Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[carinthian]

This latest chart from UKMO at 168t , North Atlantic chart not the most reassuring route to cold. All looks a bit flat and zonal with what appears a slower route to the cold scenario. GFS/ECM much more progressive in the 144t -168t period towards cold. Think there is a growing difference now between the big 3 models. Today is the day for a general concensus of where we are going, hopefully to a much colder evolution for Euroland.

 C

[feb1991blizzard]

The ECM ens look to flattern the pattern post 240.

[karlos1983]

31 minutes ago, Dennis said:

 

Any of the geekiest weather geeks care to expand on this? Cryptic messages like this really get on my goat. Can't the bloke just explain. Not referring to Dennis. 

[Dennis]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Any of the geekiest weather geeks care to expand on this? Cryptic messages like this really get on my goat. Can't the bloke just explain. Not referring to Dennis. 

I could give a little try : WAFz or poleward heat flux will be much stronger later after 9 Jan - its how to poss impact the Polar Vortex ; so then the PV could going weaker and also gives a split later in Jan 

 

That could result in more cold (maybe Western Europe too)

 

[Summer Sun]

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by Summer Sun

[snowbunting]

Just now, Dennis said:

I could give a little try : WAFz or poleward heat flux will be much stronger later after 9 Jan - its how to poss impact the Polar Vortex ; so then the PV could going weaker and also gives a split later in Jan 

 

That could result in more cold (maybe Western Europe too)

 

Thanks Dennis. Is it a bit like the the impact of a sudden stratosphetic warming event?

[karlos1983]

Thanks @Dennis 

ECM graph shows it's not looking mild in the extended with the mean at -5. So opportunities definitely exist. 

Time to sit back relax and enjoy the new year celebrations. 

Happy New Year everyone, hope you all have a good one. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[Dennis]

Just now, snowbunting said:

Thanks Dennis. Is it a bit like the the impact of a sudden stratosphetic warming event?

Yes its very complex but the heat makes a progress later for the impact 

[Purga]

Colder trending ECM ENC for DeBilt

A lot of scatter in the GFS ENS but stronger cold clusters and the mean staying on the cold side pretty much throughout.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=2&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.1257&lid=ENS&country=de&zip=&bw=True

Note that even the members that peak 'mild' do so fairly briefly and also show cold or very cold troughs.

Much to be resolved still but mild and zonal it ain't!

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by Purga

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

All in all Sidney is quite relaxed about the outlook

 

Dangerous to relax in this scenario as you never know what is lurking

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Thanks @Dennis 

ECM graph shows it's not looking mild in the extended with the mean at -5. So opportunities definitely exist. 

Time to sit back relax and enjoy the new year celebrations. 

Happy New Year everyone, hope you all have a good one. 

Quite funny reading posts about it gets a bit milder before it then goes cold again. To me it`s pretty cold now and the "milder" rise doesn`t get any higher than it is "today". Makes you wonder how cold things could actually become!

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Well that's a big change from winds coming from the NE / E. 

seems consistency is not our friend this winter. 

That's not a dig at Ian or the met o. They must be scratching heads as much as anyone. Wild goose chase springs to mind. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well that's a big change from winds coming from the NE / E. 

seems consistency is not our friend this winter

Its been like that for the last 6 weeks , the models have struggled 100% this winter. Not one signal has lasted for more than a few days

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM ens look to flattern the pattern post 240.

A change in the upper ridge placement splits the jet differently and more goes north. results in the surface ridge finding the uk its home whilst the frigid cold is pushed se  (again). given that this change in the upper ridge forcing from our sw occurs as the eps are still in high res is a concern but would want to see it repeat before calling it convincing. That overall patten of high anomolies to our north and low to our south continues. just the modelling testing the edges of the envelope. 

IDO, the epo goes back to positive on the GEFS but not the eps. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by bluearmy

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well that's a big change from winds coming from the NE / E. 

seems consistency is not our friend this winter

Maybe but the anomaly charts have never given much credence to anything from the east as an average. More like very little flow to a fairly gentle surface flow from anywhere between west round to north. Staying on the cold side over the next 2 weeks or so but any detail will be shown on the synoptic models nearer the time. No sign of any mild spell at the moment.

[johnholmes]

' heat makes a progress later for the impact '

not knocking you but I do not understand what this means. Can you explain please?

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well that's a big change from winds coming from the NE / E. 

seems consistency is not our friend this winter. 

That's not a dig at Ian or the met o. They must be scratching heads as much as anyone. Wild goose chase springs to mind. 

Yeah cold is good but not sounding good if it's deep cold and snow that you want - that makes me thinks we won't see anything to special in today's models!! 

[Scandinavian High.]

Edited December 31, 2016 by abbie123

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Its been like that for the last 6 weeks , the models have struggled 100% this winter. Not one signal has lasted for more than a few days

I've been thinking that for last couple of weeks. It's been going on since mid-Nov (6 weeks now). 

The irony is...when i look back over that 6 week period it has been mainly benign with temps around average and a little below at times, mainly dry and only odd day of rain. In broad brush terms not much change in the actual weather.

And looking forward it dont seem to be changing that much - broad brush.

[IDO]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A change in the upper ridge placement splits the jet differently and more goes north. results in the surface ridge finding the uk its home whilst the frigid cold is pushed se  (again). given that this change in the upper ridge forcing from our sw occurs as the eps are still in high res is a concern but would want to see it repeat before calling it convincing. That overall patten of high anomolies to our north and low to our south continues. just the modelling testing the edges of the envelope. 

IDO, the epo goes back to positive on the GEFS but not the eps. 

Cheers BA. I saw from Tamara that we should expect the Pacific Ridge to get some forcing  in the middle of January, so if that coincides with a displacement already in place, that will stop the lag time and keep the amplified flow to cause more damage to the trop PV and maybe some bottom up to strat blow?

[cheshire snow]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I've been thinking that for last couple of weeks. It's been going on since mid-Nov (6 weeks now). 

The irony is...when i look back over that 6 week period it has been mainly benign with temps around average and a little below at times, mainly dry and only odd day of rain. In broad brush terms not much change in the actual weather.

And looking forward it dont seem to be changing that much - broad brush.

I've been thinking that for the last two years.

C.S

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, IDO said:

Cheers BA. I saw from Tamara that we should expect the Pacific Ridge to get some forcing  in the middle of January, so if that coincides with a displacement already in place, that will stop the lag time and keep the amplified flow to cause more damage to the trop PV and maybe some bottom up to strat blow?

Joe b expects the models to keep trying to remove it and keep having to correct back for it to remain in place. be interesting to see if the GFS come back at some point today. He also has a theory on the se USA ridge which he believes is erroneous and will be replaced with a trough (at least further north if not covering Florida/Georgia/s carlolina). his theory is based on the very deep cold coming into the w of America which he believes the models are struggling to resolve in respect of how they interact with the rockies. (Creating a feedback loop which keeps the troughing too deep to the west ).

if true, that would clearly change the dynamics of any split jet off the eastern seaboard and likely the locale of the Atlantic ridging. 

[TEITS]

Have to be honest I remain completely clueless to the outlook. Will we see another N,ly i.e ECM +168. Will the low over Scandi sink further S with our HP to the W ridge further N/E than the ECM suggests?

At the moment everything from a bitterly cold E,ly to a rather boring high pressure sat over the UK is possible. The only consistent trend is high pressure which means temps could be only slightly below average or well below.

Remember due to a set up like we are seeing, sudden E,lys developing at +144 remain possbile.

Edited December 31, 2016 by TEITS

[Ali1977]

Only early but looks like the GFS is stepping back to the poorer set up for next weekends Northerly!! 

[MR EXTREMES]

90hr gfs latest looks like it could go on to develope heights into either iceland perhaps scandi with cut of low sharper to our sw steady as she goes although i dont really buy into the 6z and 18z although these would provide small extra input but any how.

but no zonal so thats a bonus might end up with pretty chilly surface high,

cold lid could last awhile.

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by MR EXTREMES