SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[AWD]

1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

Quite a big upgrade on the latest UKMO which would bring snow to much of the SW. Isn't the UKMO more accurate in the short term?

Another example of how quickly things can change.

It normally is but there is a lack of publicly available UKMO data available, thus making it hard to draw any concrete conclusions from one chart type.

[Mapantz]

The FAX charts have been showing that little development for the past 24 hours or so, but as AWD mentions, there's not a lot on offer from the UKMO to delve in to detail. Snow North of the M4 would be my bet.. 

[Dorsetbred]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The immensely powerful squall line has just passed through here! Thar she goes..

All 7 minutes of it...

[karlos1983]

GFS raises interest on the 0.25

worth keeping an eye on!

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS raises interest on the 0.25

worth keeping an eye on!

Oh goodee, I'm off to Halfords to buy some snow chains, some salt and a shovel, now then..

[knocker]

Yes indeed, Particularly on the moors

[Mapantz]

Nice little temp drop now. from 10.6°C at 16:48 to 7.8°C at 16:45 - Much better than 10+

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The FAX charts have been showing that little development for the past 24 hours or so, but as AWD mentions, there's not a lot on offer from the UKMO to delve in to detail. Snow North of the M4 would be my bet.. 

Everyone talks about the M4 being a dividing line, but I live north of the M4 and south of the M40 and in my experience it's always the M40 marks the border. The stokenchurch cutting through the Chilterns in particular. You can guarantee storms will not come south of the corridor, nor snow. It's like there's a forcefield on the Bucks/Oxon border. Of course, if I'm proved wrong and I do get some snow I shall spam the thread with pictures!

[AWD]

12z Arpege doesn't have anything other than some wintriness on top of the moors up until end of day Friday;

With so many different outcomes re PPN distribution on offer come the end of the week, it really is nothing more than "fun" looking at any one particular model.

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Oh goodee, I'm off to Halfords to buy some snow chains, some salt and a shovel, now then..

Lol Dorset, do I detect a hint of sarcasm in your post 

Edited January 9, 2017 by karlos1983

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Everyone talks about the M4 being a dividing line, but I live north of the M4 and south of the M40 and in my experience it's always the M40 marks the border. The stokenchurch cutting through the Chilterns in particular. You can guarantee storms will not come south of the corridor, nor snow. It's like there's a forcefield on the Bucks/Oxon border. Of course, if I'm proved wrong and I do get some snow I shall spam the thread with pictures!

It was me being a little obtuse to be fair, i'm not a fan of the M4 being used.

It would be better if it was "North or South of Lacock"  

[Frosty hollows]

Little squall line developing over the Chilterns. Temp dropped from 9.8 to 7.6C 

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It was me being a little obtuse to be fair, i'm not a fan of the M4 being used.

It would be better if it was "North or South of Lacock"  

I just wouldn't want anyone on here thinking i'm getting all snow when it's stopped snowing 6 miles up the road!

[Frosty_wsm]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It was me being a little obtuse to be fair, i'm not a fan of the M4 being used.

It would be better if it was "North or South of Lacock"  

North of the English channel would be a much better term I reckon, North  of the m4 phrase should be an instant forum ban 

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

North of the English channel would be a much better term I reckon, North  of the m4 phrase should be an instant forum ban 

Who knows maybe this one will be south of WSM 

I still have huge doubts over this snow potential, just can't see it making it into Bristol, Somerset, Dorset or Wilts area because of wales. Cornwall and Devon away from coasts and with elevation would be my best guess. 

[karlos1983]

Liam Dutton seems to think a Dangler is likely!! Get into a Dangler on High ground and that could be KABLOOM!!

[Nights King]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Liam Dutton seems to think a Dangler is likely!! Get into a Dangler on High ground and that could be KABLOOM!!

We need that wind to veer more westerly to power up a severn streamer 

[matt111]

Stopped raining now leaving a total of 5.0mm. Temperatures dropped quite a bit since, currently 6.5°C. 

[khodds]

BLIMEY! thought this was the MAD thread then when I came back to 43 new posts... what gives..?! 

[AWD]

Just now, khodds said:

BLIMEY! thought this was the MAD thread then when I came back to 43 new posts... what gives..?! 

Some sleet is expected on the top of Exmoor

[khodds]

Lol! Thought as much! 

[Nights King]

34 minutes ago, khodds said:

Lol! Thought as much! 

Apparently we may get the rare sight of being able to see ones own breath outside on Friday! 

[Dorsetbred]

28 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Apparently we may get the rare sight of being able to see ones own breath outside on Friday! 

For us southerners, below the M4 that's severe weather

[khodds]

30 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Apparently we may get the rare sight of being able to see ones own breath outside on Friday! 

Oooh I can't wait for that!!!  

 

[khodds]

It's lovely seeing charts in the not so distant future showing cold and possible snow opportunities, but it always comes down to a nowcast situation really. 

Im still scarred after that time we were meant to have a channel low but it stayed south in France a few years back. Now I can't get excited until I actually see snow fall from the sky  

 

And settle. Settling is important. None of this melting on impact. Not that I'm fussy at all