Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Dean E]

ECM 12z

GFS 18z

Euro has stronger Atlantic Low and less of a Scandi influence on the UK, GFS Starting to strengthen the Scandi block. Progress yes, however, leaves us in a no mans land.

SE Europe back in the Freezer it seems

 

SM

[Seasonality]

The beast awakens and prowls west! 

[igloo]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Talk about beast from the east from the 18z. Look at the cold pool! Proper cold for central and eastern Europe if it verifies.

if we could get a few more tweaks further west from this beast at 1050mb we could well see some very cold temps but i have seen this many times over the past 4-5 years it never gets far enough west to have any inpact unfortunately not like the old times 

[nick sussex]

As I mentioned on the previous page its that T96 to T120hrs timeframe which is crucial. Because its at that point you have that phasing and then the energy shoots off ne over the high, with just a bit more going se the high would end up further north and west.

When trying to force energy under a block though you do want this type of high orientation running more ne/sw, you want the high facing the enemy in the Atlantic.

 

 

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, igloo said:

if we could get a few more tweaks further west from this beast at 1050mb we could well see some very cold temps but i have seen this many times over the past 4-5 years it never gets far enough west to have any inpact unfortunately not like the old times 

Difference this year compared to the last few winters is a very meandering a slow Jet stream, worth an eye being kept on that.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Talk about beast from the east from the 18z. Look at the cold pool! Proper cold for central and eastern Europe if it verifies.

Train from the E is coming our way....

 

[Snowy L]

It's happening again. We get everything we need for a block except 1 thing and it ruins everything. The scandi high is there, holding off the Atlantic yet the entire Mediterranean is devoid of any pressure gradient so the only way that Scandi high will go is South. So frustrating. We've seen some brilliant synoptics through November and December go to absolute waste.

Edit: You can see it here. From Syria to the Atlantic with zero pressure difference throughout.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by Snowy L

[snowray]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm 10 day ensembles for debilt seems to show a cluster of easterlies at days 8 to 10

yes here it comes on the GFS 18z....

[ITSY]

Well that puts the proverbial cat amongst the pegions. Let's see where it lies in the set. 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

 Very few ice days (3 or 4) showing over there. An easterly flow in december would deliver ice days in holland, especially further south east. 

The new eps keeps the Atlantic trough that bit further west compared to the 00z run and sinks the low anomoly to our west a tad more taking the jet a little further south. Sceuro ridge little more defined. The GEFS and eps perhaps beginning to come together?? 

3 or 4. We have to start somewhere. From small acorns and all that. 18z another upgrade in the very short term

[Derecho]

 - Quite a strong high to our east there starting to influence things over the UK a bit.

Although we have deep purples and blues to our Northwest, if we can get that Euro high a bit further north we can perhaps hold off the Atlantic onslaught for a while and catch a bit of that air mass over Europe.

 - interesting chart

interesting because we may get an undercut if additional energy is picked up closer to the time which may get some of the colder air in Eastern Europe.

Clutching at the thinnest of straws here as the North Atlantic looks powerful, but such a scenario isn't impossible in my opinion.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Quicksilver1989

[gottolovethisweather]

15 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Train from the E is coming our way....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indeed Daniel, the pub run appears to need rebranding as the gottolovetheweather model. Perhaps we'll rename it the GTLTW, in the hope that it sticks with the Scandi High over subsequent runs.  Baby steps tonight yes, but most important ones at that.

As per my post up thread,

"Again the D5 range chart wasn't too far off the mark, although the regions highlighted in red have shifted, the Pacific Heights cover a larger area than expected and again are aligned further Westwards towards Canada and the USA. Sadly for coldies, the heights are stronger than forecast towards our South and across towards the Azores. However, the behaviour of Canadian vortex (trough?) incoming from the North Atlantic could yet force ever stronger heights ahead of it towards our North. This is where my prediction of more solid heights towards our NNE and NE (Scandinavia region) comes in and if we look at the D8 chart for the 13th December I threw in for a laugh on Monday's post; we can see how the ECM handled that aspect at the time."

Edited December 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Changing Skies said:

Train from the E is coming our way....

 

The last train to trancentral! Looks like GP may have been right about a sudden switch.

[Daniel*]

-6c uppers into the SE!! Not the so called 'faux' cold.  

[daz_4]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

The beast awakens and prowls west! 

Knife edge stuff. I guess OP will be on the coldest side. Arctic days here if this verifies.

[Seasonality]

Frozen Europe. Bank!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Snow into the W by 216 hrs

[booferking]

Hold on guys it even gives yea some of the white stuff.

[johncam]

And here comes the sw express 

[phil nw.]

Just out of interest at this range but this run shows what could be achieved by just a light surface flow off a very cold Europe.By the end of next week we would see some parts of the UK around freezing in the day time.

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by phil nw.

[radiohead]

The jet is just too strong, but the potential is there with a few adjustments.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Snow into the W by 216 hrs

 

 

 

Crewe would be cold for once and perhaps snowbound.  

Edited December 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, SnowMania said:

ECM 12z

GFS 18z

Euro has stronger Atlantic Low and less of a Scandi influence on the UK, GFS Starting to strengthen the Scandi block. Progress yes, however, leaves us in a no mans land.

SE Europe back in the Freezer it seems

 

SM

Now that ... is what I call potential. 

Anyone who's been on here a long time knows that one you get heights into Scandi, strange things can happen on the models even at D5/6. Energy can split south far more than expected at far out time scales. 

Of course often it doesn't work out for cold ... but I'm on official beast from the east watch for the next 24 hours 

[Singularity]

The 12z ECM didn't ramp up the vortex despite the lack of tropical forcing, and now we have the block looking more expansive mid-late next week.

We've taken uncanny steps toward the Feb 1991 run-up. If only that truly meant something in terms of the likely outcome in Dec 2016!

18z has loosely moved toward the 12z ARPEGE so perhaps that model was seeing an important detail after all?

[snowray]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

 Very few ice days (3 or 4) showing over there. An easterly flow in december would deliver ice days in holland, especially further south east. 

The new eps keeps the Atlantic trough that bit further west compared to the 00z run and sinks the low anomoly to our west a tad more taking the jet a little further south. Sceuro ridge little more defined. The GEFS and eps perhaps beginning to come together?? 

I had ice days here in late Nov 2010 on that Easterly, was mad! So I am sure we would get icw days in December on this sort of set up if it upgrades just slightly mmmm