North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If that EC at 96 brings nothing here its time for me to find another interest.

Again I’m overanalysing, but remember that horrendous weekend recently when it rained on and off all weekend with frequent heavy showers? You had a bit of snow. This was the setup:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2017/cfsr/CFSR_1_2017112512_1.png

Yes there was a westerly element but not much more so than is forecast for the end of the week.

I think things currently look very good, admittedly more for the south of the region than the north. Next few runs will be crucial, what we don’t want is a NNW’ly - of course some members would prefer a correction in that direction! 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Again I’m overanalysing, but remember that horrendous weekend recently when it rained on and off all weekend with frequent heavy showers? You had a bit of snow. This was the setup:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2017/cfsr/CFSR_1_2017112512_1.png

Yes there was a westerly element but not much more so than is forecast for the end of the week.

I think things currently look very good, admittedly more for the south of the region than the north. Next few runs will be crucial, what we don’t want is a NNW’ly - of course some members would prefer a correction in that direction! 

Im sure we will be watching things very closely !

FWIW i also think EC will correct westwards with the low on sunday leaving us on the cold side of the jet.

[iand61]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Again I’m overanalysing, but remember that horrendous weekend recently when it rained on and off all weekend with frequent heavy showers? You had a bit of snow. This was the setup:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2017/cfsr/CFSR_1_2017112512_1.png

Yes there was a westerly element but not much more so than is forecast for the end of the week.

I think things currently look very good, admittedly more for the south of the region than the north. Next few runs will be crucial, what we don’t want is a NNW’ly - of course some members would prefer a correction in that direction! 

I'd prefer a correction the other way if it's on offer, plenty of cold mixed into a straight westerly and its bingo for East Lancs but I'm not greedy and whoever gets the snow, enjoy.

still plenty of time for the unlucky ones to get another bite of the cherry

[Mokidugway]

Ian you're 3000 meters up so you might get something ,lol

[Spah1]

Hoping Chorley gets a covering. 

When will we find out if there are any troughs, not just showers?!?!

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Hoping Chorley gets a covering. 

When will we find out if there are any troughs, not just showers?!?!

 

Good question spah...usually by 48hrs the models have a good handle.

The lastest televised forecasts look pants tho...as do the bbc/meto apps...

 

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Ian you're 3000 meters up so you might get something ,lol

Knock a zero off and that's me but for some reason being sheltered by the Bowland Fells and other hills barely higher than I am means I see very little from a NW direction.

its always amazed me how mountains which wouldn't count as foothills in most countries on Earth still think they are the Andes when it comes to stopping snow in its tracks.

[Joe Bloggs]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good question spah...usually by 48hrs the models have a good handle.

The lastest televised forecasts look pants tho...as do the bbc/meto apps...

 

Omg you and those apps! ??

Ignore them until they reach the range when they forecast hour by hour. If they’re still pants then, that’s the time to be concerned. 

They do not pick up convective precipitation very well at all.. I notice this every single time we get this setup. 

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, Makemeasnowman said:

Guys and ladies pardon my ignorance. Long time follow and reader but rarely post. When your all talking about a dumping of snow etc what day are you referring to here? I'm based in Liverpool so don't expect a great deal if anything from this. But my girlfriend is over from Spain tomorrow night . We're heading to Edinburgh Wednesday and the lakes Thursday. We are back in Liverpool Friday. Just would be great for her to see some lying snow

Still a bit too early to tell, but this sure looks like Wirral's & Liverpool's best chance of snow for a few years. The pattern longer term into Winter proper also looks good in general if your a cold and snow fan.

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Knock a zero off and that's me but for some reason being sheltered by the Bowland Fells and other hills barely higher than I am means I see very little from a NW direction.

its always amazed me how mountains which wouldn't count as foothills in most countries on Earth still think they are the Andes when it comes to stopping snow in its tracks.

Lol often think that when weather fronts come in , deluge here and a glass full for the SE with no real topographic features in the way 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Lol often think that when weather fronts come in , deluge here and a glass full for the SE with no real topographic features in the way 

The Pennines are good at that, stop virtually all snow in the east from reaching our side although never seem to object when it coming from the west.

 

[Day 10]

Just now, iand61 said:

The Pennines are good at that, stop virtually all snow in the east from reaching our side although never seem to object when it coming from the west.

 

And when it's rain, it doesn't stop in any direction!

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

The Pennines are good at that, stop virtually all snow in the east from reaching our side although never seem to object when it coming from the west.

 

Great ain't it 

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Day 10 said:

And when it's rain, it doesn't stop in any direction!

Build to big a sandcastle it'll stop it ,lol

 

[username home]

what are the chances of it snowing during the big game on sunday evening??

 

[Weather-history]

33 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Again I’m overanalysing, but remember that horrendous weekend recently when it rained on and off all weekend with frequent heavy showers? You had a bit of snow. This was the setup:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2017/cfsr/CFSR_1_2017112512_1.png

Yes there was a westerly element but not much more so than is forecast for the end of the week.

I think things currently look very good, admittedly more for the south of the region than the north. Next few runs will be crucial, what we don’t want is a NNW’ly - of course some members would prefer a correction in that direction! 

Yes, that was a good convective day

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

1 hour ago, Mokidugway said:

Had west Cumbria in snow , Cumbria marra must be doing cartwheels ,lol

Havent seen it but nice to hear

[Spah1]

So this is where i’m up to with it all. 

If everything turns white for at least 12 hrs that will do me. 

If I can muster an inch i’ll be happy. 

Chorley not too bad. Far enough away from the coast but not too far East so may clip the showers trying to go through the Cheshire gap. 

Not going to be able to work productively on Friday, will be watching the radar. 

[damianslaw]

Lots of speculation in here about snow prospects later this week - but all conjecture at this range. Won't know until the time arrives in these situations, showers can never be predicted with any accuracy at any time range - at anytime of year, in the summer we say showers and expect anything fro deluge to bone dry. What we need to look out for any trough features, again these won't be picked up until Thursday. Relief plays a big part in this part of the region, we can develop homegrown showers when the warm air is forced over the lakeland fells, indeed we are entity to ourselves, even harder to predict than the rest of the region.

Would be good to see some really heavy snow showers brought on by strong winds, been a while - banding into continuous snow, a couple of inches will do, and it would stick around through the weekend to give a very seasonal feel, with hard frosts. 

Lots of time to go through yet before we know the outcome.

[WillinGlossop]

Not being bought be precipcharts but next Monday if possible yes please.... 

[Mokidugway]

Can't say I'll get anything just to far tucked in on furness peninsula though I'll get some nice cloudscapes looking out to sea .

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Not being bought be precipcharts but next Monday if possible yes please.... 

Who's charts that will 

[WillinGlossop]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Who's charts that will 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/snow-depth-in/20171213-0000z.html

[Mokidugway]

Just now, WillinGlossop said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/snow-depth-in/20171213-0000z.html

Cheers bud 

[pip22]

35 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Not being bought be precipcharts but next Monday if possible yes please.... 

Looking at that chart and I'm going to Tenerife next week makes me feel regret and jealous. If that verifies then I will never going abroad in Winter ever again!!

Thats sods law for me.

Edited December 4, 2017 by pip22