Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

Morning

no resolution to anything this morning - UKMO still left of the low GFS still right

UKMO 144 still firing up jet & saying goodbye to the cold - GFS not much better with the deep cold now fading to the east-

not really much positive vibes for the day- 

S

[Mucka]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Morning

no resolution to anything this morning - UKMO still left of the low GFS still right

UKMO 144 still firing up jet & saying goodbye to the cold - GFS not much better with the deep cold now fading to the east-

not really much positive vibes for the day- 

S

I'm not waving the white flag yet but it is beginning to look like we will have to look to FI again. At least GFS keeping the faith with blocking there with the slowest of slow, slow burners...

[Whether Idle]

GFS going to be good in FI as southern arm of the jet digs south and energy goes under UK high@ 252

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

no resolution to anything this morning - UKMO still left of the low GFS still right

UKMO 144 still firing up jet & saying goodbye to the cold - GFS not much better with the deep cold now fading to the east-

not really much positive vibes for the day- 

S

It was obvious the GFS was going to go on to be a stunner. Forget the near term as I think it might be a bust...I'm intrigued by the continued E'ly signal day 10 and on

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I'm not waving the white flag yet but it is beginning to look like we will have to look to FI again. At least GFS keeping the faith with blocking there with the slowest of slow, slow burners...

GFS cold at day 12 which of course All of us would take however no point in even worrying about that if UKMO correct --

at least its nice to look at---

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS cold at day 12 which of course All of us would take however no point in even worrying about that if UKMO correct --

at least its nice to look at---

The UKMO isn't even that bad TBH Steve. Plenty of opportunity down the line I think. Only goes to day 6 and as I say, it looks promising Pacific side regardless of the Atlantic sector at that time.

Plenty of snow for your back yard further into FI 

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS FI

CFS for Jan

The continuity there is pretty striking

To get 2 different models throwing out the EXACT same scenario at that range is noteworthy

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Given all we have been through this winter already GFS is basically trolling and torturing us with its deep FI Beasterly.

At least UKMO just punches our lights out and leaves.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Given all we have been through this winter already GFS is basically trolling and torturing us with its deep FI Beasterly.

At least UKMO just punches our lights out and leaves.

 

It's the UKMO versus ECM. GFS, GEFS, EPS, CFS and other long range forecasting tools. If it is correct then crown it champ there and then.

IF (a big if) the ECM throws out an E'ly towards the end of the run then I'm happy enough that it is a scenario which is relatively likely going forward.

Edited December 31, 2016 by CreweCold

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I'm not waving the white flag yet but it is beginning to look like we will have to look to FI again. At least GFS keeping the faith with blocking there with the slowest of slow, slow burners...

I really do think it's all still to play I'm still very upbeat about model updates coming up been a strange few days really to be honest I still think  an easterly is on the cards remember 0600z few days ago can never be forgotten watch this space if I'm wrong slate me but I can take it been up all night waiting for 06z happy new year 

 

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's the UKMO versus ECM. GFS, GFS, EPS, CFS and other long range forecasting tools. If it is correct then crown it champ there and then.

I won't be crowing anyone champ until we know in this set up. Said it many times already, but so many interdependent moving parts it makes my brain hurt and that's just out to T96! 

It is till up for grabs no doubt about that.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I won't be crowing anyone champ until we know in this set up. Said it many times already, but so many interdependent moving parts it makes my brain hurt and that's just out to T96! 

It is till up for grabs no doubt about that.

Oh yes nothing for certain in this ring island

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I won't be crowing anyone champ until we know in this set up. Said it many times already, but so many interdependent moving parts it makes my brain hurt and that's just out to T96! 

It is till up for grabs no doubt about that.

GEFS sharpen up the Pacific ridge as per UKMO and vs the operational

[Polar Maritime]

A pure Easterly showing into the depths of the GFS.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

A pure Easterly showing into the depths of the GFS.

 

 

Yes and even by 180 hrs you can see from the GEFS ensemble mean that heights begin to form over the top of the troughing into Scandi

[Mucka]

Now here is funny thing that may sneak up  on us. While we have all been concentrating on our initial Northerly and then a 2nd Northerly around the 6th and thereafter on amplification and a possible FI Easterly, GFS has quietly been bringing another potential Northerly into play at just 96h. Chances are it will be a little too far East but it has been slowly backed West on GFS.

Take p20 as an example.

Not sue how much ppn would be possible with high so close but the East might have an outside chance of seeing some unexpected snow falling.

 

Meanwhile plenty of cold options withing GFS ensembles and very few going for anything as flat as UKMO upstream at 144.

I wonder how long this divergence can go on for?

Where is Fergie? Has he run to his nuclear bunker to avoid the fallout?

Edited December 31, 2016 by Mucka

[knocker]

Taking the weekend first

The cold front will travel down the country overnight bringing some quite heavy rain in places with some snow on the hills. The front will clear the south tomorrow morning and by Monday all of the UK is in much cooler air.

Given that there is little change in the overall pattern this is just the Morning's take on the evolution within it. Well my take on the take.

The introduction of the colder air next week is accompanied by the resurgence of the HP in the west which in turn comes under attack from the energy pouring forth upstream . Much of this runs around the north of the high pressure compressing it in the process whilst the rest tracks south around the perennial upper low. It is the ever changing proportion of this energy split as new waves emerge from upstream that is dictating the evolution next weekend

This is quite well illustrated on this morning's run as the trough running around to the north of the HP is forced further east because the high cell is also forced east by the energy tracking south and the continuous feed to the low pressure to the south west of the UK. It is a fine balance and minor adjustments will make big differences and will continue to do

So a quick summation. High pressure dominates in the reasonable time frame so cool and dry with a brief unsettled interlude next weekend as the trough tracks down to the east thus veering and strengthening the surface wind

Edited December 31, 2016 by knocker

[Mucka]

Short ensembles. Quite a bit of scatteer beginning at just 96h

[northwestsnow]

While im not that keen on the ukm0144 imho it has improved a little in the 96-120 timeframe.

Its a really complex set up and i really think that UK coldies (long suffering ones at that), are due a change of fortunes.

What i dont really want to see is ECM looking anything like the ukmo144..

Edited December 31, 2016 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

51 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

no resolution to anything this morning - UKMO still left of the low GFS still right

UKMO 144 still firing up jet & saying goodbye to the cold - GFS not much better with the deep cold now fading to the east-

not really much positive vibes for the day- 

S

Chin up Steve we are in your corner

Hopefully the ecm will pull a rabbit out of the hat but your 'slayer' tag for the UKMO is looking spot on, i can think of a few other descriptions for the UKMO but i would probably breach the swear filter!!

[joggs]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

It was obvious the GFS was going to go on to be a stunner. Forget the near term as I think it might be a bust...I'm intrigued by the continued E'ly signal day 10 and on

I always read the mo updates before viewing this thread,saves so much spent energy lol.

[snowangel32]

You can really see the models are having a nightmare with that low forming in iberia I think that's the crucial part but even when it's going tits up it always seems the route eventually is to cold, wether it be from a Scandi or Greenland high. There's no doubt in my mind at some point in January we will see an easterly the trend is still there. Patience will be rewarded but my God it's never simple for the UK. And the long range tools and forecasts seem to have no clue either. 

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

no resolution to anything this morning - UKMO still left of the low GFS still right

UKMO 144 still firing up jet & saying goodbye to the cold - GFS not much better with the deep cold now fading to the east-

not really much positive vibes for the day- 

S

What? How can you say cold is fading to the east? Animation of 850s 96-192 then 192 onwards. Decent on the continent are they not? Then 00z ended with an easterly. What run were you looking at?

Edited December 31, 2016 by Seasonality

[Iceberg]

Models are still picking up and showing tbh whatever they want in the t144-168 range. 

However both ecm and gfs are still cold to profoundly cold. 

Latest ens table 

 

[Iceberg]

I think folks need to remember that the models are still showing freezing bloody cold. 

850s of -7 to -10 on the ecm coming out now.