Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Allseasons-Si]

i like the look of those thank you,a marked drop off from the 8th

[damianslaw]

Alot of inter run variability from the models today - perhaps to be expected, as they are prone to wider margins of error when we are not under the default westerly regime, so to be expected.

Reliable timeframe is quite short at the moment 96hrs tops. A weak ineffectual atlantic contines to be the form horse, even if the block settles over the country, upstream developments seem ripe for it to advance towards scandi in time - a predominantly cold outlook thus on the cards.

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

i like the look of those thank you,a marked drop off from the 8th

All the cold cluster are easterlies for De Bilt.Cant wait for the 00z runs..* stretches and limbers up..

[festivalking]

33 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Those looking for snow within the next few days, there is some hope for the night of New Years Day, the colder uppers edge their way in a little quicker and the front seems to slow its why southwards.

Not sure about that snow chart. Met office app suggesting rain and wet snow at a push for the top of the moors lower down cold rain.

[Zakos]

 

All of these anomalies are from a single run, the 18z GFS.

Absolutely stunning,The potential from these runs is fantastic.

Blocked, Cold/very cold and potentially snowy conditions look likely to persist into the foreseeable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Zakos

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, festivalking said:

Not sure about that snow chart. Met office app suggesting rain and wet snow at a push for the top of the moors lower down cold rain.

Yeah GFS always overplays the possibility of snow, we can always hope!

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All the cold cluster are easterlies for De Bilt.Cant wait for the 00z runs..* stretches and limbers up..

There has been more clustering in that graph(black circle) than the past few days

 

[Rocheydub]

5 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

All of these anomalies are from a single run, the 18z GFS.

Absolutely stunning,The potential from these runs is fantastic.

 

 

 

Indeed it is, but only one in the reliable time frame.

Look, I love cold and snowy weather, as much as anyone here, but I'm a realist. This is a major step back from what we were expecting from the NWP today, no doubt. It can change, and I hope it does, but the snowmageddon runs from yesterday could only go one way, sadly it did!

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Rocheydub

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There has been more clustering in that graph(black circle) than the past few days

 

But I'd say less than 0.1% of members/contributors of this forum are from there, why quote it?

 

De Bilt figures show cold creeping towards England/Scotland.... That's all!

[James (Mammatus) Wyatt]

Note the weakening of the polar vortex at the end of the 18Z GFS run

[Cheshire Freeze]

The 18z mean at 200+ is more amplified than the 12z suite. Could be some very good perts going forward...

[Snowman.]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The 18z mean at 200+ is more amplified than the 12z suite. Could be some very good perts going forward...

Building heights NE is looking good right now. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The mean at 192 suggests to me that an easterly is forming

control at 240

Edited December 30, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[booferking]

The control goes out of control..

[Zakos]

Just now, Rocheydub said:

Indeed it is, but only one in the reliable time frame.

Look, I love cold and snowy weather, as much as anyone here, but I'm a realist. This is a major step back from what we were expecting from the NWP today, no doubt. It can change, and I hope it does, but the snowmageddon runs from yesterday could only go one way, sadly it did!

Not sure I agree with that. Its not a step back in my opinion, more of a cha cha.

The snowmageddon charts from yesterdays 06z are still perfectly plausible.

Todays 12 and 18z above. What I believe we are lacking on these runs is the deep low heights over europe to drag bitter cold air over the UK.

The core of the Block is still in roughly the same place as yesterday.

To say "it can only go one way" is too pessimistic in my opinion. At that range, who can say it will not swing back the other way i.e towards a cold and snowy pattern?

 

[Purga]

The short GEFS still looking good even at this stage with some very tasty perts evident

Of course, just for balance we have the odd spoiler

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=2&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.1257&lid=ENS&country=de&zip=&bw=true

But most of the clustering is on the cold side and the mean stays resolutely cold after D8

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Purga

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Todays 12 and 18z above. What I believe we are lacking on these runs is the deep low heights over europe to drag bitter cold air over the UK.

 

You rarely see deep lows around the Mediterranean anyway.  I feel that's a strong enough anomaly.

Edited December 30, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[SMU]

The ENS are split into 3 @ 192 onwards ( 1 showing a 4th )

* cluster 1 - very good elevation on the high leading to deep cold from the east

4,17,20 are the best

* high pressure to the north quickly toppling to a UK high post day 9

* cyclonic atlantic low pressure diving SE towards the block through days 8-10

so all 3 solutions are cold bit only the top one at this stage represents cold & snow/

The mean is pretty meaningless...

ciao

S

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

But I'd say less than 0.1% of members/contributors of this forum are from there, why quote it?

 

De Bilt figures show cold creeping towards England/Scotland.... That's all!

Hi Roochydub

sorry if i wasn't clear about my post,we are trying to determine (in those clusters)if there is a possibility of an easterly source in the latter stages of the recent runs,more clusters in that black circle the better,hope that helps

[Eskimo]

As mentioned, 2m temps for London on the way down with the strongest cluster below the mean! 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The ENS are split into 3 @ 192 onwards ( 1 showing a 4th )

* cluster 1 - very good elevation on the high leading to deep cold from the east

4,17,20 are the best

* high pressure to the north quickly toppling to a UK high post day 9

* cyclonic atlantic low pressure diving SE towards the block through days 8-10

so all 3 solutions are cold bit only the top one at this stage represents cold & snow/

The mean is pretty meaningless...

ciao

S

P2 is an absolute snorter.

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The ENS are split into 3 @ 192 onwards ( 1 showing a 4th )

* cluster 1 - very good elevation on the high leading to deep cold from the east

4,17,20 are the best

* high pressure to the north quickly toppling to a UK high post day 9

* cyclonic atlantic low pressure diving SE towards the block through days 8-10

so all 3 solutions are cold bit only the top one at this stage represents cold & snow/

The mean is pretty meaningless...

ciao

S

Don't forget P14 Steve, as Frank Carson used to say 'It's a cracker'! (showing my age...)

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi Roochydub

sorry if i wasn't clear about my post,we are trying to determine (in those clusters)if there is a possibility of an easterly source in the latter stages of the recent runs,more clusters in that black circle the better,hope that helps

I understand what you intended, but it does not indicate an easterly incoming either, though I accept it can. It can mean that there is a northerly blowing down a direct hit on Holland and the low countries. I just felt your positivity could mislead the newer members here.

My guide to newbies here, who wish to find out if there is a chance of cold/snow in their locality is to view the regional forums. There's a lot of knowledgable folk in most of the threads there.

[Jimmyh]

Hi guys these charts are utter porn in the sense of cold and snowy weather. They are dreamland productions that if they come off then everyone will be happy. One thing that does annoy me is the comments of downgrades and not as good as last runetc. If you take each run and over analyse it then we are for a lot of pain. Just think back 12 months..... where were we just come out of a mild Xmas and no sign of anything like we have been promised now. I am glad that we can cut the wheat from the chaff and get experienced posters explaining wits happening. They know who they are. Thanks to them for making the inexperienced people understand utilise  little better. On the subject of the upcoming cold spells the cold is here now as happened in Dec 10 get cold here and prolong it then it's game on. Enjoy what we get but the beauty of this year no Atlantic breakthrough 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

P2 is an absolute snorter.

Control aint too shabby either