Hurricane Nate

[summer blizzard]

Recon confirm 994mb and the NHC confirm 60mph. Nate now has a partial wrap around on the east side and it is clearly mixing winds down better. 

Likely that Nate becomes a hurricane early tomorrow, probably a category 2 at landfall. 

[karyo]

We now have hurricane Nate with 80mph sustained winds.

Moving fast though towards the north/northwest at 22mph.

[cowdog]

Going to be interesting to see what the current Recon flight finds when it gets to Nate, given its not following the model predictions. Has to be not insignificant odds of it becoming a major hurricane now, given how quickly its intensified.

[summer blizzard]

Pressure is probably falling too slowly for it to make major status but since the wrap around completed it has performed. It should certainly be category 2 at landfall. 

[Daniel*]

It’s a season that keeps on giving and surprising.  

 

[alexisj9]

15 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nate now at 50mph and has wrapped convection round the north, west and south sides. If it wraps convection round the east then we may see why SHIPS is suggesting rapid intensification chances as being higher than average. 

Sadly even at Harvey levels of deepening we won't see anything beyond category 2, more likely a high end category 1 given the short time frame. 

Why sadly thats a good thing.

[knocker]

Hurricane Nate Racing North Towards New Orleans

https://blog.weather.us/hurricane-nate-racing-north-towards-new-orleans/

[crimsone]

I have a feeling that a lot of models are going to be partially re-written after this season...

... once they work out what it is that the models have been missing so much.

[Fiona Robertson]

Think it's about to be upgraded to a 2.

[summer blizzard]

Pressure is down to 981mb and an eyewall is visible on microwave imagery albeit still open on the west side. Nate should indeed be category 2 pretty quickly. 

[karyo]

2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Why sadly thats a good thing.

Some of us here want to see the full force of nature! This is not a fair weather thread.

[Fiona Robertson]

5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Pressure is down to 981mb and an eyewall is visible on microwave imagery albeit still open on the west side. Nate should indeed be category 2 pretty quickly. 

Yeah, I noticed the 981.8 mb readings, but they've marked the "centre" at 988 mb.I think they chose that because of the wind direction, but I'm not convinced it's really 988 mb. We'll see what the next pass brings.

[crimsone]

Here comes Category 2 status...

 

[karyo]

So Nate is already stronger than the forecast.

[crimsone]

15 minutes ago, karyo said:

So Nate is already stronger than the forecast.

Pressure steady at 985 right now though. Eye is C24 open SW, so it's trying hard nonetheless.

[alexisj9]

Just now, crimsone said:

Pressure steady at 985 right now though. Eye is C24 open SW, so it's trying hard nonetheless.

It will close soon i'm sure, then i expect it to make cat 3 quite easily. Unfortunately 

[crimsone]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

It will close soon i'm sure, then i expect it to make cat 3 quite easily. Unfortunately 

At its current course and speed, I would expect it to make landfall in 6 to 9 hours, so if it has the time to get to Cat 3 I'd be very, very surprised.

[karyo]

Just now, crimsone said:

At its current course and speed, I would expect it to make landfall in 6 to 9 hours, so if it has the time to get to Cat 3 I'd be very, very surprised.

Exactly, this is a fast moving hurricane so cat 3 is out of question.

The forward speed is good news on the ground also because it means the heavy rain will move trough faster. This is the opposite of what happened with Harvey.

[summer blizzard]

NHC declare that Nate is now a 90mph hurricane and note that they may be conservative in that estimate. Forecast to make landfall at 105mph. 

Storm surge for the coast is now forecast at 7 to 11 feet. 

[crimsone]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

NHC declare that Nate is now a 90mph hurricane and note that they may be conservative in that estimate. Forecast to make landfall at 105mph. 

Storm surge for the coast is now forecast at 7 to 11 feet. 

I think their problem is that the windfield is oddly lop-sided. Had it not had so much forward speed, I could well imagine that a hurricane like this would either clear its eye and promptly collapse as it opened again, or wrap its convection around properly and clear it's throat for some RI.

Alas, with this one, we'll never know.

[Daniel*]

While probably an outside chance I'm going for Nate to make landfall at 115mph ongoing strengthening not rapid but steady. 

[Fiona Robertson]

I'm going for 102-105 mph at landfall

[Daniel*]

 

[karyo]

Nate still at 90mph so I guess there won't be much strengthening now. 

[crimsone]

43 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

 

27 minutes ago, karyo said:

Nate still at 90mph so I guess there won't be much strengthening now. 

Shame... 

Looks like it was just beginning to get its act together too. Good news for the Big Easy though, I guess!