Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[booferking]

What an awful pattern were stuck in Atlantic cant fully get in the high cant produce a notable country wide cold spell even a flurry yuck...

Edited January 23, 2017 by booferking

[Man With Beard]

EC monthly finally drops the cold outlook. With its track record this winter, could be a good sign.

[The Enforcer]

On 14/01/2017 at 19:54, The Enforcer said:

I think the overriding message is this: don't take the models, ensembles or means at face value for pattern until about T+72 and detail until T+6. With this in mind, it is fairly clear how much weight can be given to mild zonal charts at T+240, when there are 14/34 opportunities for the pattern to change and 20/40 opportunities for the detail to change.

On 14/01/2017 at 20:11, Man With Beard said:

I'm not sure that will be the case by next weekend. I've had a skim through todays ECM, GFS and GEM ops and ensemble means and I was surprised to see broad agreement on some general themes - strong trough to the west of Iceland, strong ridging in front of it. Only this morning's ECM op significantly bucked that trend. The result would probably be reinforcement of the UK high into D9-D10 but with more of an Atlantic feed. The boundaries of the pattern would allow a temporary northerly at the beginning of the period (e.g. GEM) or a touch more unsettled in the NW of the UK (ECM tonight).

How can I be so confident? Well I think it's just occurred to me that, over the course of the winter so far, every day there has been at least one op or mean run from the ECM, GFS or GEM that has proved correct for the UK at D8. And if you take the same view with these runs, there isn't much divergence on what I've described at all so this would be 9/10 likely to be correct.

On 14/01/2017 at 20:45, The Enforcer said:

Worth bookmarking this for a review on Monday 23rd Jan.

T+216:

T+6:

A lot of similarities, biggest difference is lower heights in the med helping to prop it up the High a little.

Edited January 23, 2017 by The Enforcer

[joggs]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

EC monthly finally drops the cold outlook. With its track record this winter, could be a good sign.

You watch it be right now it's a milder sign al lol.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, joggs said:

You watch it be right now it's a milder sign al lol.

It's bound to be correct.  Little chance of any deep cold and snow now,

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

T+216:

T+6:

A lot of similarities, biggest difference is lower heights in the med helping to prop it up the High a little.

Yes the main thrust of my forecast was correct, but a bit more cold got in the mix than expected. But the progression between T216 and T6 doesn't reveal the huge swings in the models been then and now!

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at the difference at just 96 hrs on the ens,plenty going for trough disruption though

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Look at the difference at just 96 hrs on the ens,plenty going for trough disruption though

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

Just looking through them myself. Some very interesting set ups by day 7. Very odd tbh and presumably come the morning normal service will be resumed.

[booferking]

Quite a few ens picking up height rises towards Iceland/Greenland this is what we want to see. We can build on that further maybe a new trend.

[Allseasons-Si]

@booferking

Have you any straws left lol?

i wouldn't take nothing for granted past t96,FL from there i would say,until we get this trough resolved then we will continue to twiddle our thumbs

 

[Nick F]

Although deep cold and snow looks like a distant dream, looks like it could be a rather raw day on Thursday as we drag in a strengthening SEly flow with quite low dew points for daytime, temperatures struggling:

 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@booferking

Have you any straws left lol?

i wouldn't take nothing for granted past t96,FL from there i would say,until we get this trough resolved then we will continue to twiddle our thumbs

 

What were still talking about the trough around 96hr to deliver the phatom iv moved on from that searching for a new trend

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

What were still talking about the trough around 96hr to deliver the phatom iv moved on from that searching for a new trend

96hrs is still a way off in weather terms,lets see what tomorrow brings,if there is no upgrade there then i will look for a new trend

a raging northerly?

 

[Mucka]

Well it has been bleak for cold weather and snow fans for some time and I expect that to continue.

We do at least have the strat warming though and GFS ensembles are possibly responding with a signal for potential blocking to build in second week of Feb.

Yes deepest, deepest FI but it's all we have at the moment.

[The PIT]

lol GFS follows ukmo earlier lead only for the ukmo to change its mind from a zonal express and go for a less active Atlantic.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

lol GFS follows ukmo earlier lead only for the ukmo to change its mind from a zonal express and go for a less active Atlantic.

GFS not really having support from its ensembles from T102 or so. Unusual. 

[mb018538]

UKMO is very interesting this morning - completely at odds with the GFS again, though this time in a good way!
GFS is basically zonal right out to 384, with nothing positive whatsoever. Interesting what the ECM makes of all this soon.

[That ECM]

Interesting, maybe not as clear cut as we may think!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

GFS/ECM/UKMO

      

Hmm interesting little divergence by the Euros this morning by somehow producing some amplification in the Atlantic to allow a deeper area of the low heights to move south/south east through the country and allows the ridge to our east to back west again. Both the ECM and UKMO would be pretty chilly at day 6. 

The differences begin around day 5 with the Euros keeping that weak Atlantic ridge and move it east whilst the GFS flattens this with a strong jet blowing through the south of the UK. Given certain things going on behind the scenes, you do just have to wonder whether we could see a sudden change in proceedings. 

Edited January 24, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Seasonality]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO is very interesting this morning - completely at odds with the GFS again, though this time in a good way!
GFS is basically zonal right out to 384, with nothing positive whatsoever. Interesting what the ECM makes of all this soon.

There'll be some head scratching in Bracknell this morning. Rather nice little surprise of a chart from ECM. Cold pool over SE England, Northern France and Benelux as resistance to the Atlantic continues. If it ends up Euros vs GFS then the battle isn't over yet.

[Seasonality]

OMG. *edit. Look at where this is going. The phantom menace anyone? And at 168h. Not 240. With support from ukmo.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Seasonality

[Seasonality]

Frigid air over central and eastern Europe if this comes off. And as an aside this run should be a lesson for the absolutist moaners who insisted it was all over and the outlook wouldn't change. Not saying it will verify, but worth thinking about.

 

[Seasonality]

Poor old @jvenge if this were to come off. Moldova utterly frozen.

[northwestsnow]

Yes ecm follows ukmo and sends more energy SE - must be getting close to a battleground scenario now...

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes ecm follows ukmo and sends more energy SE - must be getting close to a battleground scenario now...

Close and some fascinating outcomes possible. Going to be an exciting day of model watching.