Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[nick sussex]

The UKMO at T168 hrs looks close to the ECM which is good to see.

The ECM ensembles are less supportive , we do see a large spread of members in about a weeks time . The control run though turns very cold for De Bilt from the 20th.

[Chesil View]

Hi guys I was formerly mcweather.

Great to have something interesting to look at even if it is still a way off yet. I have a feeling that rather like Brian Gaze has suggested on TWO that we will see the longer range/seasonal tools making a late break towards something more wintry as they start to smell the coffee rather than allow the undoubtedly warm year to carry on skewing their winter outlooks as they have done so far. The crazily mild outlooks they have been showing were almost as ridiculous as it would be if they were showing a winter like 1684. It,s worth remembering that as others have pointed out that 2010 was the warmest year on record at the time but still gave us record cold and snow both at the beginning and end of the year.

When it comes to our winter weather it is the daily/weekly/monthly synoptics that decide whether we get cold and snow not whether the globe as a whole has had a very warm year or not.

Edited November 8, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[sebastiaan1973]

Yes, once again the control goes wild. With a very cold scenario. There is not much support (at the moment)

[bobbydog]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Yes, once again the control goes wild. With a very cold scenario. There is not much support (at the moment)

well, i give it my full support! 

[bluearmy]

The ec control (apropos of nothing as I place almost no value to it ) brings in a cold easterly flow with euro low and block across to strong scrussian ridge 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very interesting re ECM......rhythm of the winter, odd stark changes.  We could see some southerlies before northerlies.  I’m happy with the thought that we will get displaced PV over us then to our east with HP to our W/ NW..... how we get there will be interesting......ecm I’m inclined to be with.  

This could get very interesting

 

BFTP

[knocker]

The supposition that there may be a lag on NOAA due the transition period of the pattern changewould appear to be on the money.

The EPS 10-15 is not a million miles away from the NOAA so a tricky weather picture on the basis of this with temps below average but no obvious route to a Polar Plunge, or any other plunge come to that.

Edited November 8, 2017 by knocker

[Dennis]

todays GEM model run 12z

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

todays GEM model run 12z

For clarity, the ens control Dennis 

[winterof79]

http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/weer-en-klimaatpluim

 

Click on expertpluim on drop down box

 

Nice link for you guys and Gals to explore.

Edited November 8, 2017 by winterof79

[snowray]

30 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Yes, once again the control goes wild. With a very cold scenario. There is not much support (at the moment)

Nice extended ensembles there for the ECM, by the look of that It seems to me that the control is almost certainly going for the northerly plunge.

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For clarity, the ens control Dennis 

Hi BA 

Quick question why does the control run always going off on one ? It always seems to go for the exstreme solution ?  

Cheers 

[Geordiesnow]

In terms of the medium term, it looks certain pressure will be high across the Arctic, this has been a common trend but the question will be just how strong will the height rises will actually end up and what affects, if any, that will have on our weather. For me, the potential of any blocking over Greenland is way too far out and although there are background signals favouring that outcome, i'll believe it when I see it.

Back to the short term, in my eyes the models have actually upgraded on the Atlantic ridge in the last few days which as a result means the Northerly flow ends up a touch stronger, it will always be a toppler but for some members in the North, there is definate potential of seeing some wintry precipitation this weekend. Hopefully the models continue the more stronger Atlantic ridge as that means when it topples in slowly on Sunday night, the potential for a sharp widespread frost increases although wind may be a spoiling factor in this somewhat.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Nice extended ensembles there for the ECM, by the look of that It seems to me that the control is almost certainly going for the northerly plunge.

No, its an Easterly. its probably similar to the GEM control.

[northwestsnow]

Don't think we will be seeing much of the old orange and yellow crayons for a wee while 

Plenty of blocking across our north as we move through the second half of November- 

Dry and cold, sub zero nights for many i would suggest

Think i might invest in a fur hat - might be needing it for walks in't pennines soon enough

Edited November 8, 2017 by northwestsnow

[winterof79]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, its an Easterly. its probably similar to the GEM control.

Yes North East veering East

 

weer-en-klimaatpluim.svgweer-en-klimaatpluim.svg

Edited November 8, 2017 by winterof79

[snowray]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi BA 

Quick question why does the control run always going off on one ? It always seems to go for the exstreme solution ?  

Cheers 

Not always extreme solutions, the operational can be just as extreme at times, in fact might get one off those from the coming up 18z after this evenings ECM. The control is simply run at a lower resolution so is less accurate, generally speaking anyway.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't think we will be seeing much of the old orange and yellow crayons for a wee while 

- 

 

We will, the +ve brightness colour anomaly will be over Scandinavia and Greenland though as opposed to the usual winter location of the UK!

[Scandinavian High.]

Interesting times ahead could we be seeing snow back end of November the last descant snow I see was November 2010❄️

Edited November 8, 2017 by abbie123

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, its an Easterly. its probably similar to the GEM control.

Ah right I can see that now, you could be right there, but the GEM control is different to the ECM operational at T240?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Interesting times ahead could we be seeing snow back end of November the last descant snow I see was November 2010❄️

Looks right/acceptable to me 

 

BFTP

Edited November 8, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ice Day]

It's a bit like the Blues Brothers on here this evening......'we're going to put the band back together'.  Good to see the same old faces back on here, dripping in early winter hope and expectation before model fatigue kicks and and another 'that ECM' event leaves us all in ruins! 

Anyway, before the mods lock me down, we are seeing some stunning FI charts at the moment, with high lat blocking being a repeat feature over the last few days.  I really like the look of the ECM tonight at 240, the cold building on the near continent just primed and ready to come our way.

Of course it will look different on the next run but there really could be something brewing for some early winter fun and games.  Eye's down for a pub run special.

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Interesting times ahead could we seeing snow back end of November the last descant snow I see was November 2010❄️

Yes thats the one, I'm thinking that this is the most likely outcome, if everything were to fall into place that is of course.

[bluearmy]

The ec control is not like the ec op at day 10

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't think we will be seeing much of the old orange and yellow crayons for a wee while 

Plenty of blocking across our north as we move through the second half of November- 

Dry and cold, sub zero nights for many i would suggest

Think i might invest in a fur hat - might be needing it for walks in't pennines soon enough

That's the reason i like that chart,get the cold in place first and hopefully the rest will follow

i keep on banging on about it but these charts that keep popping up are like 2010,and back then the same was happening

Edited November 8, 2017 by Allseasons-si