Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I find the model output absolutely astonishing at the moment. The difference between yesterday's ecm 12z and this morning's 00z is nothing short of amazing. One of the biggest differences I have seen in 13 years of model watching.

The spread told us ther was a fair cluster much deeper up there (it's movement told us it was low height cluster)

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I find the model output absolutely astonishing at the moment. The difference between yesterday's ecm 12z and this morning's 00z is nothing short of amazing. One of the biggest differences I have seen in 13 years of model watching.

The difference between the GFS and ECM outputs inside day 10 is also pretty staggering in my opinion!

[bluearmy]

By the way, the most significant part of that ECM op is nowhere near our part of the hemisphere

look at the day 10 NH plot - upstream

[knocker]

Is it a matter of timing with the ecm?

EDIT

I seem to posted at the same time as blue

Edited December 8, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I find the model output absolutely astonishing at the moment. The difference between yesterday's ecm 12z and this morning's 00z is nothing short of amazing. One of the biggest differences I have seen in 13 years of model watching.

It would have been a massive outlier against yesterday's ensembles for N Europe. I suppose it should therefore be held lightly for now!

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I find the model output absolutely astonishing at the moment. The difference between yesterday's ecm 12z and this morning's 00z is nothing short of amazing. One of the biggest differences I have seen in 13 years of model watching.

In other words. The models really don't have a clue. 

Edited December 8, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[Weathizard]

The state of the vortex on both ECM & GFS at day 10 is staggering, it's absolutely in pieces.

 

 

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The state of the vortex on both ECM & GFS at day 10 is staggering, it's absolutely in pieces.

 

 

Looks like a bomb has  went of and blew the vortex to pieces .

[Ravelin]

I see its been commented on already but wow, some differences. 

ECM &  GFS at t168

  

And at t240

  

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

By the way, the most significant part of that ECM op is nowhere near our part of the hemisphere

look at the day 10 NH plot - upstream

Yep, differences around Alaska are massive too. 

[Ali1977]

I wonder what's causing the PV to break up so quickly, eitger way it looks great for possiblilities later in December - the rise of heights into our location has also jumped forward a few days so it's good to have the ECM etc seeing these changes. Still need some luck and a bit more strength in the ridges to give us something good but with a weak OV that shouldn't be out of the question . 

[Seasonality]

And to think there has been moaning from some quarters about a 'raging vortex.' Looks like it has exploded with rage more like it. Nice arctic high too. Another change in the models and mid month is barely within the semi-reliable time frame. Looks like a colder December could still be on the cards.

 

Edited December 8, 2016 by Seasonality

[blizzard81]

47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The spread told us ther was a fair cluster much deeper up there (it's movement told us it was low height cluster)

 

Cheers BA but what about the changes much earlier than sat 17th dec?

[karlos1983]

GFS(P) 18z the PV decides to pay us a visit 

 

[Man With Beard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

GFS(P) 18z the PV decides to pay us a visit 

 

I'm wondering a little about the parallel. Last night it had a 930mb low a few hundred miles north of Scotland with Z500 geopotential so low it was off the scale!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS(P) 18z the PV decides to pay us a visit 

 

Thicknesses barely under 528 dam and uppers around -4/-5 doth not a polar vortex make. Looks mighty impressive on meteociel though on wetter I suspect it's not so 

the ops certainly trending to Fred's way of thinking 

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cheers BA but what about the changes much earlier than sat 17th dec?

Point taken re the system at day 7

worth looking at the spreads in half an hour to see if the op has any cluster support 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Point taken re the system at day 7

worth looking at the spreads in half an hour to see if the op has any cluster support 

Seems like we are moving away from the flat zonal/euro high nightmare blue, absolutely looking forward to GPs musings later...

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Seems like we are moving away from the flat zonal/euro high nightmare blue, absolutely looking forward to GPs musings later...

Indeed.

Hopefully encouraging news about increased height rises to the North or North West with decent amplification.

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Seems like we are moving away from the flat zonal/euro high nightmare blue, absolutely looking forward to GPs musings later...

What were his last thoughts?

[Frosty.]

9 hours ago, fergieweather said:

What does seem highly likely is a protracted period now unfolding of model volatility and marked swings between differing extremes, given the very fine balance now abundantly clear in extended range output. 

Judging by the latest models, it's happening as fergieweather said last night, marked swing compared to recently.

 

[nick sussex]

Who saw that coming. I hope the ECM is correct, good riddance to that Euro high.

I would be more dubious of this sudden change if it was post T168hrs but the changes start before that.

[karlos1983]

24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thicknesses barely under 528 dam and uppers around -4/-5 doth not a polar vortex make. Looks mighty impressive on meteociel though on wetter I suspect it's not so 

the ops certainly trending to Fred's way of thinking 

Ah ok! On first perusal with eye half a jar it looked way more dramatic.

cheers 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Who saw that coming. I hope the ECM is correct, good riddance to that Euro high.

I would be more dubious of this sudden change if it was post T168hrs but the changes start before that.

Just want to see the euro slug do one! Im with you nick i would prefer ecm but even gfs although more settled, offers hints of Atlantic retrogression.

Can we get some luck, for once..

[Stravaiger]

10 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi mate -

There is no way of telling - i dont have access to the ERA data, however the MERRA / NCAR renanalysis is almost the same ( as you would expect )

you can pull a reanalysis chart from 1948 however where do you decide the cut off point it -

I think more importantly for me is looking at the base state 500 plots are for generally average decs, then the anomaly months 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Steve, fascinating stuff...wouldn't mind a similar winter to 2009 though, ironically, that would mean a back-loaded rather than front-loaded one this year.

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out, esp. wrt stratospheric/troposheric (de)coupling this year.

Cheers!

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

In other words. The models don't really have a clue. 

Pattern change post my watch period (10th through 13th) I reckon. The models are struggling to get a grip on things as early as D4 and with all the differences noted intra-runs, may well be that Shannon has re-entered the room. I do feel, however, that, a colder than average period is upcoming for the second half of December. Your region and in particular Northwestern Scotland is likely to feel the brunt of it before hopefully extending south thereafter.

Edited December 8, 2016 by gottolovethisweather