SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[Nights King]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

Latest GFS 12z run gives Mullender a little going away present just before his hols;

We shall see.

[khodds]

Still refusing to believe it... too far away in my opinion. Been burned too many times before. It's bound to downgrade. 

[Nights King]

12 minutes ago, khodds said:

Still refusing to believe it... too far away in my opinion. Been burned too many times before. It's bound to downgrade. 

Downgrade... you mean vanish as it is less than 1cm on that map..

[Mapantz]

For someone (in the mod thread) who is addicted to using selfie sticks, you'd think they'd know the difference between your and you're, wouldn't you? 

Rude and arrogant is an understatement!

Edited January 7, 2017 by Mapantz

[Zephyr]

If it don't downgrade it will all move east at last moment again, like a few years back 

[MidnightSnow]

Well at least we can follow showers on the radar next week with a slither of hope. 

It's been years!

[Frosty hollows]

I used to take everything in the MAD thread with a pinch of salt..runs ten days out? Seriously? The last time I posted I was subjected to a load of abuse from 'more experienced than you are' types. I think I was eventually proved right in any case. Real shame there's a minority of arrogant self obsessed posters because some of the stuff is really informative and there are people like knocker who are super knowledgable, but don't make you feel like an idiot because you suggest a run could pan out another way. But, even I'm feeling next weekend MIGHT be on for some snow.  Hope I haven't jinxed it by saying that!

[fromey]

Some tweets from the pros 

 

[MidnightSnow]

Just a matter of time before we hear the dreaded "Snow north of the M4 Corridor" lol 

[Dorsetbred]

Light drizzle and 9.1°C. Must be January...

[Zephyr]

Did the south west get a channel streamer around 2010 from a NW'ly that popped up out of no where?

Edited January 7, 2017 by Zephyr

[fromey]

34 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Did the south west get a channel streamer around 2010 from a NW'ly that popped up out of no where?

I know we got one at the end of 2009 I believe , straight off the Bristol Channel which gave a nice covering 

[Zephyr]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

I know we got one at the end of 2009 I believe , straight off the Bristol Channel which gave a nice covering 

Ah yeah that was it thanks for that ! I was trying to find some pics of the event and was looking at 2010 and wondering.

 

m4 corridor for 528? 

[khodds]

Been out for the evening, coming home and caught up on the MAD thread.. still refusing to believe we are in line for anything snowy until +T24.. and even then it'll probably be taken away from us. I'm usually an optimist as well... slap me if I'm proved wrong. 

[Mapantz]

Quite a nice run of consistency out to 7 days..

There are many factors when it comes to snow falling, but once the cold gets here, and perhaps some precipitation is being modelled in a reasonable timeframe - a weather station with temp/humidity/dew point is the perfect tool for gauging the chance of it being wintry. It's not foolproof of course, but you won't go far wrong!

I remember some years back, we had some torrential rainfall with rivers flowing down the streets, and then it started to become snow - the air temp was above 5°C, I remember it clear as day. As soon as the heavier precip started falling, it was was helping the isotherm level to come down, and the snow got heavier, so much so, it was creating slush with the soaking roads, but it soon covered everything white. I was amazed, because it was barely 30 minutes after torrential rain.

[khodds]

15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Quite a nice run of consistency out to 7 days..

There are many factors when it comes to snow falling, but once the cold gets here, and perhaps some precipitation is being modelled in a reasonable timeframe - a weather station with temp/humidity/dew point is the perfect tool for gauging the chance of it being wintry. It's not foolproof of course, but you won't go far wrong!

I remember some years back, we had some torrential rainfall with rivers flowing down the streets, and then it started to become snow - the air temp was above 5°C, I remember it clear as day. As soon as the heavier precip started falling, it was was helping the isotherm level to come down, and the snow got heavier, so much so, it was creating slush with the soaking roads, but it soon covered everything white. I was amazed, because it was barely 30 minutes after torrential rain.

So remind me of the parameters we need to look at on a weather station.. dew points of less than 0c isn't it? Mine one lays temperature humidity and dew point.. it's been so long since we had snow I can't remember!

i remember when the above happened.. it was a Monday I think, rained all morning then turned to snow and settled... really odd as it was the middle of a day and hardly ever settles after rain! 

[Nights King]

Well I see the start of winter is coming together for you all here for next week.. 

Who needs models when you have NK.. 

[khodds]

Just go on holiday NK... it's for the greater good  

WINTER IS COMING......

or is it....?  

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Just go on holiday NK... it's for the greater good  

WINTER IS COMING......

or is it....?  

Maybe I have Targaryan blood and snow just doesn't like me 

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, khodds said:

So remind me of the parameters we need to look at on a weather station.. dew points of less than 0c isn't it? Mine one lays temperature humidity and dew point.. it's been so long since we had snow I can't remember!

i remember when the above happened.. it was a Monday I think, rained all morning then turned to snow and settled... really odd as it was the middle of a day and hardly ever settles after rain! 

This is where it gets tricky. I've had dew points of 2 to 3°C before, with a temp of around freezing, and it has been snowing. Likewise with a temp of 4 or 5°C and a dew  point of below -1°C
Generally though, temps of 1 - 2°C with dew points of zero and below. Another helpful one, is obtaining your wetbulb temperature. This can be calculated online using your pressure reading, temperature and relative humidity, and if you can come up with a wetbulb temperature of zero and below, you stand a good chance of snow.

The wetbulb temperature is quite important, that's why it is possible to get snow with higher air temperatures and lower humidity readings.

[karlos1983]

3 hours ago, MidnightSnow said:

Just a matter of time before we hear the dreaded "Snow north of the M4 Corridor" lol 

My petition to have the bloody M4 moved to N France was denied last winter. I really hate that motorway with a passion!!

 

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

My petition to have the bloody M4 moved to N France was denied last winter. I really hate that motorway with a passion!!

 

Also I find M4 is always so vague...

[karlos1983]

I've had the most amazing afternoon and evening with the wife, turns out we do actually really enjoy each other's company! 

oh well, back to reality tomorrow at mid-day when the terrors return!  

Are we getting excited about a North westerly!!! I'll take it I must admit!

i used to have friends in Greece, but our relationship has come under much duress this week, I think it's over tbh 

Edited January 8, 2017 by karlos1983

[Nights King]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

I've had the most amazing afternoon and evening with the wife, turns out we do actually really enjoy each other's company! 

oh well, back to reality tomorrow at mid-day when the terrors return!  

Are we getting excited about a North westerly!!! I'll take it I must admit!

Im excited but keep willing the models to bring it all forward by just a few hours each run.. 

[karlos1983]

Meanwhile in Torrebruna Italy today