Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Cheshire Freeze]

Between 192 and 210 hrs we actually begin to culture our own cold pool...a reminder that even an island at this time of year at this latitude can see such a phenomenon. From about +1 to -4 at 850 level in a day

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week could end on a rather windy note if UKMO is correct

By the time we get there it will be negatively tilted and slipping under the heights that will be to the NE 

[knocker]

Looks like wet end to next week as the upper trough deconstructs and the associated surface low and fronts imp

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Between 192 and 210 hrs we actually begin to culture our own cold pool...a reminder that even an island at this time of year at this latitude can see such a phenomenon. From about +1 to -4 at 850 level in a day

Are you sure you are not looking at this? It seems that some energy is emitted, in the form of a shallow low, from the tongue of cold air to the south east which gets caught up in the circulation of the HP and nips NW over Britain

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, knocker said:

Looks like wet end to next week as the upper trough deconstructs and the associated surface low and fronts imp

Are you sure you are not looking at this? It seems that some energy is emitted, in the form of a shallow low, from the tongue of cold air to the south east which gets caught up in the circulation of the HP and nips NW over Britain

Starts off at about 0C at 850 level Knocker- small blob off Norfolk

Rapidly expands and cools to just about -4 some 18 hrs later

 

 

[igloo]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

By the time we get there it will be negatively tilted and slipping under the heights that will be to the NE 

i like the positive thinking but sure if the GFS  is on to a new trend of the low starting to undercut things would look a lot different in fl not just the default setting you near always see 

[chris55]

UKMO 144 a good chart again today, even though the initial trough makes it through to our north, whats following behind is interesting. A ridge building ahead of the second Low and that little shortwave heading south east. The initial trough should fill in situ allowing a second attempt behind.

 

[SMU]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

S

[IDO]

If you look at the bigger picture, the NH view you will see the trend going the completely wrong way for any FI northern blocking in our region. The Pacific ridge is being tamed on each run and upstream is getting flatter on each run today:

0z   06z   12z: 

We wanted to see the Pacific Ridge sustained from the 0z run, or at least maintained; not flattened. A clear case where we are biding our time for the next 10 days plus in the hope we get better background signals that will stop the PV getting a new lease of life, temporary as it will be.

Looking at the D12 GFS op there is no potential there for blocking: 

Still time for a flip flop but not good.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmmm I do get the impression that it is only a matter of time before the continued interference by the Azores high and repeated block signature to our E/SE buckles the jet sufficiently to promote enough WAA to allow Scandinavian heights to build

Edited December 10, 2016 by CreweCold

[SMU]

Nothing of interest in the 12s

both the UKMO & GFS Awful...

Day 12- worse than 2015

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Starts off at about 0C at 850 level Knocker- small blob off Norfolk

Rapidly expands and cools to just about -4 some 18 hrs later

 

 

Well I don't know what's going on at that level without much more comprehensive upper air charts but I was merely pointing out that the feature was part of the cold upper trough to the SE and broke off and traveled NW to England.

[Chris.R]

 I'm getting mixed messages here again! 

[karlos1983]

Well we best pack up and go home then 

Fl says we got a chance. Usual caveats of course 

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nothing of interest in the 12s

both the UKMO & GFS Awful...

Day 12- worse than 2015

I'll take your day 12 and raise you day 16. A repeating trend towards last week of December and as I said above, given the continued propensity for the Azores high to ridge NE, it was only a matter of time...Charts like this are continuously being signalled within the GEFS so there is a signal there somewhere as we look towards Christmas.

Edited December 10, 2016 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello Jan 1987 a few days later!!!

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'll take your day 12 and raise you day 16. A repeating trend towards last week of December and as I said above, given the continued propensity for the Azores high to ridge NE, it was only a matter of time...

That's just taking the GFS (Pee)

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'll take your day 12 and raise you day 16. A repeating trend towards last week of December and as I said above, given the continued propensity for the Azores high to ridge NE, it was only a matter of time...

It's an interesting evolution Crewe with a flat pulse of heights flying across the Atlantic - more strange tbh 

too far away on a gfs op to take too seriously imo but looking back through historic charts it's sometimes the most innocuous ridges that build into notable ones to deliver cold. We shall see

[Jeremy Shockey]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nothing of interest in the 12s

both the UKMO & GFS Awful...

Day 12- worse than 2015

 

i thought that both the GFS and UKMO were actually quite promising up to 192 ( which is all i care about at the moment ) . Hope you cheer up soon Steve . Sliders possible ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It's an interesting evolution Crewe with a flat pulse of heights flying across the Atlantic - more strange tbh 

too far away on a gfs op to take too seriously imo but looking back through historic charts it's sometimes the most innocuous ridges that build into notable ones to deliver cold. We shall see

Edited December 10, 2016 by CreweCold

[Bullseye]

Confused by the posts in past 30 mins. We have went from UKMO looking good/interesting post 144hr to next post saying no blocking possible in next 16 days to good cold pool of -4 around east England then to round it off next post saying "awful charts, worse than 2015". Onto ECM it is... which won't be much help I would imagine.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That reminds me, shouldn't the December issue be out by now?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

At last, the runs now produce 'out of the blue' trough getting over the UK by 15th/16th on UKMO and GFS.  Really interested in this development.....was beginning to fade my hopes.

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

I think there is probably some confusion between exactly what time period people are talking about - especially re FI.

It would be very difficult to get the charts we want medium term from here not impossible but highly unlikely.

Day 8 to 12 or so we can expect positive height anomalies around UK/NW Europe.

The Christmas period is up for grabs though as far as I can tell even if high pressure favoured mid lat around our location.

I'm definitely not seeing the atlantic Trough sceuro high as nailed on there even allowing for west/east variation and degrees of angular shift within the jetstream.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll take your day 12 and raise you day 16. A repeating trend towards last week of December and as I said above, given the continued propensity for the Azores high to ridge NE, it was only a matter of time...

That is one frame (and not helpful) showing weak heights and is a moving feast. Better to show the previous frames so we can in fact see that it is not a block, just a pocket of weak heights moving in the flow with nominal WAA to pump it up:

D14D16 

A few frames later it will be in Russia/Siberia, and the UK swamped by lower pressure. Though D16 so usual caveats...

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That reminds me, shouldn't the December issue be out by now?

It'll be Monday...was last month