is out this evening ?

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Has anyone got access to the EC monthly suite that Is out this evening ?

You should get some sort of description by about midnight on here (BA usually describes the means), if not, I'm sure given the time of year, Ian Fergusson will do a post on it by tomorrow morning, you wont get any actual charts posted though as its a subscription dataset and a very expensive one at that.

[Day 10]

I think cold fans would all take these charts at 144

That really is nice viewing heading into winter, at least we appear to have many more tickets this year to the elusive Greenland Big Freeze jackpot!

I'd be happy with winning a tenner and snow on the ground for 1 day, that's how poor things have been here last 2 years...

[Mucka]

As far as I see it the ensembles (GFS at least, didn't really check ECM) were wrong mid to longer term which all showed a marked cool down toward mid single digits beginning of November whereas now they are showing a few C higher for same period reflecting the changes over the last 24h?

The majority were on board for a more amplified pattern and flow was largely from N/NE on output whereas now winds are expected to be W/SW for the same period. (I know those are op runs but they appeared well backed by ensembles and mean anomaly charts which is my point)

 

All moot now I guess but remember ECM is often over amplified from day 8 so unless it repeats the dose tomorrow and is backed by GFS or at least JMA then proceed with caution, especially given it is just one op run as Fergie cautioned against.

It is a nice looking chart though and does show that there is still plenty of scope for another attempt.

 

 

[SLEETY]

Stunning ecm not far from start of Cold spell,didnt nov 62 have a big cold spell with snow and we know what happened nect:-)

[Zakos]

For anyone that has a tendency to obsess about every model run during a cold spell...such as myself.. you shouldn't get too upset or overjoyed viewing every run.

This ECM run this evening I agree does certainly give cause for excitement.. it is stunning.

But we had posts on here this morning declaring that this cold spell was over because the Greenland High dissapeared from the GFS.

The block is still sat currently over Scandinavia 

 

There is going to be a "messy" transitional period, as there is sound model agreement that this block will be removed from Scandinavian and attempt to retrogress over Greenland.

Such a huge pattern change involving such a large block is going to be incredibly difficult for the models to predict accurately, expect wild swings in the forecasts in the coming days - a roller coaster if you will. 

The best idea in my opinion is to follow the trend in the model output, taken over a day or a number of days, which has undeniably been heading for a colder and more blocked pattern for several days now. Cold weather fans can only hope that this trend continues!

 

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2016 by Zakos

[snowfall09]

What time does the GFS update? 

 

[ALL ABOARD]

9 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

What time does the GFS update? 

 

22:30 till 00:00

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

What time does the GFS update? 

 

Starts at 2230 and ends before midnight.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Starts at 2230 and ends before midnight.

Ay but from Sunday it's 9.30pm until just before 11pm

Edited October 24, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

12 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

What time does the GFS update? 

 

 

00Z 0430-0545

06Z 1030-1145

12Z 1630-1745

18Z 2230-2345

Take 1 hour off this when the clock's go back

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay but from Sunday it's 9.30 until just before 11pm

Yes its that time of year again, I presumed he meant tonight's though.

[terrier]

Gfs and ukmo are poles apart tonight. Pardon the pun. Then we have the eye candy from the ecm. But remember how many times the ecm has lead us up the garden path over the winter season.#garden fence.

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of cold options on offer from the GFS 12z ens

[snowfall09]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00Z 0430-0545

06Z 1030-1145

12Z 1630-1745

18Z 2230-2345

Take 1 hour off this when the clock's go back

What time does the GFS update? 

Thank you

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

What time does the GFS update? 

Thank you

 

The start and end times for GFS are in the quote you've just done

[Allseasons-Si]

And nobody has commented on the GEM tonight,i know it's not the most reliable model but still in the same ballpark as the others and they will all have timing issues beyond the reliable time frame so here goes

it picks up an easterly from t180 hrs

and by 240hrs a raw easterly sets up although it will not be cold enough for snow except for the most northern hills it is another nice chart to look at and with a poss reload from the N/NE

as for the 850 hpa temps and the 500 hpa height anomaly's it is truly remarkable

and the ECM ensembles from London,Berlin,Stockholm and Warsaw all trend colder

and a final chart from me,the gfs 10 hpa strat temp @216hrs,although it doesn't show a significant warming like bright oranges and reds it's a start

so some good model viewing at the moment and i really wish this continues through the winter months cos the last few......well i had no nails left lol

one finale from me....

welcome back mr sussex

 

[knocker]

No indication tonight from the anomalies that anything sinister is lurking in the woodshed. They are all in the same ball park regarding the general upper pattern and just some minor differences vie the precise orientation of the trough to the east and the Atlantic HP. Ergo the upper flow will be in a westerly/north westerly quadrant with temps perhaps a little above average. The WAA into the Arctic continues.

There would appear to be no significant change to this scenario in the 10-15 period.