The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[Polar Maritime]

An overcast day here with drizzle and low cloud. Temp 7.2c

[fizz511]

Ok peeps, time to start believing we're going to get some snow next week(end).

if we all Believe together, we can make this happen!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some of you guys in the W Midlands are going to be sorely disappointed unless we can get the flow more straight NW'ly earlier...I also include myself in not being in optimal position. The issue is that peak instability through Thursday afternoon coincides with winds being too WNW. Great for the likes of Greater Manchester, Stockport and N Peak District etc. We have to pin our hopes on Thursday evening through Friday am with a Cheshire gap streamer setting up to send snow right down into the heart of West Midlands.

This is the sort of wind direction we should be aiming for....unfortunately instability has died off somewhat by this time

This compared to earlier on Thurs when the winds are WNW...

Edited January 8, 2017 by CreweCold

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some of you guys in the W Midlands are going to be sorely disappointed unless we can get the flow more straight NW'ly earlier...I also include myself in not being in optimal position. The issue is that peak instability through Thursday afternoon coincides with winds being too WNW. Great for the likes of Greater Manchester, Stockport and N Peak District etc. We have to pin our hopes on Thursday evening through Friday am with a Cheshire gap streamer setting up to send snow right down into the heart of West Midlands.

This is the sort of wind direction we should be aiming for....unfortunately instability has died off somewhat by this time

This compared to earlier on Thurs when the winds are WNW...

Evening CC, Don't we always say get the cold in and see what happens Also a trough or two can do wonders....Fax charts is me over the next few days

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some of you guys in the W Midlands are going to be sorely disappointed unless we can get the flow more straight NW'ly earlier...I also include myself in not being in optimal position. The issue is that peak instability through Thursday afternoon coincides with winds being too WNW. Great for the likes of Greater Manchester, Stockport and N Peak District etc. We have to pin our hopes on Thursday evening through Friday am with a Cheshire gap streamer setting up to send snow right down into the heart of West Midlands.

This is the sort of wind direction we should be aiming for....unfortunately instability has died off somewhat by this time

This compared to earlier on Thurs when the winds are WNW...

Agree, winds are too westerly, this is going to Stockport, ESE track through Derbyshire, and I've not seen a flake of snow this season

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree, winds are too westerly, this is going to Stockport, ESE track through Derbyshire, and I've not seen a flake of snow this season

I can't disagree mate...I've seen it all too often in the last 10 years. Leads to heartbreak here as locations literally 10-15 miles away are buried. No idea why we can't just get a proper straight NW'ly anymore. 

The ECM and UKMO aren't digging the troughing a far SW as they were yesterday which is why the NW'ly gets flattened off to more of a W-WNW'ly during Thursday day.

As it stands, we have a 12 hr window to get a streamer set up under ideal circumstances (uppers, wind direction etc).

If I get nothing out of this, I am literally going to throw the pram, let alone the toys out of it.

Edited January 8, 2017 by CreweCold

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree, winds are too westerly, this is going to Stockport, ESE track through Derbyshire, and I've not seen a flake of snow this season

ECM                                                              GFS                                                              UKMO

All THREE for Thursday have a strong Northwesterly....Cheshire gap looks very promising and at short notice Four days away yet anyway

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

ECM                                                              GFS                                                              UKMO

All THREE for Thursday have a strong Northwesterly....Cheshire gap looks very promising and at short notice Four days away yet anyway

 

That is not a true NW'ly though Dancer. If anything that's a W'ly for the west mids (remember surface winds are slightly backed in relation to the isobars).

This is an example of a true NW'ly...unfortunately a day later when the best of the instability has passed and pressure is rising from the west...

Depending on the progression between Thursday day and this chart Fri midday, I MIGHT be ok in my location if we can sneak more of a NW'ly element for longer overnight Thurs. I fear for people any further S than me though- they may see nowt.

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by CreweCold

[cyclonic happiness]

We'll miss it, we always miss everything!!   

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That is not a true NW'ly though Dancer. If anything that's a W'ly for the west mids (remember surface winds are slightly backed in relation to the isobars).

This is an example of a true NW'ly...unfortunately a day later when the best of the instability has passed and pressure is rising from the west...

 

Yes! agreed to a point, but this charts is showing strong winds and any showers will be carried inland especially for the west of our region....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

37 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

ECM                                                              GFS                                                              UKMO

All THREE for Thursday have a strong Northwesterly....Cheshire gap looks very promising and at short notice Four days away yet anyway

 

Wrong angle for us

this is the best 

Edited January 8, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Polar Maritime]

Moderate rain dull and cloudy here, Temp 6.8c

[dudleyweather1]

This looks really marginal to me.  If i were doing any planning, i'd certainly plan for the worst, situations like this have a tendency to evolve at very short notice, changing their nature.  I'll certainly be keeping a very close eye on this over the coming days, but don't expect any clear pattern to emerge.  I think we'll most likely be watching this one all the way to Saturday/Sunday,

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, dudleyweather1 said:

This looks really marginal to me.  If i were doing any planning, i'd certainly plan for the worst, situations like this have a tendency to evolve at very short notice, changing their nature.  I'll certainly be keeping a very close eye on this over the coming days, but don't expect any clear pattern to emerge.  I think we'll most likely be watching this one all the way to Saturday/Sunday,

Turning mild from the west Sat 14th, 2 day blast, about 4th GFS run on the bounce now, could even be mild for high levels in midlands

[Walsall Wood Snow]

My expectations for here aren't particularly high at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if we get maybe one or more brief snow showers which at a push could leave a dusting (which would be more than I've seen all Winter thus far and even that I'm not overly confident for) but I've got little hope we'll see substantial accumulations. It'll all come down to nowcasting of course, but experience tells me to expect little. Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Wales and the northwest of England look as though they could do quite well though. Wouldn't be surprised if the Peak District contingent do well also but here I'm expecting nothing to little. Same old story. I try not to be pessimistic but at least at this stage it will save disappointment and at least leaves the slim possibility of being pleasantly surprised. There's been too many short lived cold outbreaks the last 3 Winters that have amounted to zilch snow wise (apart from brief and often unsettled falls) to get my hopes up this time though.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Kieran]

Snow showers drifting into the Midlands (especially the West Midlands) on Thursday evening according to the 12z GFS. Considering the winds will be strong I don't think it's out of the question to think that much of the Midlands could see some decent snow showers....

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kieran

[WillinGlossop]

2c rain/graupel/ice pellets mix atm.... hoping for some of the white stuff thu/fri/sat.... gem shows a cheshire streamer on latest update....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looking good for you Will! and others high up, not sure about low Stafford, the town is just 81m asl, I'm 23m up Radford Bank

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better flow? seems like it, to come to more of the NW and W Midlands

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, Kieran said:

Snow showers drifting into the Midlands (especially the West Midlands) on Thursday evening according to the 12z GFS. Considering the winds will be strong I don't think it's out of the question to think that much of the Midlands could see some decent snow showers....

 

2 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

2c rain/graupel/ice pellets mix atm.... hoping for some of the white stuff thu/fri/sat.... gem shows a cheshire streamer on latest update....

Couldn't Agree more with you both....With a strong NORTHWESTERLY come Thursday hoping for plenty of SNOW SHOWERS

Edited January 9, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[pegg24]

Things can I change i know. But East Midlands looks very dry over the weekend we normally have a snow shield anyway lol.

[Ian Ballinger]

How is this "cold spell" any different from anything else we have seen so far this winter?

[Chunky Flake]

I hope we see some snow as we seem to get jack super duper these days!

[Dancerwithwings]

8 hours ago, Ian Ballinger said:

How is this "cold spell" any different from anything else we have seen so far this winter?

You've just answered your own Q

[The Wolf]

Desperate to see some snow! It seems ages since I last saw some. It must be the same for quite a few on here as well

Really hope we all get a covering. We deserve it.