Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[That ECM]

Might not be right but at least it's of interest. Ridge out nw separating the lows. Possible northerly followed by blocking to our nw?  In the short term, back garden is like concrete and has been for awhile, will be for a few more days yet!! 

Edited January 23, 2017 by That ECM

[bluearmy]

A less depressing set of runs for coldies though yesterday morning was a pretty low point

the blocking looks to hang on for longer in general and that opens up all sorts of solutions (some of which reman zonal and unsettled)

[jvenge]

Fairly dry for much of Europe over the next 5 days or so.

 

[Singularity]

With the trends of late, this extension on the trough could feasibly become more pronounced and end up like Friday's feature.

It does make me wonder just how long this mostly benign battle could be drawn out for. Odds on now for January to be the driest on record here, assuming of course that GFS has lost the plot a bit with the Friday system which has significant consequences for the path of the Atlantic lows over the following few days.

Trying not to yawn too much on this freezing-fog-shrouded Monday morning 

[ArHu3]

14 hours ago, Steady Easterly said:

Its been an extremely dissapointing and highly frustrating Winter, all the signals seemed to suggest cold or deep cold, but it just hasnt worked out that way, to me it just goes to show that you just never know, the weather will do as it wants, and all the teleconnections and stratospheric suggestions dont mean zip, until you see that powdery drift building nicely on your doorstep.

However it may still come yet, we are entering the part of winter that traditionally produces the goods, and ive seen worst patterns than we see now looking forward to the remainder of Winter.

This is only true if you live in the UK, western Benelux and maybe the US east coast, otherwise this has been an extra-ordinary winter for most parts of the northern hemisfere, with a meter of snow even in the Sahara, snow in Crete and Benidorm 

[jvenge]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

This is only true if you live in the UK, western Benelux and maybe the US east coast, otherwise this has been an extra-ordinary winter for most parts of the northern hemisfere, with a meter of snow even in the Sahara, snow in Crete and Benidorm 

Dare I say, pretty much average for the UK? By its definition, the weather experienced is what the UK normally receives.

That said, you can also say that the UK has really been unlucky so far this winter, especially when you look at the rest of Europe.

[stodge]

Morning all

After a fair degree of model concensus, that breaks down spectacularly with UKMO, GFS and ECM all going their own ways in the reasonably short term.

UKMO never allows the Atlantic in to the south keeping the jet well to the north and building a new ridge from the Azores HP at T+144.

ECM oscillates the jet further south and suppresses the Azores HP completely keeping us in a cooler Atlantic airflow from the west.

GFS has been consistent in modelling a spell of long fetch SW'lies through next weekend (could be 12-14c further south next Sunday) before a group of vigorous LP provide a stormier start to Feb.

Plenty of colder options in far FI on the Ensembles as the weakened PV staggers round like a drunk on a Saturday night but blocking here, there and everywhere in truth though a significant cluster keeps the Atlantic in charge even to the end of FI.

Both ECM and UKMO hold the far SE under "the continental solution" until Friday and you'd back that over the more progressive GFS but plenty to look at and consider in the early output and let's see where the week takes us.  

[Turnedoutniceagain]

4 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all

After a fair degree of model concensus, that breaks down spectacularly with UKMO, GFS and ECM all going their own ways in the reasonably short term.

UKMO never allows the Atlantic in to the south keeping the jet well to the north and building a new ridge from the Azores HP at T+144.

ECM oscillates the jet further south and suppresses the Azores HP completely keeping us in a cooler Atlantic airflow from the west.

GFS has been consistent in modelling a spell of long fetch SW'lies through next weekend (could be 12-14c further south next Sunday) before a group of vigorous LP provide a stormier start to Feb.

Plenty of colder options in far FI on the Ensembles as the weakened PV staggers round like a drunk on a Saturday night but blocking here, there and everywhere in truth though a significant cluster keeps the Atlantic in charge even to the end of FI.

Both ECM and UKMO hold the far SE under "the continental solution" until Friday and you'd back that over the more progressive GFS but plenty to look at and consider in the early output and let's see where the week takes us.  

Hopefully the 'stormier start to Feb' hinted at by the GFS will come off. My local reservoir is nearer to mid-summer water levels than Winter. We need the Winter rains to keep us going for the Summer.

[Ice Day]

Looking at the 6z rolling out, some changes at only 114 regarding the cold pool to the east of the UK. This is showing a marked move west from the 0z and is something Steve M mentioned last night.  Something that needs watching?

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking at the 6z rolling out, some changes at only 114 regarding the cold pool to the east of the UK. This is showing a marked move west from the 0z and is something Steve M mentioned last night.  Something that needs watching?

Cold pool is definitely moving west but the distance from uk is like earth from mars way to much distance to make up Greece & Italy hot spot once again. Mid Feb is my last roll of the dice if nothing then roll on Spring,

[SMU]

06z out to 168 moves a fair way to the UKMO Solution - never allowing the atlantic to break through the cold UK ( esp the SE )

Upper air cold pool progged to be a lot further west as well...

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Cold pool is definitely moving west but the distance from uk is like earth from mars way to much distance to make up Greece & Italy hot spot once again. Mid Feb is my last roll of the dice if nothing then roll on Spring,

You're probably right, but the GFS has moved it at least 500 miles west on one run!  Even at 180, you can see the difference in cold positioning vs earlier run.

More depth to the cold as well. As you say, probably not worth getting excited about but it will be interesting if the westward corrections continue.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Cold pool is definitely moving west but the distance from uk is like earth from mars way to much distance to make up Greece & Italy hot spot once again. Mid Feb is my last roll of the dice if nothing then roll on Spring,

Depends! :-) If we talk about will it shift west on the next run, for the same time period, to be situated over the UK. Likely, no. However, at later times, it can stop the UK roasting under the 0z predicted temps and perhaps even introduce some cold to the south of the UK. (the area that had it most recently).

Let's see, still rolling out.

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Depends! :-) If we talk about will it shift west on the next run, for the same time period, to be situated over the UK. Likely, no. However, at later times, it can stop the UK roasting under the 0z predicted temps and perhaps even introduce some cold to the south of the UK. (the area that had it most recently).

Let's see, still rolling out.

This is what we want to see lows running south jet in spain cold air behind lows, also far better chance of the low under cut the high with the jet that far South later on.

[ArHu3]

14 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Depends! :-) If we talk about will it shift west on the next run, for the same time period, to be situated over the UK. Likely, no. However, at later times, it can stop the UK roasting under the 0z predicted temps and perhaps even introduce some cold to the south of the UK. (the area that had it most recently).

Let's see, still rolling out.

at least the t850 for the austrian alps went from +12 to -4 that saved my winter holiday at least

[seaside 60]

So the GFS show a totally different scene this morning.
I cant believe anyone is making predictions based on the models at the moment.
The ECM and UKMO every day are showing the block holding fast with only a little movement east wards.
ANyone basing long drawn SW winds from the previous GFS runs need to think again. 

[chris55]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

This is what we want to see lows running south jet in spain cold air behind lows, also far better chance of the low under cut the high with the jet that far South later on.

This could be something to watch!!

With the stubbornness of the Euro high and with the models subsequently struggling to bring the Atlantic through with any conviction, could we end up in a situation where the jet heads south and undercuts ultimately acting to finally drive some cold air west?

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

This could be something to watch!!

With the stubbornness of the Euro high and with the models subsequently struggling to bring the Atlantic through with any conviction, could we end up in a situation where the jet heads south and undercuts ultimately acting to finally drive some cold air west?

 

Excatly any easterly that will come will come from the Jet firing South in Spain 192hr onwards, anyboby hoping on something before this is a long shot,  for the first time in donkey ages the jet looks like it might play ball in helping instead of roaring over the top.

[bluearmy]

The eps are definitely correcting the mean jet further south in the extended 

whether that translates to nw Europe sitting under an Atlantic influenced mean trough or the jet firing away to the south and drawing continental air into the systems as they approach remains the question 

the potential battleground scenario of Atlantic pushing ne against a building sceuro ridge extending nw towards Iceland gains a bit more credence today 

 

Edited January 23, 2017 by bluearmy

[Seasonality]

34 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Depends! :-) If we talk about will it shift west on the next run, for the same time period, to be situated over the UK. Likely, no. However, at later times, it can stop the UK roasting under the 0z predicted temps and perhaps even introduce some cold to the south of the UK. (the area that had it most recently).

Let's see, still rolling out.

For my central European location ECM has introduced a much colder regime again this week. If I take the 00z output as read then it'll be -14 on Friday morning, just a couple of days ago I was looking at mildish weather for that period. Now the 06z operational is making a move that has been hinted at in the last couple of sets of ensembles and extending the freezing regime into the first days of February, there'll more ice fishing on the River Vistula if it comes off. Looks even colder in Moldova. Very dry and high pressure dominated, so lots of old dirty snow and sheet ice hanging around.

*edit. Just to emphasise that a fair few have commented that the cold over Europe will be much harder to shift than predicted initially. Looking like a good call so far to me.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Seasonality

[Ali1977]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are definitely correcting the mean jet further south in the extended 

whether that translates to nw Europe sitting under an Atlantic influenced mean trough or the jet firing away to the south and drawing continental air into the systems as they approach remains the question 

the potential battleground scenario of Atlantic pushing ne against a building sceuro ridge extending nw towards Iceland gains a bit more credence today 

 

Can this block really hold on then move North?  The ENS currently coming out at 168 definately show it holding on, with a lower pressure in and around Germany which could help (Steve Murrs Navgem pic very similar).  Is something afoot, if so why and can we move towards a Scandy block much quicker than an SSW would potentially do it.  

Infact we have a few ENS now showing a proper batle ground snow event by the 30th of Jan - this is interesting.  Can't post pictures but if someone could show this  that would be good.  Looking at the ENS at 174 there are 4/5 battleground events  P10/5/18 are good examples.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Ali1977

[jvenge]

I mentioned luck earlier, but looking at the 06z, you perhaps can't help but wonder who has it in for the UK :-) Cold stops in France.

[SMU]

The better the east > west allignment of the upper cold pool out of eastern Europe at 120 means theres less of a loop required to get it towards benelux

if its NE > SW out of eastern europe then its heading towards italy before we start

Today is another example of means forecasting being a waste of time V surface obs for UK

 

s

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The better the east > west allignment of the upper cold pool out of eastern Europe at 120 means theres less of a loop required to get it towards benelux

if its NE > SW out of eastern europe then its heading towards italy before we start

Today is another example of means forecasting being a waste of time V surface obs for UK

 

s

By 240 on the ENS Steve there seems to be a v large high forming towards Northen Europe and Scandy on Many perbs - maybe we are game on for Early Feb, then any SSW effect later on will just help this stay blocked.  A way to go yet i know and we need lower pressure to form in Europe to help this establish properly..  Many showing heights heading to Easten Greenland too.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Ali1977

[frosty ground]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Can this block really hold on then move North?  The ENS currently coming out at 168 definately show it holding on, with a lower pressure in and around Germany which could help (Steve Murrs Navgem pic very similar).  Is something afoot, if so why and can we move towards a Scandy block much quicker than an SSW would potentially do it.  

Infact we have a few ENS now showing a proper batle ground snow event by the 30th of Jan - this is interesting.  Can't post pictures but if someone could show this  that would be good.  Looking at the ENS at 174 there are 4/5 battleground events  P10/5/18 are good examples.

An example of the above