North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Ignore the raw data until 48 hours before. Like I said before,  it is crap for picking up on convective precip. Seriously if you keep checking the app it will drive you mad. 

Aye forcasting in the mesoscale  or NWP is for T 0  lol ? 

[northwestsnow]

If i were in northern wales i would be literally laughing at the moment!!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If i were in northern wales i would be literally laughing at the moment!!

Some spots there will be pushing for 20cm imo, maybe 30cm

Edited December 4, 2017 by I Cumbria Marra I

[northwestsnow]

Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Some spots there will be pushing for 20cm imo.

Yes there will be snow showers galore - 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If i were in northern wales i would be literally laughing at the moment!!

Funny Wales has done well out of this snow event even though none has fallen yet 

[Joe Bloggs]

Still a good angle of attack on the 12z GFS. Being selfish I’d prefer a more westerly tilt but somewhere in the NW is going to get absolutely plastered. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_90_1.png

[Winter Hill]

Saying Bone Dry for BL6 and rest of the Bolton area. 

Think it's going to be frustrating to see areas west of me getting pasted lol.

 

[Makemeasnowman]

Guys and ladies pardon my ignorance. Long time follow and reader but rarely post. When your all talking about a dumping of snow etc what day are you referring to here? I'm based in Liverpool so don't expect a great deal if anything from this. But my girlfriend is over from Spain tomorrow night . We're heading to Edinburgh Wednesday and the lakes Thursday. We are back in Liverpool Friday. Just would be great for her to see some lying snow

[WillinGlossop]

Like the Peak District change in forecast....

[Mokidugway]

6 minutes ago, Makemeasnowman said:

Guys and ladies pardon my ignorance. Long time follow and reader but rarely post. When your all talking about a dumping of snow etc what day are you referring to here? I'm based in Liverpool so don't expect a great deal if anything from this. But my girlfriend is over from Spain tomorrow night . We're heading to Edinburgh Wednesday and the lakes Thursday. We are back in Liverpool Friday. Just would be great for her to see some lying snow

Early next week most likely and hello 

[Mokidugway]

10 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Saying Bone Dry for BL6 and rest of the Bolton area. 

Think it's going to be frustrating to see areas west of me getting pasted lol.

 

I wouldn't hold it to gospel now casting jobbie I reckon .

[Joe Bloggs]

11 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Saying Bone Dry for BL6 and rest of the Bolton area. 

Think it's going to be frustrating to see areas west of me getting pasted lol.

 

Way too early to conclude that IMO.

I think south of the region is most favoured but still a few days to get the exact wind direction nailed. 

[Miamay]

Whats the weather looking like for Manchester on saturday as im planning on going to the xmas markets

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Miamay said:

Whats the weather looking like for Manchester on saturday as im planning on going to the xmas markets

Blizzards and mulled wine Mia 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

If i were in northern wales i would be literally laughing at the moment!!

what about Stafford? agree N Wales looks best, but before the christmas pudding', I got loads from Cheshire Gap streamers

[northwestsnow]

32 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Still a good angle of attack on the 12z GFS. Being selfish I’d prefer a more westerly tilt but somewhere in the NW is going to get absolutely plastered. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_90_1.png

Unfortunately as it stands i think me and thee are going to too far east joe...it could change..defo going to be a radar day thur...

[Weather-history]

.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Weather-history

[northwestsnow]

And along comes ECM!!!

[Weather-history]

Does cold 500hpas combined with 850hpas have an impact on the freezing level?

[Joe Bloggs]

52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately as it stands i think me and thee are going to too far east joe...it could change..defo going to be a radar day thur...

Hmm tough one this. 

It’s still too early to tell. We want as much westerly influence as possible. It also depends on the number of showers that push in, so with low 850s and a warm Irish Sea at this time of year we should at least see something. 

This is overanalysing somewhat but the GFS mean is better than the op for us. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_90_1.png

Peak for snow shower activity - Friday morning IMO. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Hmm tough one this. 

It’s still too early to tell. We want as much westerly influence as possible. It also depends on the number of showers that push in, so with low 850s and a warm Irish Sea at this time of year we should at least see something. 

This is overanalysing somewhat but the GFS mean is better than the op for us. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_90_1.png

Peak for snow shower activity - Friday morning IMO. 

Ec looks even better!!

[Winter Hill]

Almost choked when I saw the Weather for the North west on ITV. 

Chance of sleet on Saturday 

[Mokidugway]

40 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Does cold 500hpas combined with 850hpas have an impact on the freezing level?

You would think as  500 hpa down to 850 hpa cover 4 km of atmosphere 

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Almost choked when I saw the Weather for the North west on ITV. 

Chance of sleet on Saturday 

Had west Cumbria in snow , Cumbria marra must be doing cartwheels ,lol

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Almost choked when I saw the Weather for the North west on ITV. 

Chance of sleet on Saturday 

If that EC at 96 brings nothing here its time for me to find another interest.