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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

If you look closely at the GFS its aleady going a bit pearshaped at T72hrs. It has the shortwave in the Atlantic much further north than either the UKMO or GEM at that stage, this then phases quickly with upstream energy. This then helps to cut off the cold advection into the UK much quicker. All the outputs have a shortwave but the GFS makes the worst of it. Preferably we want this shortwave as far to the sw as possible:

gfsnh-0-72.png

 

 

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Another cold control run. Operational milder again.

tempresult_jiq2.gif

tempresult_tzx9.gif

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the most 'scandi ridge' gefs suite yet and if that's where we go (even a supressed one,)  then I hope some of you will doff your caps to the ecm op.

in the meantime, plenty of uncertainty to keep us glued to each run and suite

BA, I was never saying a scandi ridge wasn't possible, I was always, and still am saying that one high latitude enough to give a potent Easterly like some ECM op runs isn't, I am still saying that even a Thames streamer or a Kent clipper will not happen, it will be dry foggy and frosty for the SE in the next phase of our weather and wet in the Far North West of Britain.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

I give up lol

GFS ens definitely trending colder with some easterlies in there, and a marked improvement from yesterday, though the Op and clustering are mild. Then we have the 00z EC ens which showed the GFS 00z as one of the mildest option . Then there is UKMO op and GEM op to consider.

12z GFS

 GFSENS12_52_0_205.png

00Z ens

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Will the op be another mild outiler????? I have no idea lol.

 

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johnny1972 Explorer

johnny1972

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
Posted
32 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO @72 interesting for those in the south :0

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

Also the UKMO has moved towards the ECM keeping that Atlantic feature to the west of the ridge although not quite as amplified. Whereas GFS pushes it through flattening things. This will influence the potential easterly type flow that "could" develop.

For me UKMO and GFS are chalk and cheese at 144, with the UKMO far more conducive to the easterly type evolution (more like the ECM)

 UKMO ridging to Norway!

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

GFS flatter..ridging into Germany!

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

Both charts mild with SW winds for most of the UK. On wrong side of HP again !!

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

As requested...

 

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

After following the ups and downs of the lastv5-7 days what i have noticed that every model shows promise after the 7 day mark.It then eventually drops the idea and so far this winter leaves a mlb or euro heigths.Im not moaning but everything keeps getting pushed back and a couple of posts earlier mentioned the pacific ridging and pressure coming of the esb could bring hope in feb.Maybe thats possible and may happen but looking at the pv and our old euro slug im not so sure.The 2-3 day cold snap coming up from the nw giving snow showers is really just normal winter fair but i guess after this winters efforts so far its better than nothing.Heres hoping the 12z ecm throws up a great run !!!

I saw earlier mention of MJO amplification P1 going P2. Just more of the same ... mid level European heights from what I see on the anomaly composites. Maybe a bit more promise for P2 in Feb.

JanuaryPhase1gt1500mb.gif FebruaryPhase2gt1500mb.gif

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BA, I was never saying a scandi ridge wasn't possible, I was always, and still am saying that one high latitude enough to give a potent Easterly like some ECM op runs isn't, I am still saying that even a Thames streamer or a Kent clipper will not happen, it will be dry foggy and frosty for the SE in the next phase of our weather and wet in the Far North West of Britain.

did I say you were?  my point being that at day 9/10, to identify the feature was pretty good going. even if we end up with a suppressed version, it will still be a good call at that range. ops at that range are not going to get things bang on, especially when a ridge like that is involved. a few hundred miles makes a big difference to the uk on a scandi ridge.

anyway, it may well get blown away before its formed !

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

did I say you were?  my point being that at day 9/10, to identify the feature was pretty good going. even if we end up with a suppressed version, it will still be a good call at that range. ops at that range are not going to get things bang on, especially when a ridge like that is involved. a few hundred miles makes a big difference to the uk on a scandi ridge.

anyway, it may well get blown away before its formed !

True but you criticised me for using a mean chart the other day but the  D10 Ecm mean looks like its going to be proved even more accurate with regard to the aforementioned pattern.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Also to note......

No cold envy going to be directed at the USA if the 00z ECM has got that pattern correct. And, anecdotally at least, a warm US is not a pad precurser for a cold UK :)  

 ECMOPNA00_240_2.png

Edited by chris55
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Big three at t96

IMG_7424.GIF

IMG_7425.PNG

IMG_7426.GIF

ECM looking good to me, keeping the Atlantic low west!

 

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, chris55 said:

ECM looking good to me, keeping the Atlantic low west!

 

Indeed it's still by far the best, uppers are a slight worry though as they have been watered down at T96 - worse than the GFS

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doctor32 Community Regular

doctor32

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
Posted

More of a northerly flow on the ecm @ 92hrs, which would mean more chance of snow showers down eastern side of uk.ECM1-96.GIF

As the low to the east pulls away into europe ECU1-96.gif

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

ECM looking good to me, keeping the Atlantic low west!

 

Yup, should be better than UKMO as far as the ridge goes. The low out West just showing a hint of wanting to neg tilt.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Normally you'd think upto T96hrs you could say with confidence how much cold air the UK will have coming south but I'd urge some caution until the shortwave in the Atlantic is agreed on. You can see the difference between the ECM/UKMO and the GFS because of the way they handle that upto T96hrs.

The ECM at T120hrs has the sharper PV upstream and stronger ridge to the ne, this should be better than the UKMO at T144hrs.

Edited by nick sussex
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

ECM 120 best of the big 3

ECH1-120.GIF

A huge difference with GFS.

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Optimus Prime Rising Star

Optimus Prime

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Posted
9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Also to note......

No cold envy going to be directed at the USA if the 00z ECM has got that pattern correct. And, anecdotally at least, a warm US is not a pad precurser for a cold UK :)  

 ECMOPNA00_240_2.png

Goodness me! I thought you had posted an archive chart of late May or June for a minute there.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

GFS looks particularly lonely again on how it's developing that energy around southern Greenland

Look at the pressure over Iceland, that's a crazy difference in this day and age at day 5

IMG_7428.GIF

IMG_7429.PNG

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beefy201 Enthusiast

beefy201

Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
Posted
19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

As requested...

 

Thank you

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Im backing the Euros re that Atlantic shortwave. ECM has been solid. Now we can work out where we end up from here.

ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

Edited by chris55
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