Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Daniel*]

The day 10 ECM chart got my heart in a flutter definitely has a ‘classic’ look to it - the first genuine clear route to proper cold on mid term NWP, best of all it isn’t out of the realm of possibility. 

[bobbydog]

some cracking output lately, negative AO, greenland highs, retrogressing highs, the works. a lot of variation in the evolutions but pretty much just a variation on a theme- 

that theme being a smashed vortex.

as they used to say in my native north east, in relation to a famous department store,  if we dont get a decent snowfall this winter, i'll show my @rse in Fenwicks window!

[feb1991blizzard]

The JMA is a reasonable match for the ECM at 192.

 

EDIT : this had already been pointed out.

Edited November 8, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The day 10 ECM chart got my heart in a flutter definitely has a ‘classic’ look to it - the first genuine clear route to proper cold on mid term NWP, best of all it isn’t out of the realm of possibility. 

Looks well positioned for retrogression and undercut with Arctic blast around the corner. No consistency in the models as to what form of blocking and type flow we will end up with yet though.

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, EML Network said:

well it's nice to finally be back here after having been away for over a year I think.

Things really do seem to be shaping up for a far more interesting winter than we've had in a long while and it's no surprise to me at least that this is coinciding with a decline in sunspot activity. 

Anyhow, thought I would throw my pennies worth in re the ECM..

If that rolled on I don't think many of us would be best pleased, the High to our East would sink and the winds would swing around to a direct southerly and the low to our South West would roll over the high and reset the Atlantic. 

It's easy to look at charts and imagine what you want to see evolving, but you can't always do that you have to look at the frames previous to see the likely evolution. 

It's an interesting end to the ECM, but I prefer the GFS evolution as it keeps us in the game.

 

Still it's all way too far out to invest any thoughts into, if there's one thing I've learn't over the past decade on this site, it's that when it comes to winter you really can't get yourself excited about anything beyond 144 ..well you can if you want to, but be prepared to be let down more often than not. 

 

great to be back with something worth discussing for once

Nice to have you back!

Like a school reunion in here tonight!

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The JMA is a reasonable match for the ECM at 192.

Quiet right there feb,i am just wondering what opportunities might lie ahead of that 192 chart,if the heights pushed a little further north then an easterly or northeasterly could be on the cards.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Quiet right there feb,i am just wondering what opportunities might lie ahead of that 192 chart,if the heights pushed a little further north then an easterly or northeasterly could be on the cards

I think the safest route would be the 17th dec 2010 route - the snap-off PV direct hit, always wary with these though that although the GFS will never have the correct solution with its messy shortwave prone evolutions but the ECM is often 'Too' clean at that range and spoilers usually crop up nearer the time.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Looks well positioned for retrogression and undercut with Arctic blast around the corner. No consistency in the models as to what form of blocking and type flow we will end up with yet though.

Indeed, and it is this lack of consistency that make everything so interesting right now, the models always struggle in these sort of set ups of course, so there will be many twists and turns to come no doubt about that.

[knocker]

Normal service resumed with the EPS mean anomaly.

[nick sussex]

Good consistency from the ECM in terms of overall trend.  We see the benefits here of more amplitude to upstream low pressure which helps to pull high pressure further north ahead of it .

The GFS however isn’t on the same page so best to be cautious. As long as you get the digging low pressure to the west of the UK then downstream this does force high pressure to ridge north.

We could though do with the troughing to the west being more negatively tilted at T192 hrs as this increases the margin for error .

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Normal service resumed with the EPS mean anomaly.

Normal service? Bit cryptic that old bean.....i assume that means zonal 

[Day 10]

Don't you just love Day 10!

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Normal service? Bit cryptic that old bean.....i assume that means zonal 

No I just meant that the 7-12 anomaly was very similar to the previous run and discarding the odd end to the det run  ..old bean.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Don't you just love Day 10!

Nyet, I cannae stand Day 10 - my mother always used to tell me that 'tomorrow never comes' -  let alone day ten!

[nick sussex]

Just to explain the importance of tilt to troughing this signifies if you like where the energy from this wants to go, also the shape of low pressure.

In this type of set up we're relying on high pressure over central southern Europe being sucked north. This is the reaction to low pressure in the Atlantic amplifying and digging south into the Atlantic, so as that low digs south and elongates the high is forced north but we want energy from low pressure to the west to not spill over the top so this is where your tilt of low/troughing comes into the equation.

Negative tilt is the low aligned more nw/se, positive ne/sw and neutral n/s.

 

[matty40s]

56 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I've just borrowed Nicks crayons for a second.

Low pressure to the North of the UK will head South/South-Eastwards, high pressure will shift North-Westwards towards and over Greenland and the cold air over Central Europe will push East towards the UK. Basically identical to the 2010 gif posted above.

 

I would hope the Central Europe Cold pool would push West...unless it' going the long way round.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm and gfs day ten mean,you don't see that very often

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm and gfs day ten mean,you don't see that very often

This is what I like to see!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm and gfs day ten mean,you don't see that very often

I wish the ECM eps was a bit more definined, would like to see definitive significant cold clusters start to come on board in the next week, remember, these brilliant hemispheric patterns were showing up last year around Nov / Dec but we never had a significant 850 clustering flatlining in the frigid category.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wish the ECM eps was a bit more definined, would like to see definitive significant cold clusters start to come on board in the next week, remember, these brilliant hemispheric patterns were showing up last year around Nov / Dec but we never had a significant 850 clustering flatlining in the frigid category.

Yes,we seem to forget how big the northern hemisphere is and it looks small on our comp screens lol,we just need things to fall in the right place,we just missed out big time last year.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Are the eps still trending down right to the end of the run - temps wise?

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are the eps still trending down right to the end of the run - temps wise?

Sorry to sound a bit dum,i have heard of the eps but not looked into it before,what does it mean and do we have links to them,i presume they are like ens yes.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry to sound a bit dum,i have heard of the eps but not looked into it before,what does it mean and do we have links to them,i presume they are like ens yes.

The ECM ens.

[SMU]

Evening All-

If you ever want a chart to verify its the ECM day 10 - its the perfect chart for cold @day 12 & 13.

heres the chart with 2 key dates from the archives.

 

No pressure.....

 

 

[mulzy]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are the eps still trending down right to the end of the run - temps wise?

Yes - same pattern remains in the extended eps. Negative NAO/AO territory.