North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[cfallon]

Hi guys, first post of the year. How we looking for Oldham area of Manchester from Friday onwards? 

[captaincroc]

16 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

APREGE 12z is perfect for slider sunday

Have you got a link to it please?

[dodge]

Some nice upgrades today with the wintery showers filtering more inland than previously thought.  Hopefully the Irish Sea precipitation generator will get going similiar to Dec 2010 and the showers will merge together to leave a covering for most north western folk.  Sliders have always been disappointing for my locality, due to the East of Gtr Manchester rain shadow.  You watch it make incredibly slow progress on the radar and barely get anything falling in the end.  Maybe this one could be different for Sunday.  I'm hoping we stay on the cold side if it's going to be a slushy breakdown.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

13 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

crap for me lol

Perfect for you too.

Absolute beauty

[I Cumbria Marra I]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php

Thank you, sorry in work so not access to Bookmarks! haha

[Joe Bloggs]

 

The Jan/March 2013 let downs were caused by low pressure systems colliding with an easterly/SE’ly airflow due to a Scandy High setup. This dragged in strong ESE’lies which resulted in the dreaded snow shadow. 

The setup for Sunday looks different with light, variable winds which should hopefully not have the same infuriating effect! 

He says confidently. 

[Spah1]

super duper me, could this be any better? 

 Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:

Monday will see outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, most likely across central and southern parts at first, clearing to brighter skies and wintry showers. Further accumulations of snow are most likely in central and northern areas. By midweek, we may see another spell of rain, sleet and snow moving east across many parts for a time. Otherwise, a changeable period with bright spells and wintry showers, these most frequent in the north and west. There is a continued risk of snow accumulations for all areas, either from showers or more organised frontal bands moving in from off the Atlantic. Some strong winds at times, especially in the west and northwest. Probably staying cold, with overnight frost and ice, with perhaps less cold interludes possible, especially in the south.

[Weather-history]

 

[Thunder Snow]

13 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Perfect for you too.

Absolute beauty

that looks loads better i was veiwing the precip charts and they had it all further south. How mich could i see and is that still for sunday

[Mokidugway]

Not impressed by snowfall chances in my locale , I'll believe it when I see it ,lol

[damianslaw]

Lets get Friday over first before we start speculating about Sunday. Potential for some very beefy snow showers overnight Thursday and into Friday for much of the region, locations nearer the coast especially around Liverpool Bay area look most favoured, but wouldn't be surprised if most of us had at least a slight cover come this time in 48 hours. The Irish Sea can generate convection activity under low uppers as forecast, and a slight change in wind direction more to the WNW would enable showers to penetrate eastwards well inland. I remember Dec 20 2009 when we had an irish streamer affect, though low pressure was anchored more to the NW then and we had more of a southwesterly feed - Morecambe Bay became a snow making machine with thunder as well..

N Wales looks prime spot though for continuous heavy snow showers.

I've said the Lake District is a world to itself, and the forecasters never accurately predict convective showery activity very well here, due to the complex local topography - homegrown showers often spring up out of nowhere thanks to the warm air being cooled once it hits the central fells, this gives the convection an electricity. I'm hoping for just a cover, a cm or two would do, and it would then stick around through Saturday thanks to the promise of maxima of about 2 degrees.

I'll start thinking about Sunday once Friday has arrived.

In the meantime what a miserable early descent into dusk today, it became dark at half 3, truly one of those dark days before Christmas. The change to polar airstream will bring much brighter skies and make it feel far better than currently.

Lots to look forward to if your a snow cold lover - even more so if you like the build up to Christmas to be cold and snowy. Its about time, given how dire the last four Decembers have been for anything notably wintry. Indeed have to go back to 2010 since we had a cold period immediately before Christmas- fingers crossed this cold period lasts through until then.

[Chris.R]

Don’t like the GFS 12Z after Sunday, winds back round to a north-westerly again which would melt anything still on the ground, but not worth worrying about yet. 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Don’t like the GFS 12Z after Sunday, winds back round to a north-westerly again which would melt anything still on the ground, but not worth worrying about yet. 

Would all depend on how snow has fallen. Some preety cold surface air will have developed by then and take a bit of time to shift. The main factor will be the strength of any wind, as this would have the effect of mixing the cold air at the surface out. Places further inland with height though I suspect would hold onto the snow cover to some degree. Lets just wait and see.

[itsnowjoke]

Well it's raining here for a change 

[itsnowjoke]

40 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Not impressed by snowfall chances in my locale , I'll believe it when I see it ,lol

Do you have any idea about my location please moki 

[captaincroc]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Lets get Friday over first before we start speculating about Sunday. Potential for some very beefy snow showers overnight Thursday and into Friday for much of the region, locations nearer the coast especially around Liverpool Bay area look most favoured, but wouldn't be surprised if most of us had at least a slight cover come this time in 48 hours. The Irish Sea can generate convection activity under low uppers as forecast, and a slight change in wind direction more to the WNW would enable showers to penetrate eastwards well inland. I remember Dec 20 2009 when we had an irish streamer affect, though low pressure was anchored more to the NW then and we had more of a southwesterly feed - Morecambe Bay became a snow making machine with thunder as well..

N Wales looks prime spot though for continuous heavy snow showers.

I've said the Lake District is a world to itself, and the forecasters never accurately predict convective showery activity very well here, due to the complex local topography - homegrown showers often spring up out of nowhere thanks to the warm air being cooled once it hits the central fells, this gives the convection an electricity. I'm hoping for just a cover, a cm or two would do, and it would then stick around through Saturday thanks to the promise of maxima of about 2 degrees.

I'll start thinking about Sunday once Friday has arrived.

In the meantime what a miserable early descent into dusk today, it became dark at half 3, truly one of those dark days before Christmas. The change to polar airstream will bring much brighter skies and make it feel far better than currently.

Lots to look forward to if your a snow cold lover - even more so if you like the build up to Christmas to be cold and snowy. Its about time, given how dire the last four Decembers have been for anything notably wintry. Indeed have to go back to 2010 since we had a cold period immediately before Christmas- fingers crossed this cold period lasts through until then.

Hi Damian. 

As you might have seen earlier in the thread I am off Colwyn Bay on Friday for the weekend. This is obviously on the North Wales coast so prime slot for shower activity. What do you think realistically will happen with accumulation? As I know it's on the coast but someone in the NE thread said they got settling snow on the beach at -7 uppers last week? 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

 

[Thunder Snow]

Think that just misses me looool

[itsnowjoke]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

 

I think I'm in that small gap with not even precipitation 

[itsnowjoke]

3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

[SP1986]

rather looking forward to Friday.. snow showers even on the coast and probable lying here.

Its about time

[Spah1]

Ahem 

l’ll just leave this here. 

[Chris.R]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Would all depend on how snow has fallen. Some preety cold surface air will have developed by then and take a bit of time to shift. The main factor will be the strength of any wind, as this would have the effect of mixing the cold air at the surface out. Places further inland with height though I suspect would hold onto the snow cover to some degree. Lets just wait and see.

 Yes sorry that was quite an imby post; no way Snow would stick around in a north-westerly in my location. As you say let’s concentrate on Friday. Looking good for me I suppose but a little bit concerned with the 850s though. Expecting quite a lot of lightning activity though if past experience is anything to go by. 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Chris.R

[Thunder Snow]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Ahem 

l’ll just leave this here. 

Alittle further north please