North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I like the 6z, no marginality at all  Sunday although less precip. 

So do I as it gives more room error if the models want to trend it a bit further Northwards which of course could still happen and its what the ECM and to a lesser extent the UKMO shows. It really is going to be a lot of IMBY type of posts in the model thread so you have to bear that in mind that's for sure.

As for the convective fun and games, I'm still dubious about the GFS upper air temps charts, I think the model does have a cold bias because the last NW'ly blast we had here never really got that cold despite GFS showing uppers of around -7 I believe whilst ECM had more patchy areas of temps of around -5. Maybe thats why the fun and games may not start until Friday day time instead of overnight on Thursday but hope I am wrong on that!

[Spah1]

MO warnings amended.

Snow further East - North West Snow  !!

[Winter Hill]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

MO warnings amended.

Snow further East - North West Snow  !!

Further east ?

[Chris.R]

It’s a win-win  situation for us really. If the slider does miss us to the south which there is a good possibility it might, then that keeps us in the cold off-shore flow for longer therefore building a surface cold pool and reducing SSTs further. they’ll always be another opportunity when the next system comes in. If however it ends up a halfway house between 0Z and 6Z then we get buried; happy days. 

[captaincroc]

The funny thing is I won't be around this weekend to really appreciate the falls from the streamers, but for us to be especially added to the Met Office warnings specifically is pretty exciting. As if the slider does miss us then it will be bitterly cold under lightish winds so the snow should stay.

Let's see how the slider pans out on the 12z's.

[griff74]

Hi guys, good to be back again watching the build up to some decent winter weather!!

Looks like I might have picked the wrong (or right I suppose) day to drive from Manchester to North Wales on Friday to go Christmas shopping with my mum in Chester, should be fun!! 

[captaincroc]

Just now, griff74 said:

Hi guys, good to be back again watching the build up to some decent winter weather!!

Looks like I might have picked the wrong (or right I suppose) day to drive from Manchester to North Wales on Friday to go Christmas shopping with my mum in Chester, should be fun!! 

Same here, i'm travelling to Colwyn Bay for my birthday for the weekend. Looks like it will be snow there too, more marginal as on coast but only a few miles inland and it should be winter wonderland.

[WillinGlossop]

Euro4 now within 48hrs has this...

Edited December 6, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[griff74]

4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Same here, i'm travelling to Colwyn Bay for my birthday for the weekend. Looks like it will be snow there too, more marginal as on coast but only a few miles inland and it should be winter wonderland.

yeah should be a good weekend to be in North Wales!!!

[karyo]

 

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Euro4 now within 48hrs has this...

Yes, good to see the euro 4 expecting some decent intensity in the overnight showers. It should be an organised trough.

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

 

Yes, good to see the euro 4 expecting some decent intensity in the overnight showers. It should be an organised trough.

It's good as that is Friday 6am, so really before the showers and temps have really got going. Exciting weekend for parts of the region for sure.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

It's good as that is Friday 6am, so really before the showers and temps have really got going. Exciting weekend for parts of the region for sure.

For more inland areas like Manchester that looks to be the highlight in terms of shower activity as later things dry up.

Towards the coast and Cheshire it is a different story of course. 

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Think our Liverpool Residents would be happy with this (ICON)

It also shows the rain shadow for Manchester from the peaks in a south easterly. 

Ha, I wish!

[Staffordshire]

I have to make my decision today... stay at home in Gentleshaw this weekend (until Sunday evening) or spend the Weekend in Manchester City centre. Where are my chances best do you think?

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

I have to make my decision today... stay at home in Gentleshaw this weekend (until Sunday evening) or spend the Weekend in Manchester City centre. Where are my chances best do you think?

Stay where you are 100%! 

[Staffordshire]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Stay where you are 100%! 

What is your justification for this? A few models seem to favour the north west. Cheers.

[karyo]

Just now, Staffordshire said:

What is your justification for this? A few models seem to favour the north west. Cheers.

The wind direction will favour your location bringing snow showers forming streamers from the Irish sea. Unless of course things change and winds turn more westerly but this is not very likely at this late stage.

Even if we had an equal chance of snowfall, Manchester city centre is never a good place to see snow on the ground due to the heat island effect and thousands of walking feet! 

I used to live in Stoke and know the differences in the two locations.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Southern Froth and Frenzy.

LP sinking Lower  

[Hocus Pocus]

I think some of us North of the Ribble will be wondering what all the fuss is about come next week, looking like a dry but cold snap of weather from Thursday Evening onwards.

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, Winter Hill said:

Further east ?

warning has been extended to include west lakes and further east of Chorley

[Staffordshire]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

The wind direction will favour your location bringing snow showers forming streamers from the Irish sea. Unless of course things change and winds turn more westerly but this is not very likely at this late stage.

Even if we had an equal chance of snowfall, Manchester city centre is never a good place to see snow on the ground due to the heat island effect and thousands of walking feet! 

I used to live in Stoke and know the differences in the two locations.

Thanks very much for your insight!

[Thunder Snow]

Not getting my hope up for this cold spell, and the 06z has moved the slider down south

[frosty ground]

Looks like the warning area has been updated even further East.....Past Leeds now.

Only a small area of the NW England misses the warning.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Looks like the warning area has been updated even further East.....Past Leeds now.

Only a small area of the NW England misses the warning.

That's brilliant! They must be thinking there will be a more westerly component in the flow than before.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

That's brilliant! They must be thinking there will be a more westerly component in the flow than before.

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2017_12/42.gif.d3eb065f36737ba8d7c53d6dd3615076.gif

Might have something to do with that.... (From the Yorkshire thread)