North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Mokidugway]

Just now, pip22 said:

Looking at that chart and I'm going to Tenerife next week makes me feel regret and jealous. If that verifies then I will never going abroad in Winter ever again!!

I'll take Tenerife over snow any day ,lol you watch there will be big dump here when I'm in South America in January.

[WillinGlossop]

32 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Looking at that chart and I'm going to Tenerife next week makes me feel regret and jealous. If that verifies then I will never going abroad in Winter ever again!!

Thats sods law for me.

Same as my thinking but it’ll probably happen differently than progged and you can’t predict the future.... not accurately anyway....

[Joe Bloggs]

a NW’ly correction on the 18z GFS. Better for western parts of the region http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png

 

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

a NW’ly correction on the 18z GFS. Better for western parts of the region http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png

 

That's as good as it gets hops sst,s are cold enough 

[Spah1]

Those with more knowledge than me, how do you describe this?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'd like to see the GFS back the winds just a smidgen more west of north for optimal conditions on Friday. As it stands, most of the shower activity on Friday will be heading down through the Wirral into N&W Shrops.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I'd like to see the GFS back the winds just a smidgen more west of north for optimal conditions on Friday. As it stands, most of the shower activity on Friday will be heading down through the Wirral into N&W Shrops.

Not optimal for me Aaron 

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'd like to see the GFS back the winds just a smidgen more west of north for optimal conditions on Friday. As it stands, most of the shower activity on Friday will be heading down through the Wirral into N&W Shrops.

Noooooo. Please catch Lancashire!

[Joe Bloggs]

Absolutely just for fun.. and a massive ramp.

18z GFS is picking up on the potential for a snow streamer, reminds me of 4th Jan 2010.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_75_4.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_78_43.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_81_43.png

Yes the dew points look dodgy and it’ll change on the next run but it goes to show what is possible. ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd like to see the GFS back the winds just a smidgen more west of north for optimal conditions on Friday. As it stands, most of the shower activity on Friday will be heading down through the Wirral into N&W Shrops.

Staffs too?

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd like to see the GFS back the winds just a smidgen more west of north for optimal conditions on Friday. As it stands, most of the shower activity on Friday will be heading down through the Wirral into N&W Shrops.

I agree. We want to see more westerly corrections. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Noooooo. Please catch Lancashire!

Unforrunately anywhere north of manchester looks like missing out..as it stands.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Unforrunately anywhere north of manchester looks like missing out..as it stands.

Unless a trough forms 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Not liking the look of the ppn charts at all, i think they'll be near the mark too, no snow for cumbria

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Not liking the look of the ppn charts at all, i think they'll be near the mark too, no snow for cumbria

Nope 

[Spah1]

So what can we wish for that will turn the winds a little more Westwards ????

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Nope 

Reminds me of 2010! nearly 1ft and thundersnow in st helens was it? yet 1cm here. absolute joke.

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Reminds me of 2010! nearly 1ft and thundersnow in st helens was it? yet 1cm here. absolute joke.

Lol ,but Monday and Tuesday look promising 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mokidugway

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Lol ,but Monday and Tuesday look promising 

It does but it'll end up not getting any further north than Cheshire i bet.

[northwestsnow]

Cumbria really really sucks for snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

So what can we wish for that will turn the winds a little more Westwards ????

Just got to wish for more of an ECM type scenario

Even that isn't great for much of the region bar Cheshire but the winds are further towards the W than the GFS. As it stands, the trough that the GFS 18z shows pushing through Thursday evening, sits in -4 upper air...which obviously isn't good enough for areas under about 150m (i.e much of lowland NW England). Though I suspect there would be a period of back edge snow.

Friday is the main day and we need to see those winds back a tad more to the west so that more people, other than the wirral folk, can enjoy some heavy snow showers.

There is a real risk that some of the region could stay bone dry throughout this upcoming spell.

Edited December 4, 2017 by CreweCold

[Joe Bloggs]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unforrunately anywhere north of manchester looks like missing out..as it stands.

Hello mate. Just to let you know your precious MetO app is picking up on heavy snow for Sunday! (Oldham area) ❄️?

[cheshire snow]

Has to be the best wind direction from an IMBY view,apart from breakdown snow

Nothing else cuts it here,still on the fence though another 24hrs and my interest 

Will start to increase

C.S

[Spah1]

"The arctic blast from Friday seems to be taking on an increasingly NWly wind direction compared to previous more  runs, so looks like western coastal areas most prone to frequent snow showers Friday and Saturday, with snow showers getting through the Cheshire Gap to the Midlands too. Though by Sunday showers tending to die out in the west and confined to eastern coasts"

from Mod thread.

[Joe Bloggs]

I agree that the trend tonight is for the flow to go more NW’ly. As it stands I think west Cheshire, maybe Merseyside look best placed. There is absolutely time for this to change though.

For the Manchester area you want a flow like this - this was an excellent snow streamer. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2015/cfsr/CFSR_1_2015012912_1.png

Just north of west. 

We’ll see.