Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Summer Sun]

A poor end to ECM for cold it must be said

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Some promise on the ECM at 192/216 materialises itself into nothing much of interest, as you can probably tell by the lack of comments!

Pretty perculiar chart.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016120712/ECH1-240.GIF?07-0

 

 

 

Split vortex or no split vortex, the result for these islands is much the same.

[nick sussex]

Looks like the USA has stolen our cold and snow yet again! Their original NCEP monthly forecast had suggested a greater likelihood of milder conditions but as their fortunes improved ours went down the pan. Oh well at least we can console ourselves in Europe that we're less likely to get our head blown off going to buy a pint of milk.

Anyway after that mini tirade the ECM desperately tries to raise some interest but the jet stream is far too strong. It does look similar upstream to the GFS at day ten and we're left to chase some amplification. Another generally tragic evening for coldies bar the scraps thrown to us in some of the GEFS and the GFS  Pre-Xmas Special.

 

[swfc]

like previous posters have said ecm is pretty pony tbh how ever you view it.extreme cold going into the usa and for us rather a strange looking 240hr chart.subject to change as ever but maybe not good from a cold perspective imo.split vortex and backgroung signals are what they are but this seems to have a familier look about it

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A poor end to ECM for cold it must be said

 

There's a surprise

Coldies need a sense of humour to get through a British winter.

Ecm 12z ends on a high note 

Edited December 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[blizzard81]

Well, I for one find the ecm run extremely encouraging. Great continuity from it's 12z run yesterday. It is a run which is very much in line with Glacier Point's recent thoughts. Namely pressure rise to the east of the UK retrogressing towards the UK. Towards the end of the run there are clear signs of a pressure rise to the north west - just like the gfs Again highlighted by GP as the thing to look out for in the run up to xmas.

[Matthew.]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's a surprise

Coldies need a sense of humour to get through a British winter.

Ecm 12z ends on a high note 

Temperatures at least reverting to average from a coldies perspective though

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like the USA has stolen our cold and snow yet again! Their original NCEP monthly forecast had suggested a greater likelihood of milder conditions but as their fortunes improved ours went down the pan. Oh well at least we can console ourselves in Europe that we're less likely to get our head blown off going to buy a pint of milk.

Anyway after that mini tirade the ECM desperately tries to raise some interest but the jet stream is far too strong. It does look similar upstream to the GFS at day ten and we're left to chase some amplification. Another generally tragic evening for coldies bar the scraps thrown to us in some of the GEFS and the GFS  Pre-Xmas Special.

 

Day 12 is when the fun starts.Amplification

[Frosty.]

Just now, Matthew Wilson said:

Temperatures at least reverting to average from a coldies perspective though

True, just like the GEFS mean, surface cold would return with similar conditions to a few days ago.

[ArHu3]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's a surprise

Coldies need a sense of humour to get through a British winter.

Ecm 12z ends on a high note 

that's a very big red ball, can't you see it punching on to Scandinavia?

[The Beast From The East]

Just been reading up about the polar vortex and what it's expected to do and how it will affect the weather as we go forward . Looks like the US will do ok as per usual.

 http://mashable.com/2016/12/06/cold-wave-polar-vortex-us-canada/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link#8DMUMhYvD9qk

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

that's a very big red ball, can't you see it punching on to Scandinavia?

I would like to think so..but in any case it looks like settled chilly weather will be returning by mid month or a little sooner, at least further east and south.

[nick sussex]

 

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Day 12 is when the fun starts.Amplification

I think we were saying that last week and the week before! Don't bank on any amplification until it counts down and appears closer in. Certainly given recent events don't fall for any of the evil GFS mind games! lol

[blizzard81]

Will be interesting to hear about the ecm clusters later. Matt H said last night's suite were 50/50 between mobile westerly and blocked. This morning's suite aparantly increased the number of mobile runs. However, the last 3 (maybe more) ecm op runs have gone down the blocked route. Will we at last break the deadlocked bimodal suites in favour of blocking? I do hope so

[Stuie]

I think there is some progression from the ECM from the 0Z to 12Z(ok 12 hr difference but). The HP is downplayed somewhat and is nudging west. More cold being fed into the "right lung" of the PV with this run. We are looking for trends at this distance but certainly not a mirror image. Ridging of the HP is definitely being suppressed on this run.

0Z

12Z

Heights are rising over the pole to keep the damn PV split too.. Don`t shoot the messenger, just my obs.

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

I think we were saying that last week and the week before! Don't bank on any amplification until it counts down and appears closer in. Certainly given recent events don't fall for any of the evil GFS mind games! lol

Haha im just in for the craic now nothing else the way this LRF has turned out and all the promised charts nothing could disappoint me anymore.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Haha im just in for the craic now nothing else the way this LRF has turned out and all the promised charts nothing could disappoint me anymore.

yes its only early days and i think most have model fatigue!!! tbh i think the best bet is not to get hung up on long range forecasts ete and stick with the short term models ete.the pv is split but the sporadic movements of any heighths generally wants to leave us fine dry.the weather will do its dance and maybe wel get a chance!!!

[Grimers]

The NAO and AO forecasts are either neutral, slightly positive or slightly negative suggesting milder conditions are likely to continue over the next few days.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Grimers

[booferking]

Make of that what you will. 

[phil nw.]

The ECM Op chart at day 10 is pretty much in line with the majority of gefs clusters at the same time frame.No surprise to see the Azores ridging towards the UK in week 2 as this has been the favoured evolution in the ens for some days now.

It's just a case of where the main cell settles but a look at the ens graphs favours a rather cold and quiet period and little if any rainfall.

At best if we see the high just a little to the east(p9 for example) then there's a chance of some quite cold surface air with some frosts which at least would feel more seasonal even though it's only a poor second prize compared to a deep cold easterly and snow.

[swilliam]

Short ensembles look distinctly colder than previously - at least in Holland

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, swilliam said:

Short ensembles look distinctly colder than previously - at least in Holland

The extended ones will most likely show a dichotomy once more I would imagine.

[NeilN]

If the further outlook is frosty and dry, it's just as good. This is NOTHING like winter 2015-6. 

[snowbunting]

6 depressions/lows deflected to the north of the Uk on the gfs 12z when in recent years they would have nailed the western isles. 

I cannot agree with you on this one Blasty.. winter is far from over. 

 

 

[phil nw.]

A few more recent posts have been removed-no model discussion.For moans or general banter please use the other thread here

Thanks.