Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[mb018538]

If anyone cares, the 6z GFS is a horror show of gales and low pressure. Nothing like ECM or UKMO. Someone is very wrong here!!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If anyone cares, the 6z GFS is a horror show of gales and low pressure. Nothing like ECM or UKMO. Someone is very wrong here!!

Yes - none of the Ops are right as yet

the ecm mean heights (not anomolies) was good guidance a couple weeks ago and I would propose that's where you look for the time being if you need an answer 

 

[Paul_1978]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Yes - none of the Ops are right as yet

the ecm mean heights (not anomolies) was good guidance a couple weeks ago and I would propose that's where you look for the time being if you need an answer 

 

So what is the answer BA?

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

I'd think your post-graduate qualification in meteorology justifies your 'banging on' most of the rest of us are just rank amateurs who like watching forecast model output. 

Haha cheers - I suppose someone's got to do it . Some years ago I was just as most on here are now, and enjoying the ride without having to worry about the implications for locations here, there and everywhere (just my own back  yard!) - I've had a lot of extra headaches this season 

GFS 06z of no help whatsoever as it keeps the western N. Atlantic trough flatter while also having the low to our N taking longer to clear, meaning less of a gap for those slight height rises that ECM and UKMO show as the shortwave low runs/slides ESE across or near far-S UK on its way to Europe. This also being something GFS fails to produce - you can really see how subtle changes can have major knock-on effects.

[The Northern Ramper]

Standard Gfs output when a cold block is involved and small pockets of height rises.

Watch the Gfs take until tomorrow's 12z before we are singing from the same hymn sheet.

[Seasonality]

17 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Standard Gfs output when a cold block is involved and small pockets of height rises.

Watch the Gfs take until tomorrow's 12z before we are singing from the same hymn sheet.

Could be, of note is the GEFS that are just now rolling out. There are significant differences apparent in the short term involving the trough disruption which create big differences even this weekend with the European cold pool and the resultant downstream pattern. I am usually loath to ascribe to anecdotal 'lore' about the models, but the output by UKMO and ECM makes me question the veracity of the 06z's insistence on an Atlantic onslaught. The 12z output will certainly be interesting tonight.

[bluearmy]

31 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

So what is the answer BA?

42

[Singularity]

Just now, bluearmy said:

42

Is that the number of possible scenarios? 

Sorry mods - couldn't resist!

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Could be, of note is the GEFS that are just now rolling out. There are significant differences apparent in the short term involving the trough disruption which create big differences even this weekend with the European cold pool and the resultant downstream pattern. I am usually loath to ascribe to anecdotal 'lore' about the models, but the output by UKMO and ECM makes me question the veracity of the 06z's insistence on an Atlantic onslaught. The 12z output will certainly be interesting tonight.

I just picked  one at random

[frosty ground]

Control Run from the GFS...... 

 

[booferking]

The last few runs have been picking up pockets of height rises to are North that to me alone is significant, looking like they could join up with the high to the east.

[Day 10]

John Hammond ‏@hammondweather

Resumption of normal Atlantic westerlies delayed until further notice (again). Models keep trying. Keep failing. Dry winter continues.

 

 

[Paul_1978]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

42

Helpful. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Helpful. 

As insightful as the 00z ops were Paul !

at some point either the blocking or the Atlantic have to run out of steam - coldies hope neither do and that the Atlantic undercuts the blocking close enough to the uk to bring snowfall

imo, its tough to foresee widespread sustained snowfall coming from this as it stands but the models are clearly struggling with both westward and eastward corrections at different latitudes and one wonders if this might be added to by the warming high up and how that impacts lower down as it forces chunks of stronger zonal flow into the lower strat/upper trop

 getting closer to the initial strong warming so hopefully things will soon resolve 

[nick sussex]

Quite a surprise this morning re the ECM/UKMO with that little pressure rise to the north managing to deflect the jet further south. The GFS still not interested and the ECM ensembles not behind it so best to not get too excited until tonights outputs.

I really hope the Euros are right here, it would be great to see this trend accelerated.

.

[jvenge]

There are a few GEFS from the 6z closer to the UKMO and ECM. On the 0z there really weren't anything you could say were looking the same at T144.

[Day 10]

So along with the more positive runs from the UKMO & ECM. We now have a handful of GFS ensembles running into a brick wall and showing some interest. Granted they are lower res, let's hope this kind of trend grows. The control looks better too.

 

[bluearmy]

FIM is interested 

[joggs]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

FIM is interested 

??

Don't understand bluearmy,sorry.

[jvenge]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

So along with the more positive runs from the UKMO & ECM. We now have a handful of GFS ensembles running into a brick wall and showing some interest. Granted they are lower res, let's hope this kind of trend grows. The control looks better too.

 

My understanding of the GEFS is that its only the control run that is at a lower resolution. The ensembles are at the same resolution as the Op, but with different data starting points. Happy to be corrected if not so.

[jvenge]

This thread is quite dead recently.

GFS Para also not similar to the ECM or UKMO.

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

My understanding of the GEFS is that its only the control run that is at a lower resolution. The ensembles are at the same resolution as the Op, but with different data starting points. Happy to be corrected if not so.

 I thought they were all at a lower resolution and control just has the same starting conditions as the op?

[jvenge]

Just now, Chris.R said:

 I thought they were all at a lower resolution and control just has the same starting conditions as the op?

I'm sure someone will clear it up soon :-)

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

My understanding of the GEFS is that its only the control run that is at a lower resolution. The ensembles are at the same resolution as the Op, but with different data starting points. Happy to be corrected if not so.

My understanding is the ensembles are lower resolution to the op with different starting points.

 

 

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

My understanding is the ensembles are lower resolution to the op with different starting points.

 

 

You are right. Googled it.