Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Yes, as Ian says, there's much uncertainty regards model output & future pattern!

Although, generally looking much better overall than the last few Autumn to Winter periods - which is encouraging!

Perhaps, a tad too early really.

Shame  it's not January/February time when UK & Western Europe could really benefit from a relatively weak disorganised vortex, blocking & a more wintry NH set-up.

Slightly frustrating!

But, let's hope for the best.

 

No but the Cfs is mild winters over 

[snowblizzard]

7 hours ago, weirpig said:

No but the Cfs is mild winters over 

Let's hope they are wrong!

Edited November 6, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Walsall Wood Snow]

As Crewecold says it is both disappointing and concerning that the CFS is suggesting a +NAO developing, especially after so much early potential promise for this coming Winter. Even if such did develop though it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be stuck in a rut and things could change down the line, meaning that perhaps not all of Winter would be a dud. However at the same time doesn't this model have quite a mixed success rate, with it been very close to the mark sometimes and other times been way off? Also before we start getting too worried we better wait to see what the next Glosea and EC seasonal updates suggest. It is a bit deflating though of course, and we've just got to hope for now that it's wrong. Indeed after such promising signs this Autumn that we may finally be breaking free from the recent run of mild Winters it would feel pretty demoralising if we're about to enter yet another one. A lot of water to run under the bridge yet though, so we'll just have to sit tight and see.

[Geordiesnow]

The blocking does try to influence the outlook for our shores and it does to an extent but in fairness, even if it does, I just can't see how it would deliver in terms of snowfall, at least not initially anyways as the cold is forecast to be more moderated over Scandi during next week. That said maybe patience is the key but at this time of year, Northerlies are a better diretion for cold and snow rather than easterlies.

The outlook is far from cut and dry and whilst theres hints the Atlantic will take control, the idea of some sort of height rises are not going away and it would appear it will put up some sort of a battle so it will be interesting what the final outcome will be and not just for our shores but for Scandi also because whilst the UK will get some Atlantic based weather next week, if the scandi block remains then there is always a chance and there will always be some sort of model uncertainty.

[Gael_Force]

31 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

As Crewecold says it is both disappointing and concerning that the CFS is suggesting a +NAO developing, especially after so much early potential promise for this coming Winter. Even if such did develop though it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be stuck in a rut and things could change down the line, meaning that perhaps not all of Winter would be a dud. However at the same time doesn't this model have quite a mixed success rate, with it been very close to the mark sometimes and other times been way off? Also before we start getting too worried we better wait to see what the next Glosea and EC seasonal updates suggest. It is a bit deflating though of course, and we've just got to hope for now that it's wrong. Indeed after such promising signs this Autumn that we may finally be breaking free from the recent run of mild Winters it would feel pretty demoralising if we're about to enter yet another one. A lot of water to run under the bridge yet though, so we'll just have to sit tight and see.

Where is this panic about the NAO coming from? The Kyle McRitchie page has daily updates on the CFS NAO forecast. I see nothing alarming, just the usual day-to-day scatter.

https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=27

[Walsall Wood Snow]

7 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Where is this panic about the NAO coming from? The Kyle McRitchie page has daily updates on the CFS NAO forecast. I see nothing alarming, just the usual day-to-day scatter.

https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=27

Crewecold did provide a link to the anomaly forecasts from the CFS covering November to April. I'll admit I'm out of my depth though in reading charts. Though from what I can tell, though this month looks good, December and January don't. February looks better though. As I say though I don't much understand charts and I tend to rely on others on this forum to give me the gist of them. Though what you say and the graph you posted is reassuring.

[Gael_Force]

12 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Crewecold did provide a link to the anomaly forecasts from the CFS covering November to April. I'll admit I'm out of my depth though in reading charts. Though from what I can tell, though this month looks good, December and January don't. February looks better though. As I say though I don't much understand charts and I tend to rely on others on this forum to give me the gist of them. Though what you say and the graph you posted is reassuring.

Just had a look at this month and what I see does not fill me with confidence in any forecast. Below are the previous November forecast and the current one on the right.

 

Edited November 6, 2016 by Gael_Force

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

As Crewecold says it is both disappointing and concerning that the CFS is suggesting a +NAO developing, especially after so much early potential promise for this coming Winter. Even if such did develop though it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be stuck in a rut and things could change down the line, meaning that perhaps not all of Winter would be a dud. However at the same time doesn't this model have quite a mixed success rate, with it been very close to the mark sometimes and other times been way off? Also before we start getting too worried we better wait to see what the next Glosea and EC seasonal updates suggest. It is a bit deflating though of course, and we've just got to hope for now that it's wrong. Indeed after such promising signs this Autumn that we may finally be breaking free from the recent run of mild Winters it would feel pretty demoralising if we're about to enter yet another one. A lot of water to run under the bridge yet though, so we'll just have to sit tight and see.

May I suggest a hope and desperation thread.  Calm down  the models are struggling at 120 nevermind 3 months in advance chill and enjoy the fireworks.  

[Mucka]

GFS has gone a little stir crazy this morning, look at those crazy eyes.

Interesting UKMO at 144

Frankly though, the models are really struggling - especially with how to model upstream developments so good luck to anyone forecasting what we might be looking at come mid month.

 

[January Snowstorm]

20 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

JS  

The means charts are never any good when the operational picks up a change-

however with the ECM being a tad volatile you end up with a mixture of the Op being correct then when the Op is wrong ( IE over amplified ) then the mean looked correct.

The op picked out the undercutting clearly before the mean - also the mean was WAY to bullish on pushing the atlantic through...

look at todays 06z GFS for instance -a huge turnaround from westerly to pretty much a dead halt in the atlantic at 144...

This morning the ECM and ukmo have moved to more or less show what the gfs was showing yesterday morning (atlantic gaining ground)

For me the gfs is performing best at the moment

[That ECM]

Atlantic gaining control? Hmm not according to this....

[northwestsnow]

29 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

This morning the ECM and ukmo have moved to more or less show what the gfs was showing yesterday morning (atlantic gaining ground)

For me the gfs is performing best at the moment

Not so sure about that js, ecm looks full of potential with the atlantic dead towards the end of the run

Edited November 6, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

A very pleasant end to the Ecm 00z with high pressure in control

[Polar Maritime]

The Atlantic according to the GFS does't directly affect the UK until Wk2, Even then were under a cool N/W flow 'if its correct. Nothing mild on offer,  Autumn continues as does the volatile model output..

Edited November 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Ravelin]

Reasonable agreement between the ECM and GFS on the 0Zs up until t120 but after that they are chalk and cheese. 

t120

ECM  GFS 

 

T168

ECM  GFS 

The GEM at T168 would appear to give more support to the ECM evolution, but even so I'd not trust anything much beyond day 5 at the moment . 

[Cloud 10]

GFS picking up on the possible snow event for Pennines northwards on Wednesday.

 

Also just to confirm that October had a record breaking negative AO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

 

 

 

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Not so sure about that js, ecm looks full of potential with the atlantic dead towards the end of the run

Totally agree with that

[Paul_1978]

I was expecting awful charts this morning after catching up on the thread but then I saw these from the ECM at T+168 and T+192 and they don't seem so bad to me?

No raging Atlantic there. 

Edited November 6, 2016 by Paul_1978

[Zakos]

Don't understand all this worry over the CFS forecast.

The forecast for November above, issued on the 15th of October was completely wrong.

 

This is the most recent forecast for November from the CFS. The previous forecast underestimated blocking in the Atlantic, and was completely wrong with the pattern to our north and east... the siberian block was non existant.

Im struggling to understand how some can write off winter based on a model which was so wrong for November at 15 days out.

I personally wouldn't even look at charts beyond 2 months out... perhaps experienced forecasters can give us ideas, but i have absolutely zero faith in computer models beyond 2 months

Even looking at December... the CFS isnt trending towards a +NAO. its actually doing the reverse.

The CFS forecast for December has changed in the last two weeks.

It has weakened the heights to our south, and increased the blocking over Svalbard/Scandinavia.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Zakos

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me there will be a touch if Atlantic influence but not a train of zoneality.  The ECM on this run looks on the money to me. Yesterday it built heights to our west NW too quickly. The pattern it is showing and timing is more what I think is the way forward. Very happy with the run, very cold last 3rd would follow that with N to NE flow developing as we see heights looking primed to build to our W and NW (retrogression) ? with the deep trough / PV lobe east of Greenland.  

 

BFTP

Edited November 6, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

 ecm looks full of potential 

Full of potential for what? all I see is a grotty looking trough  over the uk followed by a nice high

 

Edited November 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Some chatter about the NAO late last night and overnight from what I can see we have lots of scatter so even if it does go positive it may not be for long

[SMU]

2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

This morning the ECM and ukmo have moved to more or less show what the gfs was showing yesterday morning (atlantic gaining ground)

For me the gfs is performing best at the moment

Not really.

As for the GFS performing the best- I guess thats a bit of a joke yeah?

UKMO most consistent at the moment trying to slide second low at 144

Thats about it really---

Edited November 6, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Zakos]

Yes, ECM has a completely dead atlantic towards day 10 this morning. Plenty of potential as others have said.

The UK experiences westerlies for about 3 days... swiftly being replaced with an easterly flow

Im not sure, but it looks to me like the core of polar vortex is trying to relocate to Scandinavia on this mornings run.

 

Edited November 6, 2016 by Zakos

[Zakos]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not really.

As for the GFS performing the best- I guess thats a bit of a joke yeah?

UKMO most consistent at the moment trying to slide second low at 144

Thats about it really---

Agreed Steve, GFS has been very poor recently IMO

ECM showing atlantic gaining ground??