North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Mokidugway]

I'm looking at o.oo2 mm it's going to be horrendous 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Gfs 12z going for 39cm around here and ecm going for 12-16 inches with 16-20 inches higher up

thats incredible

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'm looking at o.oo2 mm it's going to be horrendous 

awful conditions, watch out for that 1 flake could be hazardous!

[weatherobsuk]

I still have memories of leaving my shift at the Airport around 3pm some-time around 2005-2007, it was one of those winter days when it was snowing on the higher ground but lower-levels it was mostly sleet. Getting to Stockport on the bus was simple enough with a little rush-hour traffic, then heading up onto the A6 everything just came to a stop. I remember being sat there for hours and tucking into a bottle of pop and few sweets I had at-hand. Crawling further up towards Disley where the snow was barely a few cm deep but people simply weren't prepared for it.

I think it was around 11pm and the longest 8 hours of boredom before I finally got home and got the kettle on. Just goes to show that even a few cm of snow can catch people unawares.

[Joe Bloggs]

You can barely notice it but the flow on the 12z GFS has corrected ever so slightly to the NW compared to the 06z and 00z. 

6z run - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_72_1.png

12z run - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_66_1.png

Flow is also ever so slightly weaker.

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

The Sunday slider could be a memorable one.

[Joe Bloggs]

Looking at the 12z GEFS there is still some uncertainty over whether we are going to get a WNW’ly, or a NW’ly. This will make a big difference as to whether east of the region is generally dry, or whether there’s a lot of snow. I think we should receive clarity by tomorrow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_66_1.png 

[Joe Bloggs]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

ECM is a good trajectory for much of the region and it would likely be better earlier (ie the morning period and overnight Thursday) 

[pip22]

11 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

The Sunday slider could be a memorable one.

I might get stuck at Manchester Airport on my way to Tenerife at this rate!

[Chris.R]

I fully expect Sunday to be snow for all of us as I believe the slider will be modeld further south by then with an  off-shore flow bringing lower DPs so there will be no marginality. Either that or the precipitation will miss us entirely to the south, but then we‘ve always got Monday’s one. 

[Weather-history]

Edited December 5, 2017 by Weather-history

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, pip22 said:

I might get stuck at Manchester Airport on my way to Tenerife at this rate!

I too might have an interesting day! Flying into MAN on Saturday aftetrnoon then the wonderful Transpennine Express luxury service to Leeds. "Sufficient onto the day is the evil thereof", though!

[damianslaw]

Always a bonus to see snowfall at the weekend rather than during the week - perfect for kids and causes generally less of a hazard, lets see how this pans out. Before then, we have potential for hefty continuous snow showers possibly banding together if trough features form on Friday - but we won't know until Friday arrives. Next week although a long way off has further snow potential written all over it, its been a long time since we had the prospect of multiple snow events in such a short space of time during the middle of December. Not even 2010 could do this. 2009 to a certain extent between 18-24 Dec brought about three separate snow events.

[Day 10]

21 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I fully expect Sunday to be snow for all of us as I believe the slider will be modeld further south by then with an  off-shore flow bringing lower DPs so there will be no marginality. Either that or the precipitation will miss us entirely to the south, but then we‘ve always got Monday’s one. 

Fully agree, the models always seem far too progressive in these situations as we've seen many times int the past. Far from bog standard Winter charts at the minute, long may it continue.

Let's hope we finally see some snow round these parts in the form of showers first on Friday eh.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Im not allowing myself to get too excited, seen this before last winter when we were set on getting a pasting only for it to be cut off by that shortwave! I know its different setup but shows how things can change quickly.

[itsnowjoke]

Just been out got icy rain falling 

[itsnowjoke]

And I don't mean hailstones if you know what I mean

[Geordiesnow]

21 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Just been out got icy rain falling 

Must be some sort of strange meteorological goings on in Burnley if you got "icy rain" falling with positive upper air temps and mild ground temps!

As for the NW'ly, some good convective weather coming up for those further South of the region in particular, the differences in upper air temps between the models could turn out to be quite crucial also although I think for inland areas, i'll be shocked if there is no settling snow during this short blast.

As for the slider, its far too early, alot of people are saying oh it will back westwards type of thing but all the output I've seen suggests the trend is opposite as any heights are not as strong but its a catch 22 really, to be in the risk for snowfall, you don't want too much of a westwards trend as you may miss out on any snowfall all together and too far east means rain only.. As the general rule though, further North and East you are, the more likely it will be snow.

[WillinGlossop]

Weather channel giving Peak District 15-35cm from Sunday through Wednesday....

Edited December 5, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[Spah1]

I wish I lived 250m asl. 

At only 90m Sunday looks like rain to me. 

Hopefully it will push south and we keep some colder air.

 

[iand61]

44 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I wish I lived 250m asl. 

At only 90m Sunday looks like rain to me. 

Hopefully it will push south and we keep some colder air.

 

Don't worry, I do live up in the gods and I'm still not expecting much.

recent history has told me that the cold only seems to dig in when the precipitation dries up and I think the wind direction will give us cold but nothing more than dry and sunny conditions, at least until we get into next week.

seasonal conditions for Sunday's Manchester Christmas market trip but a bit of falling snow would add to the effect.

[Miamay]

Will be watching the weather Thursday night and fri night from the cameras outside work during my nightshift. Fingers crossed we do get something at last. We have missed out too many times !,

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Don't worry, I do live up in the gods and I'm still not expecting much.

recent history has told me that the cold only seems to dig in when the precipitation dries up and I think the wind direction will give us cold but nothing more than dry and sunny conditions, at least until we get into next week.

seasonal conditions for Sunday's Manchester Christmas market trip but a bit of falling snow would add to the effect.

Your going to get pummeled with snow sunday at your altitude- im sure of it.

[WillinGlossop]

 

Everyone come up to Glossop/Peak District/Buxton Sunday and go Xmas shopping/country walk in the snow ❄️❄️☃️ I’m doing a roast if anyone’s interested... ?now I’ve said that it’ll probably rain here too hehe ? 

[Mokidugway]

I can get to 300 meters in a 5 minutes drive from mine so if it snows I'll pop up ,lol