North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[weatherobsuk]

Beeb weather and Manchester Airport METAR going for mist/fog overnight and into tomorrow across parts of Cheshire and Derbyshire, With Buxton currently reporting a hourly -0.6'c drop in temperature which ties in with the GFS minima's forecast for overnight. Could be a good inversion setup for the morning if anyone is up at early am.

[Miamay]

A very cold night with first proper frost in parts. Thank god im off to bed after a slow and quiet night shift 

[SP1986]

Not that cold in the end, classic cold welling at lower elevations, whilst higher elevations were milder. Textbook situation.

Minimum in Heswall 3.0C with only the slightest hint of patchy frost on cars and grass. Meanwhile down towards Mid-Wirral, Thingwall was frosty and icy. 

I think the inversion ceiling was around 80-90m asl on the coast.. that's what I saw this morning anyway.

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by SP1986

[julie253]

Quite a thick covering of ice on my car this morning. Love these nice crisp frosty mornings.

[SP1986]

Ice in Wallasey? impressive. i noticed Albert Dock got a minimum of -0.2C this morning which is highly unusual .

[weatherobsuk]

I took a short walk around town early am this morning and there was frost just starting to coat across cars and susceptible surfaces, completely clouded over by the time sunrise had come before briefly turning into blue skies. Typically though it didn't take too long until the convection re-layered that cloud layer back to 7/8. Looking forward to what the weather brings overnight in terms of predicted rainfall, winds for a short time, and average temperatures into the weekend.

[dodge]

Chilly end to this week with possibility of maybe a few showers turning wintry over high ground driven in, on a strong north westerly.  It will feel much different than the damp, mild, murky weather of today thats for sure.

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, dodgeredee said:

Chilly end to this week withthicknesssibility of maybe a few showe rs turning wintry over high ground driven in, on a strong north westerly.  It will feel much different than the damp, mild, murky weather of today thats for sure.

Dont think the snow showers would be restricted to high ground only

Ok the 850 temperature is not brilliant -5 to -6 but the thicKness levels

Are showing 528 a classic Cheshire Gap conveyor belt of showers could be possible especially overnight were showers could turn to snow at quite low levels

C.S

[Chris.R]

521 DAM thicknesses showing for a time on Friday morning on the latest GFS. Not good enough for my location but people over 20 miles inland should see some snow falling. I am more interested in the convective aspect of the north-westerly. 5/6th December 2011 comes to mind.

[SP1986]

Perhaps a squally thundery nature to the showers Chris?

[Chris.R]

54 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Perhaps a squally thundery nature to the showers Chris?

 Yeah that's what I'm thinking. Graupel too. I love that sort of exciting lake effect convection. One of the only good things with the weather around here. :-)

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Dont think the snow showers would be restricted to high ground only

Ok the 850 temperature is not brilliant -5 to -6 but the thicKness levels

Are showing 528 a classic Cheshire Gap conveyor belt of showers could be possible especially overnight were showers could turn to snow at quite low levels

C.S

It's no classic Cheshire gap scenario. Winds are too westerly so the only areas which will get the shower stream is Mid and north Cheshire northwards; Greater Manchester and the like. Reminds me of the '09 and '10 spells when the same thing happened. Winds need to be direct NW'ly for a true Cheshire gap streamer to set up which would push the showers right down into Staffs and west Midlands.

You can see there is nothing remotely NW'ly about surface winds and steering flow would most likely be westerly.

Edited November 14, 2016 by CreweCold

[iand61]

What a depressing day's weather it's been up here.

wall to wall cloud and a constant drizzle, nothing heavy but as Peter Kay said, that fine stuff that soaks you through and nothing whatsoever to give any noticeable benefit from the mild temperatures.

never mind, at least the chance of something more interesting by weekend.

[Chris.R]

Just a note to say that the temperature which has been stable at 10.9°C all evening has suddenly started shooting up, and is now currently rocketing its way up through the 12's. Maybe a wind shift or because it's high tide. 

[cheshire snow]

A very interesting 5 to 7 days coming up keep your eyes on the low

Saturday night into Sunday could be some heavy snow on its northern

Edge especially high ground.

C.S

[Chris.R]

 Yes, interesting times indeed. A fairly potent north-westerly with convective and wintry elements, and then Saturday night's potential. A cold surface flow ahead of the low as well. Needs watching closely. 

[SP1986]

I think frost is out of the question for coastal areas for the next 7 to 12 days or so... I never realised how difficult it can be to achieve frost on a west facing hill near the sea.. however for here the projection for the lowest air temperature is circa +3C which seems fairly realistic for the set up. However hopefully we will have some exciting convection too.

Edited November 15, 2016 by SP1986

[Chris.R]

52 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I think frost is out of the question for coastal areas for the next 7 to 12 days or so... I never realised how difficult it can be to achieve frost on a west facing hill near the sea.. however for here the projection for the lowest air temperature is circa +3C which seems fairly realistic for the set up. However hopefully we will have some exciting convection too.

 Totally agree. :-)

Edited November 15, 2016 by Chris.R

[dodge]

Just enjoying probably the last day this week were I can sit with a sleeveless T-shirt on and no heating.  Interesting end of week action with dropping temperatures, frequent showers (could be wintry), and then Sunday's possible zippy low.  The placing and direction of that one, still to be clarified at this stage.

[cheshire snow]

Snow row now up to 14 for Liverpool for Thursday /Friday 

C.S

[Chris.R]

17 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Snow row now up to 14 for Liverpool for Thursday /Friday 

C.S

 A slim chance in the early hours of Friday I would say  if we  can catch a very heavy shower. A noticeable lightning risk as well.  

[Iceaxecrampon]

METO LATEST:

Sunday 20th November

A spell of more persistent snow and strong northeasterly winds, with potential blizzards on the hills but an uncertain forecast so please check back.

Issued at: 0246 on Wed 16 Nov 2016

[Chris.R]

 Massive toys out of prams drama in the model thread today and it's not even winter yet! Meanwhile something rather lively and interesting for us in the next few days. 

[Chris.R]

56 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

METO LATEST:

Sunday 20th November

A spell of more persistent snow and strong northeasterly winds, with potential blizzards on the hills but an uncertain forecast so please check back.

Issued at: 0246 on Wed 16 Nov 2016

Hey  where is that from exactly? Is it from one of  the Mountain forecasts? 

[dodge]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Massive toys out of prams drama in the model thread today and it's not even winter yet! Meanwhile something rather lively and interesting for us in the next few days. 

Exactly, there's uncertainty pinning down the weather for this weekend, never mind what the setup will be like at the start of December... I don't mind the ones offering considered and unbiased observations, but the up & down emotional drama you get after every model run.  I don't know how some people make it through the winter!