Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[Interitus]

15 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes. Is 65 degrees not more significant?

The ensemble mean minimum of the last run was -11.3 m/s so no, not really different from op now.

That's a fair question and some researchers have used it for their SSW definition, but just using one pressure level and latitude whatever they are helps give some consistency for comparison purposes

Edited December 28, 2018 by Interitus

[SMU]

@Interitus

What was the FV3 12z as this was the first run that displayed a decent amount of propergation..

Its only an 'indicator' of course, as the split is more important...

[bluearmy]

Splits now showing by T108 .......propagation probability must surely be resolved by the end of the weekend ......

[Interitus]

33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@Interitus

What was the FV3 12z as this was the first run that displayed a decent amount of propergation..

Its only an 'indicator' of course, as the split is more important...

-10.6 m/s - think this is the strongest so far for this model.

[northwestsnow]

41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Splits now showing by T108 .......propagation probability must surely be resolved by the end of the weekend ......

The warming is doing its thing them..

Absolutely awe inspiring watching some of the animations - 

Next few days could be quite hairy , Exeters unsettled early Jan looks on dodgy ground to me..

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The warming is doing its thing them..

Absolutely awe inspiring watching some of the animations - 

Next few days could be quite hairy , Exeters unsettled early Jan looks on dodgy ground to me..

Second week jan seemed more certain than first but even that could fail based on the changes we have seen last couple days ....

[phil nw.]

GFSp at t180

Decent split filtering down to mid-level with quite a gap between the lobes across Greenland.

Looking more promising than a few days ago.Compares quite well with the last ECM outputs. 

[lorenzo]

GEOS view from 00z of the vortices and split action across the levels, not got the 12z yet - but from Ventrice tweet hints of the split extending on EC tonight via run to run comparison. Berlin will be worth a look in the morning... 

Given the current 'downwell / not to downwell' query via GFS vs GEOS, interesting to see hints of the EC modelling the NE Canada split more aggressively than GFS -has GEOS taken the lead here with EC coming in line.. feels like a window of opportunity opening however tentative at present.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by lorenzo

[Snowjokes92]

17 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

GEOS view from 00z of the vortices and split action across the levels, not got the 12z yet - but from Ventrice tweet hints of the split extending on EC tonight via run to run comparison. Berlin will be worth a look in the morning... 

Given the current 'downwell / not to downwell' query via GFS vs GEOS, interesting to see hints of the EC modelling the NE Canada split more aggressively than GFS -has GEOS taken the lead here with EC coming in line.. feels like a window of opportunity opening however tentative at present.

 

 

I gather from your post, from a noob on SSW, that we could be in for some eye candy on wetterzentrale in the morning?

[lorenzo]

Not on wetterzentrale, although by 19:00 tomorrow evening... who knows.. I was referring to viewing the 12z EC trend on the strat plots on Berlin site.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng

[ArHu3]

31 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

GEOS view from 00z of the vortices and split action across the levels, not got the 12z yet - but from Ventrice tweet hints of the split extending on EC tonight via run to run comparison. Berlin will be worth a look in the morning... 

Given the current 'downwell / not to downwell' query via GFS vs GEOS, interesting to see hints of the EC modelling the NE Canada split more aggressively than GFS -has GEOS taken the lead here with EC coming in line.. feels like a window of opportunity opening however tentative at present.

 

 

Ventrice is looking at the old EC run from yesterday 

[lorenzo]

I thought it was the 12z from tonight, apologies. 

Anyway on wards to Berlin in the morning !

 

[JeffC]

Original vortex being put under a lot more pressure now! 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.37,85.06,259/loc=111.960,80.062

 

[blizzard81]

33 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Ventrice is looking at the old EC run from yesterday 

You need to click the play button in the centre. It then plays the animation of each run from the 26th  Dec up to the 12z run of today which looks really peachy 

[blizzard81]

24 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

I thought it was the 12z from tonight, apologies. 

Anyway on wards to Berlin in the morning !

 

See my reply to ArHu3

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

You need to click the play button in the centre. It then plays the animation of each run from the 26th  Dec up to the 12z run of today which looks really peachy 

The 12\ from yesterday looked the best.

[ArHu3]

7 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

You need to click the play button in the centre. It then plays the animation of each run from the 26th  Dec up to the 12z run of today which looks really peachy 

Oh that 8 looked like a 6 on my phone 

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, lorenzo said:

I thought it was the 12z from tonight, apologies. 

Anyway on wards to Berlin in the morning !

 

 

9 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

You need to click the play button in the centre. It then plays the animation of each run from the 26th  Dec up to the 12z run of today which looks really peachy 

You mean the ec run which reversed all the way down at day 8 above 70N ??

[ArHu3]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

You mean the ec run which reversed all the way down at day 8 above 70N ??

Wow that's a gig upgrade from the medium term onwards compared to the previous run (which was an upgrade from previous one too) 

Edited December 29, 2018 by ArHu3

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Wow that's a gig upgrade from the medium term onwards compared to the previous run (which was an upgrade from previous one too) 

Agreed Arhu3..

We just got to hope we get some response in the trop..

Edited December 29, 2018 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed Arhu3..

We just got to hope we get some response in the trop..

It’s clear we are as slp and heights increase across the extended ens suites 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It’s clear we are as slp and heights increase across the extended ens suites 

Nice to hear Blue   thanks for the heads up..

[bluearmy]

signs that the split lessens as we head through week 2 higher up .... as the long rangers have all shown an active Atlantic jet (displaced south), we shouldn’t expect that the Canadian daughter will just disappear or drift off into an obscure part of n America ! 

[Cloud 10]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

 

You mean the ec run which reversed all the way down at day 8 above 70N ??

 

Probably the best yet at day 8 and looks like another push down coming day 10+.

 

FI model eye-candy incoming soon methinks.

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Probably the best yet at day 8 and looks like another push down coming day 10+.

 

FI model eye-candy incoming soon methinks.

 

Wonderful looking charts only snag is they are yesterdays and todays might not look as good..