Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[damianslaw]

21 hours ago, iapennell said:

Some hint of colder air from the south/south-east finally reached the North Pennines: Clear skies, lovely stars (walking back from work last night all the winter constellations- Orion and his belt mid-way up in south, Gemini high in the south and Sirius- the bright star in Canis Major shining brightly low in SSE nice to see; hardly seen them over last fortnight!) and frost last night down to -1C. Such a change after endless mild damp with periodic hill-fog and temperatures close to 7C. It is so important where persistent high-pressure centres are located as to what weather one gets and northern Britain is often on the NW periphery of the big European Highs- so we tend to get mild air from somewhere near the Azores! Not exactly what you want for crisp hard frosts, starry nights and bright winter days!

The outlook for real cold remains generally poor. A promised high-latitude Stratospheric warming for end January over central Arctic/Greenland seems to have been downgraded a little (tip for punters, NEVER put too much faith in the models or in weather-charts more than ten days out- I have done that in the past only to be disappointed later!). I go by the fact that sea-surface temperatures remain well above normal on the fringes of the Arctic, there is also a strong sea-surface temperature gradient in the NW Atlantic between unusually warm waters for the time of year (up to 8C warmer than usual) off the US East Coast and somewhat icier than usual waters east of Newfoundland. This results in a sharp atmospheric temperature gradient liable to spawn depressions that will head into the NE Atlantic and (further north) the very strong thermal gradient between the warmth of the far North Atlantic and (now) very cold Greenland/Arctic interior will promote further strong cyclogenesis and westerlies to their south that will likewise prevent direct hits of Arctic or Siberian air. The Quasi biennial Oscillation has been in a record Westerly Phase for a couple of months now, and that is something that supports strong higher-latitude Westerlies through an invigorated Circumpolar Vortex.

All of that said, there is a hint (not a guarantee) of something cold via the north or north-west because of predicted developments aloft over the Arctic now ten days out. This will take time to work down from the Stratosphere into the general circulation of mid to high latitudes; so with the (predicted) position of warmth aloft liable to be over northern Canada and the central Arctic, that places high-pressure over Greenland/north-east Canada with depressions in the Eurasian Arctic around 10th to 20th February. There is also a sizeable blob of colder-than-normal water in the North Atlantic south-west of Iceland which may also assist the formation of a Greenland-North Atlantic ridge by then- particularly as air-masses over the Greenland ice-cap become extremely cold (and thus dense) by early February. This flags up the chance of a northerly or north-westerly spell with incursions of Maritime Arctic air over the UK; however such a spell of cold is not likely to be long-lasting and indicators such as the QBO high over the Equator and strongly baroclinic zones in the far North and NW Atlantic mean a return to milder Westerlies by the following week. This is especially as the long-term Stratospheric charts suggest the Stratospheric Polar Vortex will recover Pole Position and strength going into mid-February! 

I'd be happy with a cold snowy spell from the north west/ north mid February - by that stage of the winter there is much less chance of marginality surfacing as the arctic is nearing its coldest point despite the increased thermal temperatures due to the sun. It suggest perhaps a NW-SE aligned jetstreamor even better scandi troughing with low pressure dropping down through the N Sea into central europe with us on the cold side. We shall see - it would also happen during half term week for  many children -  so they could benefit. 

[Summer Sun]

End of Jan / early Feb

Windier
Rain at times
Driest in southeast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38711450

[Summer Sun]

 

[Nick L]

15 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

A dry spring and start to summer could see the issue of water restrictions come into play in the south.

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

A dry spring and start to summer could see the issue of water restrictions come into play in the south.

Yes will be interesting to see how it goes. 1972 and no problem as the rain arrived for summer but 76 and a big drought. 

[Gael_Force]

3 hours ago, Nick L said:

A dry spring and start to summer could see the issue of water restrictions come into play in the south.

The new EC32 out today sees a positive anomaly in rainfall after this week 

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/monthly-forecast/

                             

[Nick L]

The latest water situation report had river flows (page 8 ) largely notably to exceptionally low across England, with reservoir levels generally below normal to notably low in the south:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/583287/WSR_December2016.pdf

[Summer Sun]

Turn of the month

Milder than recently
Wettest and windiest in northwest
Driest in Southeast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38724254

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Spells of rain
Becoming windier
Driest in SE

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38749796

[damianslaw]

Winter 16/17 a milder version of winter 05/06 perhaps? Winter 05/06 was very dry and blocked throughout with alot of mid lattitude blocking but with the Uk tantalisingly close to the very cold air over the continent, but we never managed to tap into any proper cold uppers, with one or two shortlived easterly bouts. In a similiar fashion second half of November 05 was notably cold and wintry.. just like last November - though we had less snow.

Might we see a similiar March to 2006 I wonder, would not be surprised at all, to see the wintriest coldest synoptics occuring just outside both ends of the winter. March 2006 was very cold in the north until about the 23rd, with plenty of snow. It would be a cruel blow though..

 

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 16/17 a milder version of winter 05/06 perhaps? Winter 05/06 was very dry and blocked throughout with alot of mid lattitude blocking but with the Uk tantalisingly close to the very cold air over the continent, but we never managed to tap into any proper cold uppers, with one or two shortlived easterly bouts. In a similiar fashion second half of November 05 was notably cold and wintry.. just like last November - though we had less snow.

Might we see a similiar March to 2006 I wonder, would not be surprised at all, to see the wintriest coldest synoptics occuring just outside both ends of the winter. March 2006 was very cold in the north until about the 23rd, with plenty of snow. It would be a cruel blow though..

 

We'd need February to be chilly though. 01st-11th and 19th-28th were cold periods, with a period of cool Atlanticness in the middle. February already looks like starting in, not only contrary vein, but also quite unusually Atlantic-dominated.

[Nouska]

32 minutes ago, MP-R said:

We'd need February to be chilly though. 01st-11th and 19th-28th were cold periods, with a period of cool Atlanticness in the middle. February already looks like starting in, not only contrary vein, but also quite unusually Atlantic-dominated.

Interesting to note that the SSW of January 21st 2006 was preceded by an almost identical pattern of warming and geopotential heights as are forecast for this one.

The pattern that followed was different to what is being modelled in the far reaches of GFS. Back then the vortex buried itself deep over the landmass of Eurasia but on this occasion it is forecast to keep more over the N.Scandinavian sector.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Nouska

[MP-R]

31 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Interesting to note that the SSW of January 21st 2006 was preceded by an almost identical pattern of warming and geopotential heights as are forecast for this one.

The pattern that followed was different to what is being modelled in the far reaches of GFS. Back then the vortex buried itself deep over the landmass of Eurasia but on this occasion it is forecast to keep more over the N.Scandinavian sector.

Interesting! From that, unless I'm missing something, I can't see how any Atlantic weather will be long-lived.

[Summer Sun]

 

[jvenge]

23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That's not sounding overly positive.

 

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Spells of rain
Becoming windier
Driest in SE

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38765213

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, jvenge said:

That's not sounding overly positive.

 

Generally mild in early February isn't especially mild, indeed statistically the first week of February is the coldest week of the year. I'm seeing hints we may see some strong ridging forming to our north as we enter second week of Feb aided by a more southerly positioned jet, and the projected milder westerly spell next week a short lived blip exchanged by colder air from the N/NW before mid month.

[Snowyowl9]

Just had the coldest night since march 2013 at -4.2c so the coldest weather of the winter now comes from the south,the north wind is no comparison.

SSE wind now freezing fog.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[Azazel]

This winter hasn't been so bad (for me). It's been often cold and frosty and much more settled than usual. Sure, I would've liked to have seen some actual snow but owing to our ghastly climate, it doesn't snow down here anymore.

 

Put it this way, i've much preferred this winter to the last few which brought endless endless rain and wind.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Spells of rain
Becoming windier
Chillier interludes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38774631

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sounds more like Autumn that SS! she kinda did say 'at least it will be mild'

[Norrona2015]

Signs the Atlantic is waking up. Might be good news for snow for those at high elevations, Scottish ski centres for example.

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

Signs the Atlantic is waking up. Might be good news for snow for those at high elevations, Scottish ski centres for example.

Yes, they definitely need it by the looks of things. With everything being closed I'd dread to think the losses they are racking up. 

[lassie23]

Iapenell wins by a knock out. Iapenell 6 weather models 0.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Spells of rain
Becoming windier
Chillier interludes

Chance of something colder 2nd half of Feb

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38783205