Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Earlier on it had a sharper diving low than even GFS - on a par with the ECM 00z in fact.

 

Alas it then bombed out a low S of Greenland (typical of the model) - but it may yet finish with a flourish:

MJO forcing coming into play it would seem.

 

Absolutely , the way forward after next week is look out for high pressure to build north in the Atlantic toward Greenland, looks like a possible west-NAO setting up on the gfs with a tanking -AO to match, interesting times at last 

[Jonan92]

Just for fun but GEM with this map would bring some cold air from north in the future

[Ali1977]

The Atlantic just can't get in on the GFS, some seriosly cold nights again and possibilty of a few rogue flurries but mainly just very cold by day and extremely cold nights (for the UK)

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

I think Margate just about clips it though.  Lol 

In all seriousness though, the GFS Op would have the south of the UK in single figure maxima for the next 10 days at least if it verified at face value, despite the moderation in 850hpa temps.

A true, convective easterly & a zonal atlantic westerly look about as likely as eachother right now, with a high situated somewhere over the North/North east of the UK.  The south therefore at risk of a continental draft.

as in 9 C ?

[Summer Sun]

Could be quite a bit of frost about if skies clear looking at UKMO fog would be likely too

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Absolutely , the way forward after next week is look out for high pressure to build north in the Atlantic toward Greenland, looks like a possible west-NAO setting up on the gfs with a tanking -AO to match, interesting times at last 

that's something which looks a long way off according to the extended ens over the past week

[SMU]

Some comments about GFS not cold

next sat MAXIMA!!!

[AWD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

as in 9 C ?

That's if you believe the GFS temp charts which many a time, have overdone the maxima for my location.

Would expect, with the exception of early next week, maxima around 5/6/7c IMBY.  

All academic anyway at this range.

[Jonan92]

Interesting FI

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Some comments about GFS not cold

next sat MAXIMA!!!

Very cold, any idea on night temps next week - the 06z looked slightly colder but I imagine double digits are poss still?

[Anon90]

Just now, Jonan92 said:

Interesting FI

Indeed, hints of the MJO starting to show it's hand perhaps?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

That's if you believe the GFS temp charts which many a time, have overdone the maxima for my location.

Would expect, with the exception of early next week, maxima around 5/6/7c IMBY.  

All academic anyway at this range.

Sorry but it would be way colder, especially down south.

[mpkio2]

Way out into FL, GFS listens to GP's earlier post of lows to SW hitting the cold air to our NE.....

GFS 12z t264:

Just for fun, guys!

[SMU]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Very cold, any idea on night temps next week - the 06z looked slightly colder but I imagine double digits are poss still?

~ -4/-6 across the piste maybe a -10...

I would love the GFS run with a 150 mile correction North, 7 days sub zero in England is mega rare...

[Weathizard]

Typical the PV decides to start edging east to stop our high getting sufficient lattitude for a proper easterly, there's still some chances but i honestly think the ECM will move to more GFS style easterly with high pressure still too close by! The GEFS this morning had minimal interest in any convective easterly scenario

[Mucka]

Ironic that the SE look like having better snowfall chances than the NW on the face of it with two possible snow events.

Thereafter staying cold in the E with a continental flow but milder further N and W so more to be excited about in the SE than NW which may explain why some are less enthused than others about the current output.

That said maintaining some form of mid lat block will give better prospects of some form of reload in FI, hopefully with Atlantic blocking again.

Unless the high can get further North then N parts will only see a brief cold snap with a quick warm up and then slow cool off again but the SE may be able to hold on to cold for quite some time if they they can pick up a continental flow as seems likely.

Could even be an epic cold spell for the SE if they land the snow tomorrow and then again on Friday from the band potentially pushing down the East side of the country - marginal events but if they are both snowy followed by cold continental flow then they could maintain any snow cover and cold day temps. Then again they may get rain and sleet and it will be big disappointment. I really hope it comes off but there will be chaos in the capital of SE England if it does.

[MKN]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Some comments about GFS not cold

next sat MAXIMA!!!

Cold yes. Snowy no.

[SMU]

Interesting JMA T84

Very sharp @84 with the cold never leaving the E/SE

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

Cold yes. Snowy no.

Not snowy yet

once the cold sets in things can and will change

just look at tomorrow's events still changing

prob change again with the 0z

[warrenb]

GFS exactly as the Meto 15 dayer is worded

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting JMA T84

Very sharp @84 with the cold never leaving the E/SE

Could you see this position regarding things from the east improving ie things moving north bringing a more substantial easterly?tia

[Mucka]

Something like this would be nice

Given how GFS overdevelops lows and doesn't really see trough disruption in low res something like that would give us the chance of undercut and retrogression.

Talking of undercut I have read a few times about undercut bringing any continental flow which is confusing as undercut is really when Westerly flow undercuts a block and not a trough being trapped over the continent and running back west in a reverse flow.

[Stozzy]

Some of the gfs ensembles showing easterlies so I would definitely not say game over for an easterlie just yet

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z T30

Massive upgrade

If this verifies is should be quite an event for the Midlands

....at rush hour.

METO:

Edited January 11, 2017 by Iceaxecrampon

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Some of the gfs ensembles showing easterlies so I would definitely not say game over for an easterlie just yet

but does more than one of them get the latitude of the surface high n of the op? any potential widespread snowfall from the easterly/soueasterly flow would be dependent on the evolution of the euro trough and that is generally not an easy feature to model