North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[raul_sbd]

19 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

What time and channel is the country life forecast in BBc?

Anyone?

[weatherobsuk]

20 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

What time and channel is the country life forecast in BBc?

6:20pm this evening on BBC1, the forecast for the week ahead is usually 3/4 the way through the program.

Edited December 3, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[chiffer]

I'm liking the Meto's extended outlook it's been a long while since they were confident enough to think that cold will dominate and mild weather will be in brief interludes.

[cheshire snow]

23 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

Anyone?

About 19.10

BTW the 12z is a snow fest for the region.

C.S. 

[Daniel*]

Cheshire Gap. Snow machine anyone?

 

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Cheshire Gap. Snow machine anyone?

 

Please do not get my hopes up Daniel 

C.S

[Iceaxecrampon]

FESTIVE SLEET

[Mokidugway]

It's been pretty consistent the Cheshire snow dumper possibly running all the way to the poncy Home Counties 

[Chris.R]

Not bad; not bad at all. 

“

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017:

The UK will be subject to a cold arctic airflow by Friday, bringing plenty of sunny spells but also some hail and snow showers. Any wintry showers will be most likely over northern facing hills in Scotland, Wales and the southwest, but at times becoming widespread. Strong winds will affect all regions, with gales in exposed coasts in the north; feeling very cold in the wind. We will also see a widespread increase in overnight frost and ice. This cold and windy weather is likely to stay in place for a time, perhaps with some brief milder interludes in the south, with frontal systems bringing a mix of rain sleet and snow. There are signs that slower-moving, blocked weather patterns will return with more settled but still cold weather dominating.

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence as to which weather pattern will dominate in the second half of December, however a theme of more slowly evolving weather looks the most likely. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods and shorter lived milder, wetter, windier interludes. Snow is likely at times especially in more northern and central areas.

Updated: 14:45 on Sun 3 Dec 2017 GMT“

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Id be buzzing if i lived in the cheshire area.

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Please do not get my hopes up Daniel 

C.S

Live a little CS 

I’m not one to use the word cacked but some of you folk are going to be cacked in the white stuff. 

I always look to your region as the showers tend to find themselves towards the London area. 

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Daniel*

[cheshire snow]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Live a little CS 

I’m not one to use the word cacked but some of you folk are going to be cacked in the white stuff. 

I always look to your region as the showers tend to find themselves towards the London area. 

 

To many let downs like everyone else.

We will see.

C.S

[northwestsnow]

South of the region looks primed thur/fri... think the winds will be too NW for my locale and the showers will miss to my south- need WNW IMBY.

Crewe cold etc could get pummelled.

bbc raw looks crap still, 8deg thur and rain, at 300m ...

after that, dry but cold.

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Chris.R]

Still not sure it’s going to be enough for me. Need another 17th of December 2010 set up for anything from an NW flow here. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Chris.R

[Joe Bloggs]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

South of the region looks primed thur/fri... think the winds will be too NW for my locale and the showers will miss to my south- need WNW IMBY.

Crewe cold etc could get pummelled.

bbc raw looks crap still, 8deg thur and rain, at 300m ...

after that, dry but cold.

Hello mate. It has been a while but I have been stalking this place non stop. ?

Don’t pay ANY attention to the MetO raw data. It is notoriously bad at picking up convective precipitation more than 48 hours ahead. Once you get within 2 days and the hour by hour forecasts come in I’m sure you’ll see some heavy snow symbols. 

For our region the general rule for snow showers is.. 

WSW’ly - Cumbria & North Lancs

direct w’ly - Lancashire

WNW’ly - Greater Manchester, North Cheshire, Peak District

NW’ly - Wirral, Merseyside, West Cheshire

NNW’ly - stronger focus on Wales

With uppers approaching -10C precipitation should mainly be of snow. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Joe Bloggs

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Hello mate. It has been a while but I have been stalking this place non stop. ?

Don’t pay ANY attention to the MetO raw data. It is notoriously bad at picking up convective precipitation more than 48 hours ahead. Once you get within 2 days and the hour by hour forecasts come in I’m sure you’ll see some heavy snow symbols. 

For our region the general rule for snow showers is.. 

WSW’ly - Cumbria & North Lancs

direct w’ly - Lancashire

WNW’ly - Greater Manchester, North Cheshire, Peak District

NW’ly - Wirral, Merseyside, West Cheshire

NNW’ly - stronger focus on Wales

With uppers approaching -10C precipitation should mainly be of snow. 

Hi joe

Yes agree with pretty much all that- our locale needs WNW - which the winds will likely be initially through thur- but its probably too marginal before thur night..

Hills should do well as we go through thur..

PS the text is also underwhelming - hope that upgrades tomorrow -

 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hi joe

Yes agree with pretty much all that- our locale needs WNW - which the winds will likely be initially through thur- but its probably too marginal before thur night..

Hills should do well as we go through thur..

PS the text is also underwhelming - hope that upgrades tomorrow -

 

Looks pretty good for our patch Thursday night into Friday morning. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_2.png

As it stands that WNW’ly tilt is pretty much perfect for the G Manchester area. 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Looks pretty good for our patch Thursday night into Friday morning. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_2.png

As it stands that WNW’ly tilt is pretty much perfect for the G Manchester area. 

Yes the charts look better then meto app/ meto text/ and national forecasts which are mentioning scotland NI/Wales as prme spots- suggestive of a more N/NNW wind direction...

Fingers crossed thou Joe- im not greedy, 2 or 3 cm would be perfect for me

All that said, i'm pretty sure a NW wind ha delivered here in the past- hopefully there will be a lively irish sea and the snow showers will be widespread....

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Winter Hill]

Agree with the winds being WNW. a NNW will see the shower skirt to the south of me. I can see the shower hitting the South Manchester & Stockport areas.

Frustrating to say the least.

[Joe Bloggs]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes the charts look better then meto app/ meto text/ and national forecasts which are mentioning scotland NI/Wales as prme spots- suggestive of a more N/NNW wind direction...

Fingers crossed thou Joe- im not greedy, 2 or 3 cm would be perfect for me

All that said, i'm pretty sure a NW wind ha delivered here in the past- hopefully there will be a lively irish sea and the snow showers will be widespread....

Absolutely right. If I remember correctly Christmas Day 2004 delivered to most of the region.

If the snow showers are widespread then just about anywhere could get lucky. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Absolutely right. If I remember correctly Christmas Day 2004 delivered to most of the region.

If the snow showers are widespread then just about anywhere could get lucky. 

Yes it did joe- remember snow showers here through the afternoon i think it was.

Either way, i hope we all get a decent shot, like i said, i would be happy with a couple of cm, that should stay on the ground for a coupe of days..very festive for second week of Dec..

Edited December 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Not expecting much here, would be surprised if we got 1cm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

South of the region looks primed thur/fri... think the winds will be too NW for my locale and the showers will miss to my south- need WNW IMBY.

Crewe cold etc could get pummelled.

bbc raw looks crap still, 8deg thur and rain, at 300m ...

after that, dry but cold.

my location used to do very well of this setup, not had a good Cheshire Gap dump for years, the good old winters

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Hello mate. It has been a while but I have been stalking this place non stop. ?

Don’t pay ANY attention to the MetO raw data. It is notoriously bad at picking up convective precipitation more than 48 hours ahead. Once you get within 2 days and the hour by hour forecasts come in I’m sure you’ll see some heavy snow symbols. 

For our region the general rule for snow showers is.. 

WSW’ly - Cumbria & North Lancs

direct w’ly - Lancashire

WNW’ly - Greater Manchester, North Cheshire, Peak District

NW’ly - Wirral, Merseyside, West Cheshire

NNW’ly - stronger focus on Wales

With uppers approaching -10C precipitation should mainly be of snow. 

agree with that, mine tends to direct NW, Stockport has dumps off WNW

[Mokidugway]

An old guy told me that in ulverston 1947 there was 30 inches of snow on the ground .