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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well at 114 the scandy high is a LOT further south..

It is and initially it's not looking as good, however not sure how the WAA will link with the high as this is coming in on a higher trajectory so may be a good thing.

Edited by Ali1977
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

GFS T114 very similar to this morning's ECM T120 - which is not a bad thing, at least at this stage in the run. Cold pool affecting UK, Azores High headed for Iceland, Scandi High sinking just a tiny amount.

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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well at 114 the scandy high is a LOT further south..

Come on man stop over doing things, yes its sunk south but its not that bad. 

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Short range upgrades are what we want to see and we are getting them on the Gfs 12z..more chance of snow and even colder air!:cold:

 

11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Feel like there's going to be some unhappy people about this run! Lots of energy spilling over the top of the Azores ridging which itself is a lot more prominent than the 06z

What's going on fellas????? Surely it would be better to wait until the run has had chance to get to a decent time period - this isn't helping,

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Come on man stop over doing things, yes its sunk south but its not that bad. 

Im not overdoing anything? Just saying the high is much further south, which it is..

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Any confusion is probably down to people talking about different aspects of the output. The initial placement and orientation of the Scandi high and the Atlantic troughs interaction with the Azores high and block from around T96.

Edited by Mucka
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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Im not overdoing anything? Just saying the high is much further south, which it is..

Any chance of somebody posting the actual chart so we can judge for ourselves?!  :cc_confused:

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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Im not overdoing anything? Just saying the high is much further south, which it is..

Yes but the language is what annoyed me, but anyway pointless argument. The block is again showing signs of retrogressing west.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, MattTarrant said:

Yes but the language is what annoyed me, but anyway pointless argument. The block is again showing signs of retrogressing west.

No worries.:)

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Ignoring comparisons between earlier runs, out to 138 and things are looking very good.  A decent snow event for many is showing for Sunday. This is all in the reliable/semi reliable.

5898a23b0b759_gfsnh-0-138-Copy.thumb.png.2eff8282abbbad2df00a82fd9d9e52a7.png5898a23e14211_gfs-2-138-Copy.thumb.png.16812601258fbc8f6c9f15b794511a97.png

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

UKMO slightly better than GFS 120 (Atlantic sector)

UN120-21.GIFgfsnh-0-120.png

and 144 brrrr

UN144-21.GIF?06-17

Edited by Mucka
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Ignoring comparisons between earlier runs, out to 138 and things are looking very good.  A decent snow event for many is showing for Sunday. This is all in the reliable/semi reliable.

5898a23b0b759_gfsnh-0-138-Copy.thumb.png.2eff8282abbbad2df00a82fd9d9e52a7.png5898a23e14211_gfs-2-138-Copy.thumb.png.16812601258fbc8f6c9f15b794511a97.png

Nowhere near semi-reliable when it comes to precipitation.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

UKMO for 144 is looking pretty damn good as well, very similar to the GFS.  The run is a little different but still very good IMO.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.e14d262894df05d3634101b72699f3f7.gif

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO slightly better than GFS 120

UN120-21.GIFgfsnh-0-120.png

I think if its snow your after the GFS is the better chart there. Lower heights towards the south and tighter squeeze on the isobars.

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Most would be happy with this at the weekend. As expected the warm sector is getting warmer and the whole lot is moving south a bit. 

I think this run will be pretty accurate tbh. 

IMG_0751.GIF

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Nowhere near semi-reliable when it comes to precipitation.

Especially given the changes we've seen earlier in this run. I've seen enough anyway, fair to good continuity between the 06z and the 12z, I was worried to begin with as the northern arm was stronger and more energy was going over the top but we've ended up in a similar setup at 144.

Lack of very cold uppers is a concern although as long as the flow is contintental we should be able to get away with 'warmer' uppers

edit: Just For fun we end up in southerlies sourced from the Sahara at 180 ::rofl:

Edited by Weathizard
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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

UKMO looks more amplified to our north:)

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.f2e2d655a5c92f7faeda35c77a2c10c9.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.bad1814784884f9ab6ffa85bf4366440.gif

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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted (edited)

The positioning of high by 162 wasn't far different to the 6z albeit perhaps 100 miles further south. 

Also note by 168 there is massive surge of WAA into northern Scandinavia, Mucka what could this do? 

Scandi.PNG

WAA.PNG

Edited by MattTarrant
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