Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Carl46Wrexham]

47 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Strong jet flying out of Canada, never good news

As long as it isn't powering through the UK and giving us a repeat of the 2013/14 abomination of a winter season.

 

[knocker]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

finally, looking at the ecm op day 10, a good place for a white Xmas this year might be ........

 Bethlehem! 

By the looks of things even Port Sudan!. Sidney's Sudanese cousins are getting their bootees out/

[Snowy L]

Barbecue time on both ECM and GFS in the run up to Christmas.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If the GFS verifies, a three-week-long bore fest would ensue...Wake me up in March please? 

Agreed Pete, if verifying as we are seeing a seriously dreadful start to winter for wintry episodes.  THE SLUG looks entrenched

 

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

Got too say, too me there is increase trend for the jet stream to finally ride over any Scandi high/Euro block and we end up with the worse ever charts coldies can hope which is very mild SW'lies pumping through the UK all the way into Scandi with a very strong PV over Canada, ECM and GFS have both more or less shown this on many runs now but fortunately its still a little too far out to be sure.

I think for time being, it looks like things will cool down but it will never be cold and I think frosts will be limited to say the least. No doubt we are in a rut but there is some hope with the projected Scandi high but as per seem t be the case for the past 3 or so weeks, any blocking is not going to retrogress favourably for us. There has been so many missed opportunities for us giving the cold pool to the East of us and I fear if the longer term ECM/GFS is right then you can kiss goodbye to that pool and it will be business as usual.

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Barbecue time on both ECM and GFS in the run up to Christmas.

Come off it , its not that mild

[offerman]

Further to my earlier post the latest charts still point to me a mild windy maybe rainy Christmas day.  Also to the person who was rude earlier and said my Geography was bad , well to me and as i mentioned earlier most of Europe does look mild to me...

 

 

[Singularity]

Despite appearances at 850 hPa, only the yellows over N. Ireland and Scotland represent mild conditions at the surface (it's the mild sector of a low getting entrained into the circulation). The yellows to the south are upper level 'warmth' generated by interaction of the SE flow with the Alps - at the surface it's proper chilly.

[stainesbloke]

7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Barbecue time on both ECM and GFS in the run up to Christmas.

Huh? Showing max temps of between 7-13C depending on location, hardly super warm?! 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Come off it , its not that mild

Those are for 6pm, after dusk; they are mild for some. 12c at 6pm is mild, in fact very mild!

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Those are for 6pm, after dusk; they are mild for some. 12c at 6pm is mild, in fact very mild!

No, they're the maximum temperatures for the 6 hours leading up to 6pm.

[Carl46Wrexham]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Huh? Showing max temps of between 7-13C depending on location, hardly super warm?! 

If it's 7c outside the last thing on my mind is "shall we do a barbecue"? My missus would punch me if I made that kind of suggestion in December at such temperatures and rightly so. 

[johnholmes]

I think a coldish surface pattern is looking more and more likely for the Christmas period. The 3 anomaly charts I use to give an idea of the weather type are now fairly consistent with one another. That is they each show the centre of gravity of the upper high being somewhere around sw Norway 6-10 days from now. The NOAA 8-14 keeps this idea running as well. Exactly where either the upper centre and even more so the surface centre will be on any one day is not for this type of prediction. A raging Atlantic does not look likely over the Christmas period though, but the further NW one lives in the UK then the more likely to have less influence from the ridging.

latest charts as usual below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Beyond that, not my area of abilaty to make much comment.

Taking a look at the MJO, my simplistic approach, and the GFS version shows it with almost no effect on our upper air pattern nor does the prediction show it developing any. Both in very low amplitude.Desperately searching for some comfort for cold and snow fanciers neither the AO (predicted to go way above the zero line, nor the NAO, hovering both sides of it, give any comfort. Not surprising as neither of these are drivers, simply effects from how the models suggest upper and surface patterns are most likely to be.

So, at best, on current guidance, some white frost in places for Christmas but highly unlikely in the next 14 days or so for any white to fall from the skies.

 

[karlos1983]

ECM was pretty much at the top of the ensembles up to the 17th where it then sits in the middle of the pack. Destinct scatter thereafter with no clear signal, although to my eye, the milder solutions just about outweigh the colder ones. But I've seen a lot worse ensembles for sure.

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Those are for 6pm, after dusk; they are mild for some. 12c at 6pm is mild, in fact very mild!

Ok

For 90% of the population its not mild its seasonal infact some at 4c is rather chilly id say  , for the Western parts of the UK its milder.

[Ali1977]

Well the charts don't seem to be leaning cold at all this morning (Easterly) - another blip or has the signal finally gone  - for cold before Xmas anyway. Dissapointing 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Ali1977

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

If it's 7c outside the last thing on my mind is "shall we do a barbecue"? My missus would punch me if I made that kind of suggestion in December at such temperatures and rightly so. 

Post of the day..................humour thrown in as it should be

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Those are for 6pm, after dusk; they are mild for some. 12c at 6pm is mild, in fact very mild!

As usual IDO you are painting the mildest slant on what is actually shown. Perhaps if you showed the Met O values for mid December for various places and the predicted value, as has been pointed out to you, the maximum value between 12 and 1800 Z, folk could make their own mind up on the correct terminology?

[Scandinavian High.]

 

Don't think the block to east is not going to be blowen away Iike what GFS is doing more like a battleground hp to east low to the west .  No snow.

Edited December 10, 2016 by abbie123

[booferking]

Just now, abbie123 said:

 

Don't think the block to east is going to blowen away Iike what GFS is doing more like a battleground hp to east low to the west .  No snow.

We need that High to move further North West if where to have any chance of snow, it would be good to hear @Glacier Point views on were he thinks we sit now.

[IDO]

16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

No, they're the maximum temperatures for the 6 hours leading up to 6pm.

Are you sure?

This is then the 6 hours from 12 midnight to 6am minimum temp: 

Is that cold or mild?

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

As usual IDO you are painting the mildest slant on what is actually shown. Perhaps if you showed the Met O values for mid December for various places and the predicted value, as has been pointed out to you, the maximum value between 12 and 1800 Z, folk could make their own mind up on the correct terminology?

I say it as I see it. For late December that is not cold for some, its mild. The vagaries of your location may favour less mild but these charts are not promoting cold. Christmas Day max temps courtesy of the 06z (7c is historical max London, so cooler elsewhere):

Edited December 10, 2016 by IDO

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Are you sure?

This is then the 6 hours from 12 midnight to 6am minimum temp: 

Is that cold or mild?

I say it as I see it. For late December that is not cold for some, its mild. The vagaries of your location may favour less mild but these charts are not promoting cold.Christmas Day max temps courtesy of the 06z:

I'm not debating whether it's cold or mild, I'm correcting you when you said it was the maximum at 6pm only. And yes, I'm sure.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Nick L

[bluearmy]

Come on IDO, the charts you mentioned only had Cornwall showing 12c, the London ECM graph is revealing re the GFS op temps.

you would do better to reference the nighttime temps to illustrate your point high I see you have 

[Ravelin]

Right, I'm gonna break the rules myself just to say, Mods, break out the 'ban hammers' cos I'm fed up of trawling through dross in this thread. One liners, mild or not mild arguments, to BBQ or not BBQ etc. There's been enough warnings already, time to get tough or its going to be a very long winter irrespective of what the weather brings. 

[Nouska]

16 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

If it's 7c outside the last thing on my mind is "shall we do a barbecue"? My missus would punch me if I made that kind of suggestion in December at such temperatures and rightly so. 

LOL, that reminds me of living in Canada - the strange sight of the hubby outside, dressed in parka and salopettes, tending the BBQ while wife and kids indoors, all cosy, awaiting the delicious feast being prepared for them.

Nope, I'll be in Surrey - no BBQs there - look at the theta E and any ideas of that should be quickly dismissed.