Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[carinthian]

16 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I think this ECM run should make us realise that FI is FI. When was the last time you saw a 1040HP over the SE of England? ...... and in winter?...

Models are obviously struggling somewhere, if this verifies then... well..

 

The pattern change between 144 to168t is just unrealistic.

[Stuie]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The pattern change between 144 to168t is just unrealistic.

Absolutely, as I said above T96 onwards is iffy to say the least. Not sure what driver is causing these issues but the models are struggling.

[Banbury]

^^^^^^^^ Its called weather , this confusion between models is nothing new, no one should be surprised ^^^^^

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Absolutely, as I said above T96 onwards is iffy to say the least. Not sure what driver is causing these issues but the models are struggling.

I'm sure the models are struggling...and I'm struggling to see any realistic prospect of snow for the rest of this year, pretty grotty output for cold / snow lovers..back to the youtube videos to get my snow fix.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure the models are struggling...and I'm struggling to see any realistic prospect of snow for the rest of this year, pretty grotty grizzly output for cold / snow lovers..back to the youtube videos to get my snow fix.

Oh frosty wash your mouth out lol!! All of December   

[Frosty.]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Oh frosty wash your mouth out lol!! All of December   

I have that same hopeless feeling I had last Dec reading some of the posts today, very depressing stuff..The word underwhelming sums it up.

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure the models are struggling...and I'm struggling to see any realistic prospect of snow for the rest of this year, pretty grotty output for cold / snow lovers..back to the youtube videos to get my snow fix.

I agree mate, but that has been on the cards for a while . Best we can get is chilly days and frosts

[Stuie]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

^^^^^^^^ Its called weather , this confusion between models is nothing new, no one should be surprised ^^^^^

Of course but T96 shouldn`t happen.

[Stuie]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure the models are struggling...and I'm struggling to see any realistic prospect of snow for the rest of this year, pretty grotty output for cold / snow lovers..back to the youtube videos to get my snow fix.

Frosty/Karl... me neither but that was an irrelevant post. Rest of the year is almost beyond FI?

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Frosty/Karl... me neither but that was an irrelevant post. Rest of the year is almost beyond FI?

I'm just going by what the models are showing and what the experts are saying, and praying for a miracle!

I look at what's going on across the pond and then look at the cr*p we have to put up with and it makes me sick.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm just going by what the models are showing and what the experts are saying, and praying for a miracle!

Not sure which expert wrote December off to be honest Frosty. Not having a dig, just don't think anyone can write December off! To much uncertainty. But understand feeling a bit let down by the prospects against what should have been.

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[Guest]

i seem to remember back in december 2012 when that ECM went boobs up this place was like a funeral home.....the amount of winters over posts toys out of prams etc... no end in sight of thats it no snow no cold etc... we had a mild xmas and new year and there really was no sign of what J-F-M were about to unleash on us.. so bearing that in mind wouldnt it be a good idea to take stock of what we are seeing be grateful that people are not being displaced from there homes etc due to raging rivers bursting there banks and endless stream of storms from the atlantic and not forgetting the loss of life from last December aswell... still plenty of time left for the cold and snow...im pretty sure it will be a quick snap into cold from the models a bolt from the blue... also would like to add how grateful i am to the more knowledgeable folk in here who really do put a lot of time and effort into producing wonderful post that i find difficult to read but educational all the same... this forum would not be the same without you....so even tho we all want snow and cold at this moment in time the models simply dont seem to want to delivery the goods for us to celebrate... that doesnt mean they wont do so in the future.... regards all...

[gottolovethisweather]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I have that same hopeless feeling I had last Dec reading some of the posts today, very depressing stuff..The word underwhelming sums it up.

 

 

IDOn't if it's any help. Average Temperatures to start next week for most and then the uncertainties begin as soon as Tuesday/Wednesday. Even by then, we're only half way through December. The best of the bunch bar tomorrow's briefly cooler interlude from tonight's ECM is this chart.

 

This being only a D6 chart, there is potential for things to change beforehand as stated above and said evolution after that is very tough to call. A build of Scandi heights is still very much on the cards as is a Jet forecast to dive further South. No deep cold but plenty of crumbs as wise ole Phil NW has stated up thread. Too much X Factor is always bad for your health. We need the ECM UKMO Factor combination to bring us hope as we head towards Christmas and by early to mid-next week I feel it might just do that.

Edited December 10, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure which expert wrote December off to be honest Frosty. Not having a dig, just don't think anyone can write December off! To much uncertainty. But understand feeling a bit let down by the prospects against what should have been.

I'm not actually writing off December completely, I'm just saying as things stand, and hoping for better output each day.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

 

Another of my quick doodles (Nick S you have a rival! Haha)

Much more modest GLAAM drop than GEFS is suggesting - probably within the spread of arrows - then some orbiting in the neutral zone ('phase zero') while we wait for the Pacific tropical forcing to kick in, at which point GLAAM sets off on a merry rise (incredibly loosely depicted), by around 24th IF the current GEFS/UKMET/CANM consensus for the MJO is close to the mark, and not the sluggish, wandering ECM. It's a big deal that either most the models will have widely incorrect background forcing emerging in the 12-16 day range, or ECM will - this applying to the respective ensemble suites as well.

The rise would produce marked results some 4-8 days later, if I have by tropical lag times correct. 24th is toward the latter end of possible dates; if residual IO convection is obscuring the true picture in the H-W plot shown then a response a little sooner in time is possible.

With all this in mind, you can see some reasoning for the Met Office backing an Atlantic/Sceuro Block type standoff for the early part of the festive period; we'll probably be 'neither here nor there' with the tropical forcing at that time.

[Man With Beard]

Evening crew, well i must agree the improvements needed to get deep cold in from the east by T192 have not happened on the ops (still there on a few ensembles). BUT - there is a very deep low in the Atlantic at T96. This will be hard to pin down until even nearer the time, and could have ramifications even fairly early on in runs during the next two days. A really deep low may barrel on further south. I see one ensemble (not backed up of course) turns it into a channel low!!

[bobbydog]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not actually writing off December completely, I'm just saying as things stand, and hoping for better output each day.

On a positive note, all these depressing charts are in F.I. (whenever that is...) therefore the only way things could get worse is if the F.I. charts actually verify. And when does that ever happen!.........

[nick sussex]

Tragic is all I have to say regarding the ECM output. Flat as a pancake upstream with a tightly coiled PV at T240hrs.

That output must not verify! The only thing saving an even more tragic output is that area of low heights over north Africa and southern Spain which stops the high from sinking completely.

Even though we have two windows of opportunity the jet never allows for anything to develop. I'm not sure I can bear to look at the ECM ensembles!

After raiding the drinks cabinet I managed to summon up the courage to face the ECM ensembles, two distinct clusters appearing day 9 into 10, the op is in between, one milder one colder. We'll have to see the longer range ones to see if those colder ones are just the high further north or if something else is on offer.

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by nick sussex

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tragic is all I have to say regarding the ECM output. Flat as a pancake upstream with a tightly coiled PV at T240hrs.

That output must not verify! The only thing saving an even more tragic output is that area of low heights over north Africa and southern Spain which stops the high from sinking completely.

 Even though we have two windows of opportunity the jet never allows for anything to develop. I'm not sure I can bear to look at the ECM ensembles!

 

Not pretty Nick !

My optimism is fading, but not gone completely, mainly because we don't seem to be able to get 2 consecutive runs that produce the same outcome! 

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not pretty Nick !

My optimism is fading, but not gone completely, mainly because we don't seem to be able to get 2 consecutive runs that produce the same outcome! 

Unfortunately Karlos its really variations on the same theme, high either further north or south and the ECM spreads show the main spread to the north of the UK. Anyway I've called in Indiana Jones to start the search for something more interesting! lol

[Summer Sun]

The best we can really hope for from the ECM ens is some frosts if the skies are clear overnight and the wind is light (more likely the further south & SE you are) the further north and west you are you'll be more prone to some rain or cloud as systems pass to the west

Edited December 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My optimism is fading, but not gone completely

I think the main problem is some of us got sucked into the front loaded winter hype nonsense and the current models / weather has made a mockery out of that..can only hope for better runs. 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the main problem is some of us got sucked into the front loaded winter hype nonsense and the current models / weather has made a mockery out of that..can only hope for better runs. 

Yes, well it was hard not too really, week after week of blocky updates, then the carpet rug swept from beneath us... sigh.

I'm moving to Florida, might get some decent uppers in winter there. 

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the main problem is some of us got sucked into the front loaded winter hype nonsense and the current models / weather has made a mockery out of that..can only hope for better runs. 

Indeed and maybe less is more in the future regarding getting to hooked up on such longrange forecasts , background signals ete.Like nick just mentioned the ecm this evening is as rank as you could have hoped for atm.Looking at the nhp and the shape of the pv its difficult to see where any heigths will build and cause any split or affect the jet.Guess the upside is things can only improve during the coming weeks into the new year.

[ArHu3]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the main problem is some of us got sucked into the front loaded winter hype nonsense and the current models / weather has made a mockery out of that..can only hope for better runs. 

The current weather sucks and well the whole of December really has, I don't like dry cold and prefer snow but over here in Holland we have seen the coldest St Nicolas Eve in 20 years and we have seen some cold records shattered for november/ early december. It was not what we had hoped for but the forecasts were more or less right...