Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[bluearmy]

Time for bed but just to say that when it comes to GEFS members (control and op apart), you wouldn't consider posting the navgem or Chinese ops  at day 10+ and they run at a higher resolution to the GEFS post day 8.

Clusters and means/anomolies are all good but individual members in deep fi simply raises the expectation levels (like yesterday's 06z op did)

sorry to moan - probably over tired...............

[karlos1983]

Forecasters nightmare from D7/8 onwards 

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Time for bed but just to say that when it comes to GEFS members (control and op apart), you wouldn't consider posting the navgem or Chinese ops  at day 10+ and they run at a higher resolution to the GEFS post day 8.

Clusters and means/anomolies are all good but individual members in deep fi simply raises the expectation levels (like yesterday's 06z op did)

sorry to moan - probably over tired...............

Agreed in general but what people are evaluating is how many members (compared to recent other suites) are showing big Easterlies so as to see whether a suite is a step forwards or backwards, 1 member useless agreed, even the number currently not enough but we are looking for an increase each time so ultimately in the mid range 144-168, we can eventually get a mean of below -10!!!!  ala feb /.March 2013 and late 2010.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I understand what you intended, but it does not indicate an easterly incoming either, though I accept it can. It can mean that there is a northerly blowing down a direct hit on Holland and the low countries. I just felt your positivity could mislead the newer members here.

My guide to newbies here, who wish to find out if there is a chance of cold/snow in their locality is to view the regional forums. There's a lot of knowledgable folk in most of the threads there.

i do not want  to mislead anyone,newbies or the like,we all learn something on here everyday and i am still learning

I did save one from a couple of days ago(wished i'd saved more),there is more clustering today than two days ago,not by much but it's a step in the right direction

 

 

 

[The Eagle]

1 hour ago, Banbury said:

Easterly on its way

lol, the Beast from the Middle East...

Edited December 31, 2016 by The Eagle

[Catacol]

No change from me today. Amidst the predictable wailing and gnashing of teeth as the op runs equally predictably showed alternative paths forward, we have had some very good posts from our best posters, and to my eye all still looking good for the start of winter proper at the back end of next week. Cyclonic northerly to start, and then a range of possible angles of progress from there with regard to a strong surge of heights northwards. Frankly I'm uninterested at the moment whether these position over Greenland or Scandy or somewhere in between - whichever path is followed leads to cold, and then imbyism can take over as we start to jostle for position with regards to any incoming precipitation.

Let's try to enjoy the ride. Keep some perspective: follow ensembles... check and listen out for cluster reports and keep half an eye on any teleconnective references.

I posted last night the first opportunity for snow for western parts next week - showers off the Irish Sea on Friday morning. Uppers not quite so good on the 18z tonight but pattern is still the same for Friday. Steady as she goes...

Edited December 31, 2016 by Catacol

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Time for bed but just to say that when it comes to GEFS members (control and op apart), you wouldn't consider posting the navgem or Chinese ops  at day 10+ and they run at a higher resolution to the GEFS post day 8.

Clusters and means/anomolies are all good but individual members in deep fi simply raises the expectation levels (like yesterday's 06z op did)

sorry to moan - probably over tired...............

But don't we look for trends in FL Blue

those Scandi height's have been increasing have they not?

[nick sussex]

It really is like pulling teeth to get a decent cold solution to survive the UKs cold and snow deflector which went into overdrive and then was helped on its way by the UKMO which is always there lurking and sniggering as it turns up to tell you Santa doesn't exist. The UKMO is the worst outcome and a halfway house solution caught between a Scandi tease which has no chance of happening because the cold is already well on its way to its new home in the eastern Med and as weve seen from its T168hrs output it then goes onto deliver a flat and even more underwhelming outcome than the Santa killer!

Overall tonight's other outputs are less than convincing , the ECM painfully gets to yet more jam tomorrow and stops the Prozac hotline from becoming overwhelmed by NW members at T240hrs by trying to keep up the pretence that the UK colds shield might still suffer some damage , the GFS goes with that on its 12hrs run but sadly hits the buffers on its 18hrs run with a northerly that really is a poor excuse although this might lead to a Cobra meeting as the prospect of two hours of slush and some icy roads over the top of a hill are now what UK coldies are expected to give thanks for!

No not good enough especially after 5 weeks of tedium, coldies shouldn't be expected to have to spin this into something it's not.

Having said all this there is still the chance of something wintry appearing but really can we not have the short version rather than this long saga of War and Peace proportions.

Moan/tirade over! 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It really is like pulling teeth to get a decent cold solution to survive the UKs cold and snow deflector which went into overdrive and then was helped on its way by the UKMO which is always there lurking and sniggering as it turns up to tell you Santa doesn't exist. The UKMO is the worst outcome and a halfway house solution caught between a Scandi tease which has no chance of happening because the cold is already well on its way to its new home in the eastern Med and as weve seen from its T168hrs output it then goes onto deliver a flat and even more underwhelming outcome than the Santa killer!

Overall tonight's other outputs are less than convincing , the ECM painfully gets to yet more jam tomorrow and stops the Prozac hotline from becoming overwhelmed by NW members at T240hrs by trying to keep up the pretence that the UK colds shield might still suffer some damage , the GFS goes with that on its 12hrs run but sadly hits the buffers on its 18hrs run with a northerly that really is a poor excuse although this might lead to a Cobra meeting as the prospect of two hours of slush and some icy roads over the top of a hill are now what UK coldies are expected to give thanks for!

No not good enough especially after 5 weeks of tedium, coldies shouldn't be expected to have to spin this into something it's not.

Having said all this there is still the chance of something wintry appearing but really can we not have the short version rather than this long saga of War and Peace proportions.

Moan/tirade over! 

 

The trouble is Nick, I feel people are using that 168 hrs UKMO chart all wrong in this situation. It shows us one small snapshot of the N Atlantic and that's about it. We have no real idea what the bigger picture looks like over the Arctic, most of the USA and Scandi eastwards. We just can't glean anything from it other than that the Atlantic sector looks flat...

TBH the UKMO could easily play nice and allow the 168 hrs chart to be displayed for general public consumption on a site like Meteociel, in their format. They could also allow us the 850s too!

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed Fred. Seemingly no matter what happens early-mid term, the longer term headline is height rises to our NE. Even more pertinent is the retrogressive signal of this HP right at the end of the run- something which GP has outlined...Scandi heights to Greenland heights in the extended.

Something to keep our beady eyes on anyway.

I'm definitely of the opinion that we will have a swipe then have HP drift towards Scandi then continent as we get a stronger and more definitive NW/SE attacking trigger LP around approach of midmonth. The early onslaught was for me always a timing issue. It still may happen

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The trouble is Nick, I feel people are using that 168 hrs UKMO chart all wrong in this situation. It shows us one small snapshot of the N Atlantic and that's about it. We have no real idea what the bigger picture looks like over the Arctic, most of the USA and Scandi eastwards. We just can't glean anything from it other than that the Atlantic sector looks flat...

I've seen enough from the Atlantic picture to build up the missing bits. It sucks big time! At this point though I don't think any of the outputs have the correct solution, I'd wait till we get agreement on what those Atlantic lows do . The cleanest route to cold would have been without the phasing tragedy with the low near Greenland but that option looks off the table now so we have to embark on the more complicated and less margin for error route. 

[Catacol]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No not good enough especially after 5 weeks of tedium, coldies shouldn't be expected to have to spin this into something it's not.

 

Nick - I dont understand this comment. Nobody is spinning anything - the signs are all consistent, the ensembles are mostly pointing in the same direction, and the op runs and flapping around a bit but all ultimately pointing to a surge of heights to the north. I'm afraid we all know that weeks on end of tedium are the norm for the UK winter. Even in the heyday of the 80s the weeks of tedium and rain far outweighed the cold spots. Everyone remembers and talks of Jan 87 but in reality it was about 1 week of intense cold and that was all!!

The charts are not currently showing tedium. The current viewing is the most exciting in years. Those with a long term eye are seeing signs it could be a sustained period of interest... but that I mean 2 weeks or more.

Only one way to interpret this chart - usually a very good guide.

[Scandinavian High.]

By going what meto hav put in the further ahead outlook today and models I have seen last couple of days and today's some very cold and snowy weather is on the way not from north but from east  I doubt the meto would put that wintery update up and on there long range forecast and This evening    So  something is brewing and it's not coming from the west.

Edited December 31, 2016 by abbie123

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nick - I dont understand this comment. Nobody is spinning anything - the signs are all consistent, the ensembles are mostly pointing in the same direction, and the op runs and flapping around a bit but all ultimately pointing to a surge of heights to the north. I'm afraid we all know that weeks on end of tedium are the norm for the UK winter. Even in the heyday of the 80s the weeks of tedium and rain far outweighed the cold spots. Everyone remembers and talks of Jan 87 but in reality it was about 1 week of intense cold and that was all!!

The charts are not currently showing tedium. The current viewing is the most exciting in years. Those with a long term eye are seeing signs it could be a sustained period of interest... but that I mean 2 weeks or more.

Only one way to interpret this chart - usually a very good guide.

What I'm getting at is we shouldn't have lowered our expectations so much that we have to big up a brief northerly. The anomaly charts don't show the crucial detail that's so important for the UK, yes higher than normal heights might occur to the north but that could still mean just weaker low pressure, the strongest anomaly is in the Pacific .Given the higher res ops can barely cope with the Atlantic lows and their impact on things then I wouldn't have too much faith in the lower res ensembles. At this point I think we have to wait and see because there's still a lot of uncertainty before T144hrs. A long term signal isn't immune from earlier changes,  personally at this point I'm not interested in dry and cold conditions. Winter is ticking away and most of the UK hasn't seen any snow, the majority of members want to see some snow and that's what I'll be concentrating on. Cold and dry conditions are okay if they come after it's snowed to help preserve that! 

[Mucka]

Marginal improvement on UKMO at T96 with GFS on the right. Clearly the output is beginning to converge, but small differences in such a complex pattern can have big impacts on our weather type only a few days down the line.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

I'm here mate -

To say its complicated would be an understatement!!

I'm afraid its above my pay grade to second guess the output so far...

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm here mate -

To say its complicated would be an understatement!!

I'm afraid its above my pay grade to second guess the output so far...

I wouldn't want to second guess where the GFS is headed days 5/6, that's for sure 

The Atlantic sector is a bit of an enigma there if truth be told.

I would say, however, the UKMO is going to be pretty blocked at 144. A fair bit of amplification on offer there

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I wouldn't want to second guess where the GFS is headed days 5/6, that's for sure 

The Atlantic sector is a bit of an enigma there if truth be told.

Aye, UKMO looks bleak though...

It wants to relocate the Polar vortex back to you know where...

Edited December 31, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm here mate -

To say its complicated would be an understatement!!

I'm afraid its above my pay grade to second guess the output so far...

Yeah forecasters nightmare with run to run variability at just T96 when those changes can have such a big impact on the weather we actually get.

I said marginal improvement on UKMO 96h but it didn't turn out that way as the low to our South still phased with the trough and upstream is fast n flat so not a pretty 144 for coldies

 

GFS better but those heights to our S are a real pain and just won't give it up.

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, UKMO looks bleak though...

It's not great at day 6, but could be a lot worse. Surface heights evident over Scandi...touch and go as to whether we can get something from there further down the line...

You have to say, whilst the other models are flipping from scenario to the next, the UKMO has remained as steady as a rock....worrying.

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's not great at day 6, but could be a lot worse. Surface heights evident over Scandi...touch and go as to whether we can get something from there further down the line...

Yeah at a pinch the trough could disrupt SE but I'd rather not get the straws out just yet.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah at a pinch the trough could disrupt SE but I'd rather not got get the straws out just yet.

Well I did say touch and go...

At least the door isn't locked!

Meanwhile...the GFS shows a less stressful route

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

GFS 168 getting there and looking good, but it's areal struggle to draw in cold uppers and lower pressure to our S,

[northwestsnow]

Have a good day lads, lets keep our toes crossed for upgrades.

On closer inspection on wz UKMO is not as bad as i first feared.

But still blinking complex !!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Have a good day lads, lets keep our toes crossed for upgrades.

On closer inspection on wz UKMO is not as bad as i first feared.

But still blinking complex !!

 

Yes, and look Pacific side- highly amplified which should promote further waves of amplification further down the line (it's actually aligned to place a better hit on the vortex than the GFS)...even if it is in 2 weeks time when we reap any benefits!

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold