Hurricane Nate

[summer blizzard]

90L has become Tropical Depression 16. Provided it can form a coherent single core (it has competing centers) then it should hit the gulf coast as a hurricane on Sunday. NHC and SHIPS note the possibility of rapid intensification however the GFS never forms a coherent center. 

Edited October 7, 2017 by Nick L

[Chris.R]

 Here we go again. Looks like we’ll soon be saying hello to Nate. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro is 963mb so high end cat 2. 

Ships now forecasting rapid intensification..

SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  63% is  10.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

That's a forecast for a 95KT system in 72 hours. 

[knocker]

[summer blizzard]

Convection has developed over a center and a large banding feature now exists over the northern half. If the core can build we should see strengthening.

[knocker]

 

[mountain shadow]

Here we go again. Some very warm waters to cross before US landfall

 

[karyo]

The gfs is not looking enthusiastic about Nate getting to the US coast as a hurricane. Mainly a rainmaker.

[Fiona Robertson]

Certainly worth keeping a close eye on. It's been a strange season.

[Daniel*]

Well Nate is born GFS for once seems to have outdone ECM with its more westerly track ECM has jumped aboard possible taking Nate to the Carolinas.

 

[karyo]

28 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well Nate is born GFS for once seems to have outdone ECM with its more westerly track ECM has jumped aboard possible taking Nate to the Carolinas.

 

That's interesting as the GFS has Nate much weaker that the ECM. 

[alr1970]

22 killed already in Central America at TS strength. :-(

Tropical Storm Nate kills 22 in Central America, heads for US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/06/tropical-storm-nate-kills-central-america-heads-for-us?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[crimsone]

As things stand, New Orleans gets the eye of a Cat 1.

 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, crimsone said:

As things stand, New Orleans gets the eye of a Cat 1.

 

Some concerns about whether N.O. can deal with the rainfall.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/nola-pumps-still-broken-ahead-of-nate

[Methuselah]

I sincerely hope that they're not 'still broken' from Katrina, Karyo?

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I sincerely hope that they're not 'still broken' from Katrina, Karyo?

Me too! You'd think in an area that is prone to hurricanes and tropical rains, fixing those pumps would be a priority but obviously not.

They were broken during Harvey but luckily for New Orleans the worst of the rains were in Texas.

[kar999]

A work colleague is jetting off to holiday in Cancun Mexico early this morning. It looks like they'll just about be landing before Nate hits them early on Saturday. Could be a very bumpy ride.

[mwm991]

The most laughable thing is, New Orleans is a good bit inland. You are about 80 miles from Grand Isle as the crow flies which is one of the small coastal areas at the very tip of Louisiana's gulf coast. 

[karyo]

It looks to me that if the forecast path moves further west, it would be even worse for New Orleans as a lot of rain would then fall on the Mississippi river catchment area. As things stand it looks like Nate will shift northeast after impacting N.O.

I guess at this close range there shouldn't be major changes to the track. 

[summer blizzard]

Nate now at 50mph and has wrapped convection round the north, west and south sides. If it wraps convection round the east then we may see why SHIPS is suggesting rapid intensification chances as being higher than average. 

Sadly even at Harvey levels of deepening we won't see anything beyond category 2, more likely a high end category 1 given the short time frame. 

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-96-1-20   

Edited October 6, 2017 by Hurricane Andrew

[karyo]

16 minutes ago, Hurricane Andrew said:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-96-1-20   

Amazing to see!

[Daniel*]

Low end Cat 3 is possible albeit unlikely I definitely see her being at least a Cat 2. Nate seems to be getting her act together she's strengthening moving relatively fast 21mph, however approx 24 hours over open warm waterexpect the unexpected. The Mayor of New Orleans? Has recently declared mandatory evacuations in some districts in preparation for an expect 6-8ft tidal surge supposedly a lot of the pumps are out of action. 

Edited October 6, 2017 by Daniel*

[karyo]

Nate has 60mph sustained winds now so intensifying nicely.

[kar999]

Winds picking up in Cancun Mexico. Click for live streams.

 

Edited October 6, 2017 by kar999