Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[northwestsnow]

GFS op brings a very very cold last third of November 

As mentioned by the pros i would imagine snow and ice becoming relevant if this run were to come to fruition.

In the interests of fairness it is well into FI, and im not sure how to view the ukmo 144 this morning-

Much less enthusiastic about the trough swinging down from Iceland which allows the cold plunge GFS is showing,imho .:)

Edited November 9, 2017 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

How come meteociel and also ecm seem to go awol when things start to get interesting weather wise. 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

How come meteociel and also ecm seem to go awol when things start to get interesting weather wise. 

ECM is available on ecmwf.int

 

[knocker]

Explosive cyclogenesis this morning. Just seeing if I can actually post something

Edited November 9, 2017 by knocker

[swfc]

Morning.any info on this mornings ecm?.searched but to no avail

Tia

Edited November 9, 2017 by swfc

[winterof79]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

[snowbunting]

The battle of the models begins. 

At time 240hrs

ECM going for high pressure.

The GFS going for a Nly lasting days

Both suggesting a greenie high building.

 

So which one will be right?

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

The battle of the models begins. 

At time 240hrs

ECM going for high pressure.

The GFS going for a Nly lasting days

Both suggesting a greenie high building.

 

So which one will be right?

Experience tells us neither .........

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts have had to go this morning, Please use the pm system for general chit chat away from the models, Thanks.

Edited November 9, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[sebastiaan1973]

Hi guys you can also use https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/2017110900/england/luftdruck/20171116-0000z.html

Please check the right parameters. Different models, you can zoom in, different countries and/or regio's within countries.

E.g. Northpole

 

[Frosty.]

Hoping the Gfs 00z is right about this..mid / late November would be perfick!

Edited November 9, 2017 by Frosty.

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Experience tells us neither .........

To be honest I think the Ecm op is somewhere near the mark this morning. Quite often we see an anticyclonic spell as we approach the beginning of December. Too much energy going over the top AGAIN to prevent anything more meaningful in terms of cold. 

[bluearmy]

The eps seem to show a messier transition to the greeny ridge - the gfs op looks much too clean when compared against the eps 

need to see the 12z suites before taking too much from one run but the op ecm has been leading in this ‘transition direction’ for a few runs now 

[Polar Maritime]

As Knocker points out and something im keeping a close eye on is by around the 17th a deep low crosses the UK. This could being some pretty wintry blizzard like conditions for parts of the Pennines & Scotland.

 

 

Edited November 9, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[MR EXTREMES]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

To be honest I think the Ecm op is somewhere near the mark this morning. Quite often we see an anticyclonic spell as we approach the beginning of December. Too much energy going over the top AGAIN to prevent anything more meaningful in terms of cold. 

From the ECM model I'd say nothing mild but settled night frost.

But beyond 240 heights rising in the pole which would tank the ao negative.

Beyond 240 I reckon a retrogression with lows dropping to our east and heights pulling West and Northwest.

Even at 144 it's heading this way.

Interesting outputs something is brewing and I believe this year showing much much more promising for cold this season helped along with wave breaking hyper hurricane season and east QBO and low solar activity.

But I stay on the fence till I see the northern blocking in a more realistic timeframe.

But beautiful charts lately.

[Polar Maritime]

Further into the run the GFS continues with a cool/cold N/W flow turning Northerly as systems pass. Quite a messy end to the run with the Models still getting a grips as heights push North.

Edited November 9, 2017 by Polar Maritime
Charts are back to front.

[summer blizzard]

Euro shows us an excellent example of how we can still be screwed for a few days (though eventually we would get something from the day 10 chart i feel). Essentially the jet amplifies as per GFS but at day 8 the low exiting Newfoundland is too fast and everything gets flattened a bit. We'd then be waiting a few days for the flow to sufficiently amplify again that the low in the Atlantic sinks and tries to force a degree of retrogression. 

GFS on the other hand is magical. The low exiting Newfoundland never really strengthens and so whole setup has no real barrier to amplification. From there the northerly just keeps going as heights over Greenland never truly come under threat. At day 15 it looks like we're about to see round 2. Indeed at days 11 and 13 the GFS has the potential for more widespread snow (the kink in the isobars here is a weak front moving south with cool air in front and cold behind. 

 

 

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

As Knocker points out and something im keeping a close eye on is by around the 17th a deep low crosses the UK. This could being some pretty wintry conditions for parts of the Pennines & Scotland.

 

 

Yes quite a changeable and sometimes rather cold outlook showing this morning PM.

In spite of the dis-organised pv we still have the lobe around Greenland and the Azores high ebbing and flowing to the south so for us essentially we keep our usual Atlantic pattern for now.

The day 10 ens charts for both.

so quite a chilly and unsettled period with low pressure whipping across the north bringing cold polar maritime air south,hill snow and night frosts at times. 

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Morning.any info on this mornings ecm?.searched but to no avail

Tia

Seems to be fine now

[captaincroc]

I think the GFS route looks more probably to me (not that 'that' properly exists in the model world).  This isn't a common occurrence and we know the models struggle when things aren't the norm. I reckon the trough will drop into Scandi (in time) and the high will move across to Greenland leaving us in a northerly flow....once/if the low moves east, if that happens then the floodgates will open.

My only concern is if we get the blocking too westerly based but we have to remember what a great place we are to be in with the PV is battered at this time of year, gives us SO much more chance of snow, cold etc. Whether it comes though is another matter.

[Man With Beard]

Most EC ensembles follow the op, with quite a big move towards heights over Europe by D10. The pattern that follows is broadly the same i.e. heights building towards Greenland (though not many towards Scandinavia now) and low pressure trying to sink through the UK. However, the tendency not to push low pressure through towards Europe has grown further, and from a very quick scan I think the majority of runs see the cold going to our west.

Cold options not off the table by any means, and there's still going to be a good cluster with a potential northerly/easterly by D12 - but the weighting is probably 30/70 against significant cold just at this moment. 

One thing that isn't going away, though, is the idea of an Arctic High spreading its influence towards Greenland, and while that remains the case, the UK stays in the game for cold as just one episode of minor Atlantic amplification could bring the house down.

It was never going to be easy!

[knocker]

The ecm appears to have been slowly watering down it's position regarding the pattern change into the 10-15 period At the transition which is around the 8-10 mark it starts to differ from the GEFs by promoting a brief ridge into Scandinavia, Thus on the 10-15 period the mean anomaly still shows ridging in the western Atlantic but nowhere near such an amplified meridional pattern as a couple of days ago with the weaker trough to the east of the UK. Albeit still a not particularly strong north westerly upper flow so still changeable with temps below average. None of this anywhere near set in stone

Edited November 9, 2017 by knocker

[jvenge]

Sometimes chasing the furthest reaches of the output one can miss what is coming up in the near term. ECM this morning showing a cold start to next Monday for the UK, with temps just above freezing for much of the country and parts of the North West and parts of Scotland seeing temps just below freezing. Snow for the north west of Scotland. Sorry, the little disclaimer on the site I use says I can't take images from there in regards to the ECM.

I'm missing meteociel this morning, as it tends to be the easiest way to see what the GEFS is showing. But, as a visual, how the GEFS mean 2m sees it for Europe for the next few weeks. And it is seeing things differently to the ECM EPS and it is likely more worthwhile to focus on the 7-10 time range at the moment, rather than focussing too much on the further reaches of the GEFS output.

It seems realistic to say that at times the UK will experience below average temperatures for the next few weeks and at times comfortably below average. 

The EPS 46 should be interesting next run to see what the ECM decides it is doing with the NAO. GEFS are keen to send it negative from mid month.

Seems Weatherbell is having issues with its teleconnections page. A lot of outdated stuff there.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Huge differences between GFS and ECM at D10 this morning GFS brings us a northerly with some snow mainly in the north but even in the south for higher parts whilst ECM has high pressure extending up from Europe keeping us dry and cold

[karlos1983]

Can anyone here back this teasing tweet up? Are we destined to go cold even if it’s a longer route to get there like the picture ECM is painting this morning?

 

Edited November 9, 2017 by karlos1983