Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[LRD]

Evening all

First post. Been a long time lurker.

I wish my 1st post was able to talk about positives! The models look shocking and after all the expectation, the last few days, as realisation has started to sink in that cold was becoming an ever-distant prospect, have been a real disappointment to folk like me who like cold in winter. Got to say that I don't ever recall a winter where the longer term models have been proved so wrong (so far).

Don't think we should be giving up on longer term models though. GLOSEA has performed well in the past. Some have been calling to stop bothering with longer term models but that's defeatist. Got to keep learning and improving understanding. That's what science is about

 

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by LRD
Typos - not a great start!

[nick sussex]

Welcome LRD to the NetWeather madhouse! Yes its hard going at the moment with the models reluctant to deliver anything of interest in terms of cold and snow.

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! I admire your optimism. The issue Blizzard is that at the crucial timeframes we don't get enough energy se and trough disruption. I'll see what NCEP make of the USA pattern and whether theres any hope of a bit more amplitude upstream.

With the ridging to the north east being 5 days away, we still have time for this ridge to be stronger come the time. I'm sure I am not the only one (although I do feel like I am tonight lol) that thought the ecm 168hr chart held much promise. That powerful low to our west at 144hr didn't know what had hit it when faced with the power of the block to our east, hence the 168hr chart which I actually find very promising. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by blizzard81

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, LRD said:

Evening all

First post. Been a long time lurker.

I wish my 1st post was able to talk about positives! The models look shocking and after all the expectation, the last few days, as realisation has started to sink in that cold was becoming an ever-distant prospect, have been a real disappointment to folk like me who like cold in winter. Got to say that I don't ever recall a winter where the longer term models have been proved so wrong (so far).

Don't think we should be giving up on longer term models though. GLOSEA has performed well in the past. Some have been calling to stop bothering with longer term models but that's defeatist. Got to keep learning and improving understanding. That's what science is about

 

 

Welcome aboard

I think one thing is for sure , you can have all the big super computers you want but they still get tripped up.................they are for guidance only

[Sweatyman]

27 minutes ago, mulzy said:

When do we wheel out some CFS charts?  It's getting close to that point I would say...

Cptec bom model usually delivers ha ha

[LRD]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Welcome LRD to the NetWeather madhouse! Yes its hard going at the moment with the models reluctant to deliver anything of interest in terms of cold and snow.

Thanks Nick

As a lurker I've been through purgatory model-watching in winters gone by - 2015/16 being right up there of course. Just when you think we are getting a handle on longer term predictions then the models spring a surprise

This is a great forum though with loads of superb contributors. Will leave it there as I'm barely on topic!

[Spah1]

There's hope! 

[Dennis]

well whats that on the south of europe?

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

With the ridging to the north east being 5 days away, we still have time for this ridge to be stronger come the time. I'm sure I am not the only one (although I do feel like I am tonight lol) that thought the ecm 168hr chart held much promise. That powerful low to our west at 144hr didn't know what had hit it when faced with the power of the block to our east, hence the 168hr chart which I actually find very promising.

The problem is the location of the main PV, its hard to develop much amplitude. The opportunity to get the Scandi high further north is really only between T96 and T144hrs because after that the upstream pattern becomes even less favourable. We'll see over the next few runs but its going to need some big changes within that earlier timeframe.

[Richard Taylor]

They said there'll be snow at Christmas, they said there'll be peace on earth. But instead it just kept on raining - a veil of tears for the virgin birth.

Yes, I think Greg (RIP) summed it up succinctly. Just minus - so far - the rain!

Cannot see anything in the models to give us encouragement if it's snowy cold you're after - whether from the East or, like me, from the North.

Only 'hope' I can see is a sudden turnaround, which I suppose is always possible. I'm pretty sure there was one year where there was a White Christmas that was not forecast & only became forecast a couple of days prior to the big day, maybe sooner than that - I recall not being aware of it until the Eve when the MetO suddenly flagged it up on the TV (but I cannot recall which year, pretty sure it was a 21st C year!)  

  

 

[blizzard81]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The problem is the location of the main PV, its hard to develop much amplitude. The opportunity to get the Scandi high further north is really only between T96 and T144hrs because after that the upstream pattern becomes even less favourable. We'll see over the next few runs but its going to need some big changes within that earlier timeframe.

The T96 - T144 timeframe was what I was referring to. I know it doesn't give us much time but it is a well know fact that the models struggle with sudden height rises over scandi. The clear trend today has been to increase the strength of these heights more and more over consecutive runs. If this trend continues over the next 24hrs, well, you see where I am going

Edited December 9, 2016 by blizzard81

[stewfox]

51 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

A serious post here - This could be the models drunk, and bare in mind computers can get it wrong or we're just going to have face the truth. Our climate is changing, and not for the better. 

First 'models drunk' post of the winter .  However  I don't think the models are drunk at present

Trouble is although the GFS,UKMO, ECM etc have all meandered , they have all shown reasonable consistency in the last few days out to la la land (T240)

We want the GFS to get p**** over the next few runs and get us  to say wtf  BOOM BOOM with the usual  'of course it wont verify' .  I would give anything for a 'of course it wont verify'

Edited December 9, 2016 by stewfox

[Stuie]

20 minutes ago, Dennis said:

well whats that on the south of europe?

Very light winds.

[carinthian]

Extended UKMO t168 continues to show a fall in pressure to the SW of the British Isles, even forms a cyclonic circulation. Must back the flow over England and Wales. How certain at this range , not sure, but good to see.

 C

[Dennis]

Just now, Stuie W said:

Very light winds.

Thnx thats good for High Pressure

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

Thnx thats good for High Pressure

When I say light winds, in terms of the jet stream.

[fromey]

I don't if this has any bearing on what we are seeing or likely to see so I'm just throwing it out there for discussion, please don't shoot me!

i know it's for the other side of the pond!

[cornish snow]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

My brief and to the point run down of the models for cold !

GFS  Terrible

GEM Terrible

UKMO Slight interest at T144hrs, better upstream pattern at that stage.

ECM Terrible but slightly less terrible at T240hrs than the GFS

JMA Has some interest , the best of the nights outputs upto T192hrs however we only wheel it out in desperate times and seeing as we hit Code Red with the GFS/ECM it had to make an appearance!

NAVGEM Mediocre but trending terrible at T180hrs.

 

Overall there are differences upstream with shortwaves running across the USA and moving into the Atlantic, in terms of speed and amplitude and these impact the prospects of getting some energy to head se under the high to the east. At this point unless theres much more sharpness to  troughing to the west then its hard to see an escape from the ECM/GFS horror show.

 

 

Isn't it about that time of year you start giving the models marks out of 10 each night?

 

[Dennis]

gfs para

[Walsall Wood Snow]

25 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

They said there'll be snow at Christmas, they said there'll be peace on earth. But instead it just kept on raining - a veil of tears for the virgin birth.

Yes, I think Greg (RIP) summed it up succinctly. Just minus - so far - the rain!

Cannot see anything in the models to give us encouragement if it's snowy cold you're after - whether from the East or, like me, from the North.

Only 'hope' I can see is a sudden turnaround, which I suppose is always possible. I'm pretty sure there was one year where there was a White Christmas that was not forecast & only became forecast a couple of days prior to the big day, maybe sooner than that - I recall not being aware of it until the Eve when the MetO suddenly flagged it up on the TV (but I cannot recall which year, pretty sure it was a 21st C year!)  

  

 

That was in 2004. 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

Isn't it about that time of year you start giving the models marks out of 10 each night?

 

Lol! I think members have suffered enough. Just how many zero's out of ten could they cope with. I've decided to only bring back my scoring system when theres a chance a major model could get above 5.

[blizzard81]

The ecm 10 day ensembles for debilt seems to show a cluster of easterlies at days 8 to 10

[cornish snow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! I think members have suffered enough. Just how many zero's out of ten could they cope with. I've decided to only bring back my scoring system when theres a chance a major model could get above 5.

In for the long haul then

[MP-R]

30 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

They said there'll be snow at Christmas, they said there'll be peace on earth. But instead it just kept on raining - a veil of tears for the virgin birth.

Yes, I think Greg (RIP) summed it up succinctly. Just minus - so far - the rain!

Cannot see anything in the models to give us encouragement if it's snowy cold you're after - whether from the East or, like me, from the North.

Only 'hope' I can see is a sudden turnaround, which I suppose is always possible. I'm pretty sure there was one year where there was a White Christmas that was not forecast & only became forecast a couple of days prior to the big day, maybe sooner than that - I recall not being aware of it until the Eve when the MetO suddenly flagged it up on the TV (but I cannot recall which year, pretty sure it was a 21st C year!)  

  

 

Yes 2004 was such an instance. The quiet first half of the month was replaced by a more active Atlantic in the second half, but brought a lot of Pm air with it resulting in a snowy slider here on the 19th and snow showers on the 25th. One such example of waiting for the Atlantic to wake up again for the snow to arrive.

No such luck in current model runs which, bar a few, have had those devilish heights to the south getting in the way. We'd ideally need low pressure to our northeast with disrupting troughs in the flow to bring in some colder uppers. Personally though, I think I'd rather dry and cold than risk a Pm incursion and just get wet (rain). As ever, more runs needed.

[blizzard81]

22 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Extended UKMO t168 continues to show a fall in pressure to the SW of the British Isles, even forms a cyclonic circulation. Must back the flow over England and Wales. How certain at this range , not sure, but good to see.

 C

Many thanks for posting this Carinthian. This is what I have been trying to stress as a real contender in about 7 to 8 days time from now. The trend today has been to strengthen those heights over scandi. I have also noticed over the years how good the ukmo is at forecasting scandi highs