Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[phil nw.]

After being fairly evenly split by day 8 ie 17/12 which is the date i have been counting down to- the gefs have gone more westerly by day 10. with only around 5 members showing any promise of blocking off the Atlantic and developing a colder east/south easterly flow.

Day 8                                                               Day 10

  

There is a large spread to our west and across the north but i think it's looking less likely that any UK blocking will hold far enough north for much interest.It wont be mild but C.England mean surface pressure is a little lower and the daytime max's 5/6C a tad higher on this set.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The mean still indicates high pressure through to the 25th

still 06Z though isn't it? was going to post these but for 12Z, hoping ECM will trend towards GEFS

[chris55]

22 minutes ago, swfc said:

wow.after viewing the ukmo and 12z im pretty certain theres a drug induiced cult thing going on!!! theres nothing what looks anything like bringing any cold 850s or any serious blocking anywhere near the uk.enso outlook is up in the air and the pv is ramped up? 

No drugs needed lol

Have a look at UKMO 144.

An Atlantic trough tilting negatively against the block, medium and high latitude blocking , good waa advection in the making. Nothing firm or awe inspiring but a decent Op chart way out at 144.

   

[Scandinavian High.]

Door shut on a westerly flow .

[booferking]

Main models at 96hr.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Main models at 96hr.

Getting there but still differences, which at that timescale is ridiculous 

Edited December 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

Xmas day treat lol

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still 06Z though isn't it? was going to post these but for 12Z, hoping ECM will trend towards GEFS

Oops saw the ones on TWO updated and forgot to check the time on here

Anyway...

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ecm at t96 looks like it wants to stretch an arm of higher pressure northwest of the uk. Slight variations here and making much more of the short wave to our east. . Could that low pressure to our West slip energy under ? If it does then we can have a sandwich of high pressure to our north and get that shortwave to our east moving south then it's game on 

[damianslaw]

Not looked the charts for a few days. I'm just going to stick to the reliable timeframe i.e 144 hrs and they all agree on some form of weak height development to our NE at that range, fending off the atlantic and temps climbing back down to more near average values. All very average mid December stuff really.. not making for anything particularly interesting or unusual model wise.

Key question is whether these heights will stay robust against a resurgent jetstream aligned to the very steep temp gradient forecast to set up over north atlantic thanks to the very cold air spilling out of NE USA. Odds are normally stacked against the block holding out.. though with a ridge being progged behind the cold air, a ridge could very quickly set up shop near our doors shortly after the cold air has funnelled into the north atlantic.

A topsy-turvy outlook, best just stick to the reliable timeframe I say.

[bluearmy]

Gfs 12z AO/NAO heading towards +6 and +4  by day 10 !!!

also the gefs AO now remains positive throughout - expect this is the step towards it seeing whatever the eps have been for a few suites 

[Stuie]

You have to hand it to the ECM, it`s trying it`s best to give us the cold air. 

[Seasonality]

Oh ECM you tease... What comes next?

[booferking]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Oh ECM you tease... What comes next?

Atlantic i would guess it not going to happen this side of christmas.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Oh ECM you tease... What comes next?

This!

[Summer Sun]

10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Oh ECM you tease... What comes next?

 

 

South westerlies and mild air

Edited December 9, 2016 by Summer Sun

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This!

 Bartlett-dominated scenario lower the heights in Europe get rid of the high are we will be stuck here for a very long time.

And it gets better bbq anybody 3 week of dec.

Edited December 9, 2016 by booferking

[Summer Sun]

Uncle Barty making a return

[johncam]

it has been a worst start to the Scottish ski season this year than it was last year and that is saying something!!!, couldnt get much worse charts

[NeilN]

Let's hope these are outliers and it doesn't happen. Failing that, we've got to accept our climate in the UK is changing and learn to adapt to it (or fire a rocket at the warm air)

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Uncle Barty making a return

Oh dear.  If this day 9 chart verified and it's a big if, the Met Office's forecast for a cold December will be shot in flames.  At the moment, it's looking like a very mild December is on the cards. Springlike (mild and sunny) 15C in London today.

Edited December 9, 2016 by mulzy

[Lampostwatcher]

A great christmas present from the ecm 

What most of us have wanted this christmas a bbq !

 

[Summer Sun]

2 days from the shortest day and we have 850's of +9

[Carl46Wrexham]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Not good at all for cold just about as bad as it gets

Now the PV looks like it's suddenly going to wake up it could be some time until things improve

Today

Wednesday

Christmas day

Please...I've not long eaten!

[Paul_1978]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

2 days from the shortest day and we have 850's of +9

You'll be chuffed to bits with that