SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[jethro]

Morning all, a grey, damp start to the week here, feeling mild at 4.9c. Fingers crossed it may get a little more interesting as the week goes by. Taken all the Christmas decorations down now but have left the lights on my little grey spruce trees, hoping to see them illuminating snow at the end of the week.

[jethro]

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Is it worth going up to the Mendips to see a bit of slushy snow - not sure myself.........

If we get anything I'll post a pic then you can judge whether or not it's worth it.

[khodds]

I'm glad I didn't get my hopes up. Looking like a 48hr period then back to normal after that.. hope the 00z were on one but we have all been here before haven't we! 

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

I'm glad I didn't get my hopes up. Looking like a 48hr period then back to normal after that.. hope the 00z were on one but we have all been here before haven't we! 

And the further south you are the less inclement it will be..

[khodds]

Yep. Hey ho. Never mind. It's better than the Atlantic train starting up. It's going to be an interesting spring/summer I feel.. (I know it's a while away) it's been so dry compared to recent winters

[That ECM]

The Northerly is not going to be great for us down here and they very rarely are but there is still much interest moving forward. For us, the high would not have to drift to far NE for things to be fun. We will see but I am still hopeful.

 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

The Northerly is not going to be great for us down here and they very rarely are but there is still much interest moving forward. For us, the high would not have to drift to far NE for things to be fun. We will see but I am still hopeful.

 

IT's always interesting to watch and see how things " pan out", however in line with the chaos patterns process, this year has been repetitive, almost cyclic, so right now I remain unconvinced of anything more than some 2-3 day spells throughout the remaining winter months. Time will tell, and I prefer the mathematics approach rather then the reading of the tarot cards..

Edited January 9, 2017 by Dorsetbred

[That ECM]

The mathematical approach is often as useful as the tarot card approach as in change one number and everything is very different. The ens are a good example of this.  

Edited January 9, 2017 by That ECM

[Mapantz]

Mornin' you can tell that rain is on its way, it has that look about it. The wind is beginning to pick up too.

Temp: 9.9°C - Hum: 88% - Dew: 8°C - Bar: 1022.93hPa - Wind: WSW @ 10mph.

[Dorsetbred]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Mornin' you can tell that rain is on its way, it has that look about it. The wind is beginning to pick up too.

Temp: 9.9°C - Hum: 88% - Dew: 8°C - Bar: 1022.93hPa - Wind: WSW @ 10mph.

You're on here early today, smell the rain coming?

[Rich_Clements]

Good morning all.

 

The rain has arrived.  still mild 

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

You're on here early today, smell the rain coming?

Waiting for deliveries, so I'm having to stay put. That usually means tomorrow and Wednesday as well lol

[Nights King]

2 hours ago, SteveB said:

Is it worth going up to the Mendips to see a bit of slushy snow - not sure myself.........

Depends how much of anything falls Steve but then it also depends how long it was you last seen snow I suppose as to weather it is worth it?

I'll post if anything starts falling and pictures if it starts to stay on deck as im sure Jeth will do also  

If I was you id wait confirmation it falls as snow and then wait for radar to show meaningful showers approaching then drive up top for a walk of the dogs?  To see it fall is part of the magic for me regardless of it settling.

[festivalking]

Looking good for Dartmoor for some snow Thursday - Saturday. Mind you have seen forecasts for snow switch here with 12 hours to go so not sure if it will happen. IMBY I'm just off the high ground at 200 metres so not expecting too much but anything above 300 metres should do well! Wet and horrible here today though! 

[Nights King]

7 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Looking good for Dartmoor for some snow Thursday - Saturday. Mind you have seen forecasts for snow switch here with 12 hours to go so not sure if it will happen. IMBY I'm just off the high ground at 200 metres so not expecting too much but anything above 300 metres should do well! Wet and horrible here today though! 

You stand with a great chance with northerly exposure, often somersets showers get munched by Welch mountains leaving us with very little.

[festivalking]

17 minutes ago, Nights King said:

You stand with a great chance with northerly exposure, often somersets showers get munched by Welch mountains leaving us with very little.

Here's hoping, previous years have shown and as you say its the best set up for here. Easterly or North Easterly incursions are often cold and sunny affairs where as North Westers we get more ppn but tends to be more marginal. In anycase I'll be nipping up the road to princetown (only 3 miles from here) come Saturday to see whats about. Secret is to get up early before the janners invade! 

[festivalking]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=sw&fcTime=1484179200

Not a very inspiring weather warning for the vast majority of the south west if snow is your drug of choice 

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by festivalking

[Nights King]

32 minutes ago, festivalking said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=sw&fcTime=1484179200

Not a very inspiring weather warning for the vast majority of the south west if snow is your drug of choice 

 

That screams Welch mountains to me.. 

 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Looking forward to the 2cmm-5cm possibilities..   Rain here at the moment 8.3c.

[Frosty_wsm]

56 minutes ago, festivalking said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=sw&fcTime=1484179200

Not a very inspiring weather warning for the vast majority of the south west if snow is your drug of choice 

 

Looking at the yellow snow  warning for the southwest on my weather app it states affected areas as Cornwall, Devon & Somerset for occasional snow showers, that's a larger area then what that map in your link shows, time will tell and no doubt the warning will chop and change or  even disappear all  together lol. 

[karlos1983]

It will change I put money on it. 

We should see Jay from Cardiff Thursday evening 

[Dorsetbred]

11 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Looking at the yellow snow  warning

If it is"yellow" snow then we should be warning people..

[warmintim]

32 minutes ago, ARTDEMOLE said:

Looking forward to the 2cmm-5cm possibilities..   Rain here at the moment 8.3c.

With the proviso that these are currently for parts much further west! I'm hoping to see something on Thursday - it's been a long time since Jan 2013 - the last couple of winters have both managed a pathetic slushy deposit in air that was just too warm - maybe this will be different. Its also fascinating that the models are struggling to find a common solution at such short range. While I'd love the outcome to be more ECM, my head is nagging away at the sod's law of snow forecasting - worst model wins... 

[Zephyr]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It will change I put money on it. 

We should see Jay from Cardiff Thursday evening 

The only issue is will it snow in Cardiff? 

[Frosty_wsm]

35 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

If it is"yellow" snow then we should be warning people..

Would make for interesting photos though don't you think