Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[bluearmy]

To follow on from Ian's post, the eps graphs are more visibly impressive on temps and slack wind flow than the Dutch ones appeared to be. odd really, considering they are representative of the same data.

note also that Rome and Madrid are not predicted to stay dry through week 2

maybe tomorrow morning will have a few more early viewers than seemed likely earlier 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No. I'm clearly not stating that. Stop being silly.

How am I being silly, I'm simply stating that I doubt any Easterly that has verified in the past (worth mentioning) will have had some (NOT NESSESARILY LOTS) support at 300 hours out.

[Scandinavian High.]

Anything is possible that's  upgrade to me better then  last run more upgrades please.

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Whoah.....hang about. That can't be allowed to pass unchallenged.

Do you *really* think Prof Adam Scaife - and the Hadley Centre scientists - sit in their monthly Seasonal Team meeting at Exeter and stare singularly and unscientifically at UKMO output and then dismiss everything else out of some sort of 'confirmation bias'?? 

The Contingency Planning 3-month document (which, stress, is a *probabilistic*, not *deterministic* outlook) is based on the consensus reached at those monthly meetings and written-up shortly afterwards. At those forums, the collective output across a number of respected seasonal modelling centres is viewed comparatively with weighting applied; and detailed areas of global forcings/teleconnections discussed. This includes output made available to UKMO from ECMWF, MeteoFrance, NCEP, plus Japan/Korea/S Africa and many others. Indeed you will often see reference made in those documents to where agreement exists between GloSea5 and "other seasonal forecast agencies/models". This isn't some cursory exercise of pulling bits of CFS off the web and comparing to UKMO products: it's a rigorous piece of scientific scrutiny with a duly critical approach applied.

The fact remains that as of mid Nov, excellent agreement on broadscale pattern existed between GloSea, ECMWF Seasonal and MeteoFrance-Climate. Not dissimilar output appeared in other (less highly weighted) models such as CFS.

Note that at NO point did UKMO probabilistic forecasts lean to 'very cold' categorisation: merely a higher than average chance of colder than average. Anxious that certain media types would blow it all beyond proportion to ape 2010-11, Adam blogged in detail on the UKMO website to offer context to the last two 3-monthly outlooks that were issued.

To suggest Adam and his team "took eye off ball" out of some deference to an in-house model firstly ignores the cross-model support available to them at the time. Secondly, it's actually quite insulting for a guy who has published or co-authored so many peer-reviewed papers in the field of seasonal to decadal forecasting; SSW's; etc etc. Whatever has gone pear-shaped so far in Dec, I'd wager Adam could explain unhesitatingly. 

And by the way: with cluster 1 of today's 12z ECMWF heading into building strong +ve GPH anomalies and rising MSLP above Scandinavia with a resultant easterly flow just before Christmas, it's also too early anyway to utterly dismiss what Glosea leaned to originally.

Thanks @fergieweather. I agree completely. This kind of mindless criticism of meteorological science is far too often accepted as fact here. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by Seasonality

[chris pawsey]

Dear all, 

Rarely post in this thread in fear of being shot down as I'm a pure amateur. But a very long time lurker.

Today's models have thrown us allsorts... and not the liquorice variety. Earlier alot of members posting "the hunt for cold... it's over for dec" and I believed them due to the fired up jet that is predicted due to the cold flooding into the US. But then the GFS then throws... a potential cold shot from the east. 

I really hope this is the case but learning from the past we need to see trends, future runs to back up this one run, alot can change in the space of a short space of time.

There is alot of "winter" remaining, patients is a virtue and eventually we will get what all us coldies want.

Keep up all the good work to all the seasoned and we'll established posters, you know who you are,your educational knowledge is very much appreciated and digested. Many thanks

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

 

...And by the way: with cluster 1 of today's 12z ECMWF heading into building strong +ve GPH anomalies and rising MSLP above Scandinavia with a resultant easterly flow just before Christmas, it's also too early anyway to utterly dismiss what Glosea leaned to originally.

Oh no, just as we were beginning to quietly accept our fate, first we get the pub run and now this little snippet.

Well thanks to whoever it was that clambered into the wicker man. Very Christmasy of you - oh wait, not Christmasy, no, but thanks!

[bluearmy]

Member 18

nite

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

Dear all, 

Rarely post in this thread in fear of being shot down as I'm a pure amateur. But a very long time lurker.

Today's models have thrown us allsorts... and not the liquorice variety. Earlier alot of members posting "the hunt for cold... it's over for dec" and I believed them due to the fired up jet that is predicted due to the cold flooding into the US. But then the GFS then throws... a potential cold shot from the east. 

I really hope this is the case but learning from the past we need to see trends, future runs to back up this one run, alot can change in the space of a short space of time.

There is alot of "winter" remaining, patients is a virtue and eventually we will get what all us coldies want.

Keep up all the good work to all the seasoned and we'll established posters, you know who you are,your educational knowledge is very much appreciated and digested. Many thanks

Chris, majority are amateurs I here, in fact weather enthusiasts. Don't fear to post, and it's the best way to learn if your up for constructive criticism, and thick skinned enough to ignore the rude comments.

welcome

*however if you criticise unfairly accept you may get schooled by an expert 

bobbydog there are no words, your comment/caption made me fall off the sofa lol

Edited December 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Seasonality]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

How am I being silly, I'm simply stating that I doubt any Easterly that has verified in the past (worth mentioning) will have had some (NOT NESSESARILY LOTS) support at 300 hours out.

 *Necessarily 

And you didn't read what I said obviously. But I'll leave it there. Feel free to revert to your usual posts about mild weather being nailed on. 

[booferking]

A marked swing to block theme GEFS.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Member 18

nite

Outlier. 

nite nite. 

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

Dear all, 

Rarely post in this thread in fear of being shot down as I'm a pure amateur. But a very long time lurker.

Today's models have thrown us allsorts... and not the liquorice variety. Earlier alot of members posting "the hunt for cold... it's over for dec" and I believed them due to the fired up jet that is predicted due to the cold flooding into the US. But then the GFS then throws... a potential cold shot from the east. 

I really hope this is the case but learning from the past we need to see trends, future runs to back up this one run, alot can change in the space of a short space of time.

There is alot of "winter" remaining, patients is a virtue and eventually we will get what all us coldies want.

Keep up all the good work to all the seasoned and we'll established posters, you know who you are,your educational knowledge is very much appreciated and digested. Many thanks

I'll back up Karlos here, we're almost all amateurs just having a go (and that's at weather forecasting, not at the UKMO ) anyone shooting someone down for a well intentioned and respectful post should be ignored IMO. One day you'll spot the trend when no-one else, not even the professionals do. And that makes your contribution worth it

What do you think - easterly or no easterly? I'm at about 25% tonight, up from about 10% yesterday.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'll back up Karlos here, we're almost all amateurs just having a go (and that's at weather forecasting, not at the UKMO ) anyone shooting someone down for a well intentioned and respectful post should be ignored IMO. One day you'll spot the trend when no-one else, not even the professionals do. And that makes your contribution worth it

What do you think - easterly or no easterly? I'm at about 25% tonight, up from about 10% yesterday.

35% because I'm an eternal optimist 

something akin to my avatar would do just nicely  

Edited December 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

35% because I'm an eternal optimist 

Actually the ens have a few with the same potential too. It's not a big shift really, just ever so slightly back on the Atlantic gas. 

P18 really is something else, though

[fergieweather]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Oh no, just as we were beginning to quietly accept our fate, first we get the pub run and now this little snippet.

Well thanks to whoever it was that clambered into the wicker man. Very Christmasy of you - oh wait, not Christmasy, no, but thanks!

Can't reproduce entire meteograms from EC but here are ENS windroses for Reading, 22-23 Dec. Note (in major contrast to previous run) how whilst a SW flow quadrant (as per majority model climatology for that period) remains still the stronger signal by 23 Dec, we now have the 2nd largest - albeit oh-so-slightly - as an E'ly. Whether a wild goose chase (given recent ensemble roller coaster) or an incipient turning-point is now unfolding, we shall see. Jury out.

[chris pawsey]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

35% because I'm an eternal optimist 

I will await a trend... then comment. Quite happily sit on the fence and get splinters in my @ss .

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Can't reproduce entire meteograms from EC but here are ENS windroses for Reading, 22-23 Dec. Note (in major contrast to previous run) how whilst a SW flow quadrant (as per majority model climatology for that period) remains still the stronger signal by 23 Dec, we now have the 2nd largest - albeit oh-so-slightly - as an E'ly. Whether a wild goose chase (given recent ensemble roller coaster) or an incipient turning-point is now unfolding, we shall see. Jury out.

That screams battleground! Not necessarily snowy but battleground nonetheless? With majority being sw'rly or E'rly then that's surely a fair assumption. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[damianslaw]

51 minutes ago, SnowMania said:

One of the strongest jets of the season as well! GFS going into standard Atlantic default I think!

The overall base state is a weakened jet for the foreseeable, the resurgence forecast next week probably a very temporary feature and caused by the cold air spilling out of Canada, longer term forecast is for significant ridge development over much of central/east USA cutting off the cold air supply - very quickly - snap!

[supernova]

20 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Whoah.....hang about. That can't be allowed to pass unchallenged.

Do you *really* think Prof Adam Scaife - and the Hadley Centre scientists - sit in their monthly Seasonal Team meeting at Exeter and stare singularly and unscientifically at UKMO output and then dismiss everything else out of some sort of 'confirmation bias'?? 

The Contingency Planning 3-month document (which, stress, is a *probabilistic*, not *deterministic* outlook) is based on the consensus reached at those monthly meetings and written-up shortly afterwards. At those forums, the collective output across a number of respected seasonal modelling centres is viewed comparatively with weighting applied; and detailed areas of global forcings/teleconnections discussed. This includes output made available to UKMO from ECMWF, MeteoFrance, NCEP, plus Japan/Korea/S Africa and many others. Indeed you will often see reference made in those documents to where agreement exists between GloSea5 and "other seasonal forecast agencies/models". This isn't some cursory exercise of pulling bits of CFS off the web and comparing to UKMO products: it's a rigorous piece of scientific scrutiny with a duly critical approach applied.

The fact remains that as of mid Nov, excellent agreement on broadscale pattern existed between GloSea, ECMWF Seasonal and MeteoFrance-Climate. Not dissimilar output appeared in other (less highly weighted) models such as CFS.

Note that at NO point did UKMO probabilistic forecasts lean to 'very cold' categorisation: merely a higher than average chance of colder than average. Anxious that certain media types would blow it all beyond proportion to ape 2010-11, Adam blogged in detail on the UKMO website to offer context to the last two 3-monthly outlooks that were issued.

To suggest Adam and his team "took eye off ball" out of some deference to an in-house model firstly ignores the cross-model support available to them at the time. Secondly, it's actually quite insulting for a guy who has published or co-authored so many peer-reviewed papers in the field of seasonal to decadal forecasting; SSW's; etc etc. Whatever has gone pear-shaped so far in Dec, I'd wager Adam could explain unhesitatingly. 

And by the way: with cluster 1 of today's 12z ECMWF heading into building strong +ve GPH anomalies and rising MSLP above Scandinavia with a resultant easterly flow just before Christmas, it's also too early anyway to utterly dismiss what Glosea leaned to originally.

Just don't get this persistent need to bash the MetO. As gottalovethisweather's excellent post (couple of pages earlier) shows, and we see time and time again, FI got it's nickname for very good reason and anything much past days 4/5 is incredibly difficult to forecast accurately. This forum would be a starker place without Fergieweather's input and I'm amazed he remains so steadfastly generous in sharing an inside line when so often people on here (thankfully a minority) are too quick to criticise.

[blizzard81]

40 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nonsense statement. All kinds of options can pop up and verify from 300h due to the spread at that range. Not just easterlies.

Totally agree  

 

[Chris.R]

lol battleground... Oh no not again...  said the bowl of petunias  

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Can't reproduce entire meteograms from EC but here are ENS windroses for Reading, 22-23 Dec. Note (in major contrast to previous run) how whilst a SW flow quadrant (as per majority model climatology for that period) remains still the stronger signal by 23 Dec, we now have the 2nd largest - albeit oh-so-slightly - as an E'ly. Whether a wild goose chase (given recent ensemble roller coaster) or an incipient turning-point is now unfolding, we shall see. Jury out.

Hmmm ... High Pressure over us or slightly to our east, slightly more likely to be south-easterly based (milder) but possibly also north-easterly based?

Actually, sounds ever so slightly like the conundrum posed by the OP runs tonight in the D7-D10 range?

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

lol battleground... Oh no not again...  said the bowl of petunias  

Eh...? I don't follow. Not like we've seen any recently 

Edited December 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[snowray]

22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That screams battleground! Not necessarily snowy but battleground nonetheless? With majority being sw'rly or E'rly then that's surely a fair assumption 

Yes looks like battlegound scenario there...always a lot of fun and lucky for some. But a bit of an Easterly could be in the air tonight, could we get our once every 3 year upgrades, coldies certainly due a break as we enter the season to be merry,,,

Edited December 9, 2016 by snowray

[feb1991blizzard]

Still only 1 GEFS member going significantly below -5c 850hpa, all a storm in a teacup and SWerly will be the predominant theme again by tomorrow.