North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Haha a couple of weather models/forecasts have Peak District under 70-80cm Sunday/Monday...don’t think so....

Something dead wrong with those ECM Charts 

[WillinGlossop]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Something dead wrong with those ECM Charts 

Had three months wood delivered for woodburner yesterday... majestic delivery for Christmas this morning.... will be well supplied if we do get snowed in.... ???❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

[Joe Bloggs]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes and joe bloggs told me to wait until 48hrs before the event- and thats where we are now.

Mmust admit FG, i will be bitterly disappointed if i wake up nothing on friday morning as i think it looks really good- EURO4 has uppers of -8 by 00am fri !! With altitude on our side it can surely only be snow, if the precip hits that is..

Yep I am not surprised by the sudden arrival of the heavy snow symbols. Happens every time in this situation once you get within short range. 

[northwestsnow]

Well i been up all night lol.

So sleep time for me, think tomorrow night could be the first all nighter for years!!

Would want to see the warnings from meto upgraded this morning- looking at all the data i would be shocked if there was not a mention of 5cm + across much of the region, initially places exposed to the WNW wind and then transfering towards cheshire fri morning, if there is no upgrade my confidence will plummet..

 

[WillinGlossop]

Sunday Monday 9-15 inches of snow....yes please...likely probably not...

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Sunday Monday 9-15 inches of snow....yes please...likely probably not...

The lower end is definitely possible the upper end I don’t think so but we’ll see. GFS has 21cm of snow in your patch but  high ground of NW Wales has 91cm. 

[Acupuncturist]

Both BBC and Met office forecasts are very uninspiring for Manchester right throughout so Im not getting my hopes up until that changes. The chorlton snow shield is pretty effective even when it snows in other parts of Manchester

[The Northern Ramper]

Glad to be back posting in here for the duration of the cold spell, the model thread is tiresome.

[itsnowjoke]

Welcome back Ramp

[Spah1]

slider now missing us !!!!

nnnoooooo!!!

[frosty ground]

GFS 06z shifts Sundays fun south...... way south

[Spah1]

[Day 10]

Terrible run if you want this slider to verify North!

[Day 10]

Just now, Spah1 said:

How do you get the uk maps as above mate?

[pip22]

It is really very nice to see my beeb app showing some heavy snow symbols for Chorley on Friday am.

Edited December 6, 2017 by pip22

[Spah1]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

 

[Spah1]

If it corrects anymore south its going to miss the whole country!

[frosty ground]

Think our Liverpool Residents would be happy with this (ICON)

It also shows the rain shadow for Manchester from the peaks in a south easterly. 

[frosty ground]

Warning updated...... 10-20cm possible towards the west Midlands.....

During Friday, increasingly frequent snow showers already affecting northern Scotland and Northern Ireland will extend across many other northern and western parts of the UK. 2-5 cm of snow is likely fairly widely, with 10-20 cm in places, mainly northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, north Wales and perhaps the northwest Midlands.

Areas like Crew should see the same surely?

With those depths Amber warning must be realised today.

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Warning updated...... 10-20cm possible towards the west Midlands.....

During Friday, increasingly frequent snow showers already affecting northern Scotland and Northern Ireland will extend across many other northern and western parts of the UK. 2-5 cm of snow is likely fairly widely, with 10-20 cm in places, mainly northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, north Wales and perhaps the northwest Midlands.

Areas like Crew should see the same surely?

With those depths Amber warning must be realised today.

Don't worry, you will do very well in Crewe!

Here in Manchester I expect to wake up to a light dusting on Friday morning and then sunny and cold till the flow turns more westerly/northwesterly on Saturday and brings some snow showers east.

Having said that, only a slight shift is needed in the wind direction to bring more of us in the game.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Not surprised to see the slider shift south, honestly cant remember the last slider to give snow imby, probably 1996.

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Not surprised to see the slider shift south, honestly cant remember the last slider to give snow imby, probably 1996.

Just one run,as Nick f has just quoted in the MOD thread he would be very surprised if it does not move further North,after days of sitting on the fence,I have now got of my fence,Thursday night into Friday morning/evening looks fantastic here with frequent heavy snow showers through the cheshire Gap,with possible streamer as well,will reserve judgement for Sunday but lets hope for a northward shift on the 12z so we can all enjoy the snow

C.S. 

[Chris.R]

Well Met Office app for me now showing sleet symbols mixed in with the rain for once, not that I’m taking any notice. Don’t think I’ve ever seen snow on it before anyway. 

[Chris.R]

I like the 6z, no marginality at all  Sunday although less precip. 

[karyo]

The 6z JMA is the best for our whole region as it keep a more westerly/northwesterly flow through Friday and an abundance of snow showers for most of us. Not the most reliable model of course but the 6z gfs also has a slight westerly shift in the flow compared to the 0z. Let's hope this is a trend.