Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

If this chart verifies.....

We could be in for an interesting run in to Christmas.  Yes I know it's the GFS and the ECM is having none of it but UKMO is supporting this evolution to some degree.

The law of the sod suggests ECM will be closer to the mark however.....

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the GFS ens we do seem to have more runs going for milder air than cold air longer term - it's fair to say the control has 'gone off on one' too

[Banbury]

We will always get a handle of forecasts out to 5 days but after that its guess work . Several days back I saw temps forecast for MBY on a particular day  for 6-7c it got no higher than 2.8c , quite a difference . I would like to see other forecasters from around the globe try predicting our weather .................it aint easy.

 

We clearly need so many things to come together to give us a decent winters spell . Low solar activity - Snow cover in October is talked about , QBO's , SSW 's and more , but in want order do they need to come together,  timing is the key ................ its easier to win the bloody lottery

Edited December 9, 2016 by Banbury

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at the GFS ens we do seem to have more runs going for milder air than cold air longer term - it's fair to say the control has 'gone off on one' too

Indeed Gav................Id like to see less of your mild posts  but unfortunately I don't think that will be the case

[bluearmy]

No sign on the eps tha the nwp is responding to any of the potential positives we read yesterday re teleconnective drivers on the other side of the globe as yet. 

If anything, the positive AO/NAO combo gaining traction with reasonable sceuro anomoly and strongish mid Atlantic low anomoly. Given that heights mid Atlantic would be expected to be on the low side, a marked low anomoly means an active period ahead. Suspect a nw/se split if the sceuro heights manage to keep se uk away from the worst. 

of course, this still doesn't quite sit with the GEFS view of the pattern which holds the Atlantic trough further west but now trending to higher euro height anomalies than yesterday. the model still manages to take the oscillations neg last few days of its run. 

very little for coldies to hang their hats on thus far today. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

25 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Indeed Gav................Id like to see less of your mild posts  but unfortunately I don't think that will be the case

I would like to bring coldies something colder but it's proving a real struggle at present...

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I would like to bring coldies something colder but it's proving a real struggle at present...

I wouldn't disagree

[Nick F]

42 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

steep If this chart verifies.....

We could be in for an interesting run in to Christmas.  Yes I know it's the GFS and the ECM is having none of it but UKMO is supporting this evolution to some degree.

The law of the sod suggests ECM will be closer to the mark however.....

... but unless there is a strong upper flow undercutting that ridge over Scandi ... that high is only ever going to sink south I'm afraid. Too much energy heading NE over the Atlantic due to the steep temp gradient over far north Atlantic beneath the deep cold over NE Canada and Greenland.

Really need to weaken or retrograde the deep cold pool upstream over Canada to have a fighting chance of keeping a ridge to our NE.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

 

[carinthian]

40 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

If this chart verifies.....

We could be in for an interesting run in to Christmas.  Yes I know it's the GFS and the ECM is having none of it but UKMO is supporting this evolution to some degree.

The law of the sod suggests ECM will be closer to the mark however.....

Yes , a glimmer of hope there. The latest extended N Atlantic charts from UKMO out to 168t, does show the deep Atlantic low starting to spin back NW and the pressure gradient towards Biscay has hallmarks towards some form of trough distruption on the advancing front  associated with the Atlantic Low. Still the flow is of a maritime nature for the North and West of the British, but the SE/E could start to see a colder continental feed as the wind flow backs. Not over yet.

C

[frosty ground]

49 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at the GFS ens we do seem to have more runs going for milder air than cold air longer term - it's fair to say the control has 'gone off on one' too

Definitely a milder set

[snow freak]

58 minutes ago, Banbury said:

We will always get a handle of forecasts out to 5 days but after that its guess work . Several days back I saw temps forecast for MBY on a particular day  for 6-7c it got no higher than 2.8c , quite a difference . I would like to see other forecasters from around the globe try predicting our weather .................it aint easy.

 

We clearly need so many things to come together to give us a decent winters spell . Low solar activity - Snow cover in October is talked about , QBO's , SSW 's and more , but in want order do they need to come together,  timing is the key ................ its easier to win the bloody lottery

I have more chance of winning the lottery than I have all of these synoptics to come together

[marksiwnc]

Hahaha watching the models is like a game of bingo when all array of options are on the table lmao.  I just hope that yesterday's mumblings regarding a possible MJO 7/8 for that sudden change in all outlooks....  anyway eyes down for your first numbers hahhahaha 

[Nick F]

Despite the progressive pattern painted by the majority EPS members as tweeted by Matt, 00z GEFS still going for a blocked signal, I count 15 out 20 members with anticyclonic synoptics over UK at day 10

Christmas Day now on GFS, and still half of the GEFS members look blocked to me on the 25th

F

Jury's still out for me on where we are headed toward Xmas given the ECMWF progressive vs GFS more blocked ... though can't see any deep cold coming anywhere near the UK unless some big pattern changes occur ... more likely a chance of a chilly continental feed with high pressure close to the east or NE.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Nick F

[Scandinavian High.]

It looking dry frosty  run up to Christmas maybe some slightly colder air coming in south east England.

[swfc]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Wasnt matts tweet yesterday calling a blocked dec/jan?????.Seems this has more flexibilty than a carp pole  atm,ah well

Edited December 9, 2016 by swfc

[Ravelin]

Not a lot of comment on the GFS 6z then. By t210 it's much flatter than the 0z..

0Z   6Z

Not looking much like a UK/Scandi high from that, maybe some cold zonality coming from NW?

[tight isobar]

Lol.

You just have to laugh really. 

A large swath' of Europe has the freezer door open on it. While we sit in the triangle of' nothingness! 

Its looking atm' like a stagnant situ with at best some minor inflow of continental air at times....

However still some resolve' perhaps of better synoptics' going forwards. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by tight isobar

[MattH]

18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Despite the progressive pattern painted by the majority EPS members as tweeted by Matt, 00z GEFS still going for a blocked signal, I count 15 out 20 members with anticyclonic synoptics over UK at day 10

Christmas Day now on GFS, and still half of the GEFS members look blocked to me on the 25th

F

Jury's still out for me on where we are headed toward Xmas given the ECMWF progressive vs GFS more blocked ... though can't see any deep cold coming anywhere near the UK unless some big pattern changes occur ... more likely a chance of a chilly continental feed with high pressure close to the east or NE.

That's a good way to sum things up really from Nick this morning...

The frustrating aspect, especially from a forecasting point of view, continues. It is quite unusual now to have such a prolonged disconnect and difference between the ensemble output of the GEFS and the EC ENS. The EC ENS, to me, is the form horse and I now believe, bar some sort of Christmas miracle, that the more progressive solution will come about. You can't discredit the persistence of the GEFS in terms of the blocking signal, especially given the 'flip flopping' that has been produced by the EC ENS. The overnight EC monthly was useless as it highlights -ve pressure anoms to the W of the UK, as per the EC ENS output, whilst blocking is in evidence to the east and north-east, but the UK then ends up within a no-mans-land of no anomalies at all, so a run where some meteorological insight comes in handy to gauge what it is showing and to me, the outcome is a predominantly S or SW'ly type, before a potential blocked regime by week 4. Whether the monthly can be trusted at the moment though is another question as it's only 2 weeks or so back that it was clearly going all out, guns blazing for a blocked regime, that to me now doesn't look likely.

In what is turning into a particularly strange month then the last week of the month may well be up for grabs, but speaking 'off the record', as such, then personally I would sooner see a more zonal pattern break through, at least within that you can potentially get colder W or NW'ly flows, especially given the deep cold that is loitering over E Canada for example. This steadfast scenario of blocking to the east, in some shape or form, just means the UK lies on the edge of a situation where it's either mild, wet and windy, or potentially more blocked drier and chilly, there's nothing really in-between and that, for now at least, really does mean that the chances of getting some 'true' cold air into the UK is very unlikely within the next week to two weeks. The other aspect to mention as well is that November was a below average CET month and more regionally temperatures were over 1C below average, what are the chances in the UK these days of getting 2 consecutive months where the CET ends up at or below average?...little chance!

As Tony and I titled the Winter Forecast, "A Winter of Wildcards", I will also copy and paste the below from the start of it as it really seems to heading this way...

"From the outset this has been an incredibly difficult forecast to work through, with multiple variables this season that are outside expected parameters. In essence, it is a winter where wildcards are in abundance."

Have a good weekend,

Matt.

[Nick F]

29 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Jury's still out for me on where we are headed toward Xmas given the ECMWF progressive vs GFS more blocked ... though can't see any deep cold coming anywhere near the UK unless some big pattern changes occur ... more likely a chance of a chilly continental feed with high pressure close to the east or NE.

06z GFS says NO to blocking ... picking up the EC trend our just a rogue progressive run out of the other members?

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Conorm said:

The bloke is clueless, his winter LRF is already in the bin.

What an acutely silly post!

[Nick L]

Several posts removed. If it's not model related or simply knocking other members, it will be deleted, simple as that.

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

personally I would sooner see a more zonal pattern break through, at least within that you can potentially get colder W or NW'ly flows, especially given the deep cold that is loitering over E Canada for example.

A bit like the GFS 6Z...

  

One run, FI, grasping at straws etc.

 

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

A bit like the GFS 6Z...

The problem with zonal being that more often than not, it doesn't deliver something cold. I said more often than not, before people show me synoptics where it dumped shed loads of snow from 20 years ago ;-)

 Still, beggars can't be choosers.

[karlos1983]

We really need to get rid of these euro heights, but we all know how stubborn they can be. Until they disappear we can forget any idea of deep sustained cold reaching our shores i fear

I'm glad I don't have a December Skiing Holiday booked in the Alps, must be quite bare!

Edited December 9, 2016 by karlos1983