Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Man With Beard]

Not quite the easterly of the 18Z but the general evolution still showing on all models - disruption against heights to the east - net result Atlantic does not push through the pattern as it was doing on some runs a day or two ago and the mild flow is cut off after D6/D8 (depending on model) for at least a few days - with the chance of something much colder if things work out. 

Look at the last three frames of the ECM - the Atlantic has gone!

Edited December 10, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Seasonality]

Still a cold run for central Europe. Hopefully for uk's sake that cold cluster is leading the way and the festive fun spreads west.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Seasonality

[knocker]

Without going into detail the ecm is not dissimilar to the GFS

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Still a cold run for central Europe. Hopefully for uk's sake that cold cluster is leading the way and the festive fun spreads east.

hope you mean west?

[daz_4]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Still a cold run for central Europe. Hopefully for uk's sake that cold cluster is leading the way and the festive fun spreads east.

Unfortunately, the support from GEFS ENS for easterly is slowly dissapearing. OP and control one of the coldest but even they can't push the cold air west. I'm afraid ECM will be correct again and we will be left with inversion at best even here in central Europe with cold air heading to SE.

[Seasonality]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope you mean west?

Yes! Typo 

[IDO]

December so far has had a CET of +0.7c and down in the south it has felt milder than that. Looking at the GEFS ens we have above average uppers forecast for the next 16 days and the mean is positive throughout:

I see a CET of maybe +2c above average for December? 

There remains no sign of change compared to this time last week. We are caught in a rut of groundhog day with no forcing to change the pattern. So UK wise we have uppers that will not bring cold by themselves and have to rely on faux cold from inversions; which is fine for some but not everybody's cup of tea? 

I am sure there will be the small cluster offering vague promises of more northern blocking in FI, the story since November, but in reality that's all they have been, false dawns.

So we are in the changeable week or so as we wait the next pulse of heights from the Azores, around D7. All models are on board and nothing between now and then looks remotely likely to change this upcoming pattern: 

I see little hope of any building of heights within the next 7 days, zero. 

From the last 6 weeks of this pattern I would then expect a UK HP scenario, core heights maybe different compared to the last few times as the PV now has more substance so the results of the block -v- PV may have subtle variations within the confine of the UK. After that rinse and repeat; sinking high, bit of Atlantic, next wave from Azores?

[Man With Beard]

IDO - slight misreading of the charts here, in my opinion. on the charts you show, mild has been cut off to the UK by the supply flow over E Europe. It may reestablish in later runs but chances are the heights will then be repositioned in such a way that the mild air stays north.

[Seasonality]

38 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Unfortunately, the support from GEFS ENS for easterly is slowly dissapearing. OP and control one of the coldest but even they can't push the cold air west. I'm afraid ECM will be correct again and we will be left with inversion at best even here in central Europe with cold air heading to SE.

Well the para has a nice burst of cold for you. 

[chris55]

Can we pull the rabbit from the hat? See the thing with the rabbit is that you can't see it until it's out, i.e until the first part of the ear is just poking above the rim you have no idea it's in there lol, and that's what we need from the models! can we get  some of the Atlantic energy to undercut and cut off the developing scandi high. Looks very unlikely at face value but Ukmo  does just hint that it's a possibility if we can get that rabbit on it's way out

[Banbury]

49 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Unfortunately, the support from GEFS ENS for easterly is slowly dissapearing. OP and control one of the coldest but even they can't push the cold air west. I'm afraid ECM will be correct again and we will be left with inversion at best even here in central Europe with cold air heading to SE.

At what point were the OP and Control one of the coldest

[Weather Boy]

53 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Unfortunately, the support from GEFS ENS for easterly is slowly dissapearing. OP and control one of the coldest but even they can't push the cold air west. I'm afraid ECM will be correct again and we will be left with inversion at best even here in central Europe with cold air heading to SE.

 

2 hours ago, Mucka said:

 

BREAKING NEWS

The signal for Northern blocking in GFS ensembles in run up to Christmas is strengthening.

 

 

No confusion there for newbies then!

[daz_4]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

At what point were the OP and Control one of the coldest

They are for my location. I wasn't talking about UK 

[Banbury]

Very seasonal feel

 

 

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

They are for my location. I wasn't talking about UK 

Apologies my friend................just seen your location

[Scandinavian High.]

High pressure holding on to the east with GFS MODEL With south easterly flow looks cold to me hard frosts day time max 4-5 in south . if I can't have my snow fix yet I take this anytime. 

Edited December 10, 2016 by abbie123

[Chris.R]

 This is even confusing me and I am a veteran on here! Might be useful if the location people are referring to can always be referenced when not obvious as this is is primarily a UK weather forum so people are naturally going to think everything is relating to here. :-)

[IDO]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

IDO - slight misreading of the charts here, in my opinion. on the charts you show, mild has been cut off to the UK by the supply flow over E Europe. It may reestablish in later runs but chances are the heights will then be repositioned in such a way that the mild air stays north.

I was talking in terms of the month as a whole. The temp forecast for the south for the next week for instance:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpu5w5gx

Hard to spin that as cool let alone cold?

[Richard Taylor]

Agree with Chris above. I sometimes cannot tell if a particular comment relates to the UK as a whole, part of the UK, or a specific location! 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

High pressure holding on to the east with jma. With south easterly flow looks cold to me hard frosts day time max 4-5 in south .

Yes, not a bad mornings runs!

unfortunately though that above chart shows 7-12c in the south not 4-5c 

[daz_4]

7 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

No confusion there for newbies then!

Just to clear up any confusion I was talking specifically about the potential easterly in the next week. Mucka is of course correct. ENS show plenty of northern blocking in FI leading up to Christmas.

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, not a bad mornings runs!

unfortunately though that above chart shows 7-12c in the south not 4-5c 

Not on my laptop it doesn't

[Chris.R]

 So just to clarify: in terms of the UK, how does the OP sit within the ensembles? An intriguing period of model watching unfolding. 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Chris.R

[Scandinavian High.]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, not a bad mornings runs!

unfortunately though that above chart shows 7-12c in the south not 4-5c 

Maybe as we get close to mark trend colder .

[Weather Boy]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

I was talking in terms of the month as a whole. The temp forecast for the south for the next week for instance:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpu5w5gx

Hard to spin that as cool let alone cold?

IDO, I don't think that there is an inconsistency between what you are saying and what others are talking about.  Your original post clearly discussed the next seven days.  Possibility of some less mild weather edging in at times (given the extreme mildness, it would be surprising if that didn't happen) but basically, as you say, no sign of anything other than on the mild side of average at least.

Other posters are referring to relatively strong signals for a Scandi high beyond that i.e. the following week.  Given the range, clearly that cannot yet be trusted and we have been there before, but there are signals which are open for discussion.

Glad to be of service in clearing that up!