Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[Borei]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately there is a euro high on the way...it looks hopeless.

:-(

It doesn't look 'hopeless' for cold zonality, although I agree that meaningful Atlantic ridging is extremely unlikely. 

The EC run looks consistent with much current output, specifically a very mobile westerly pattern with spells of Tm and Pm air, potentially stormy and wet at times. But with the jet set to be fairly far south at times, flattening the Euro high, we're a long way from some of the truly awful winters with dominant high pressure stretched all the way from the Azores through to eastern Europe.     

 

[nick sussex]

Not great outputs so far tonight although the GFS takes things further in delivering some hideous output with one big PV blob at T240hrs.

The ECM isn't quite as bad, its saved by the fact that it really digs that trough further south, with so much warm air being pumped ne into the Arctic, high pressure is likely to develop to the ne.

Christmas Day is still looking uncertain although timing wise things might fall so that the mini cooler blip lands on that day.

 

 

 

[snowray]

Yes quite a nice looking chart at T168 and certainly a bit of potential, fingers crossed we get something more interesting developing around this timeframe in future runs.

[Guest]

After a long and exhausting week of serious model watching and posting, I would like to end on a more cheerful note for all the coldies (mods permitting - I hope). We can sum up the last few GEFS runs as follows (sing after me):

12 Arctic HPs

11 PVs splitting

10 + PNAs

  9 routes to cold

  8  Scandi highs

  7  easterlies

  6 cold troughs

  5 sliders (sli-i-ders)

  4 snow events

  3 battle zones

  2 barrel lows

 and a cut-off Greenland high!

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Precisely. The 23rd December onwards is providing plenty of headaches right now, I would say. Run through the warming in the Pacific region way out towards the NW of our tiny island over the other side of the globe from my stated timeframe. I do wonder if this is a pattern-changer and if it stratosphere-driven? I am not qualified to answer that but suggest folk keep on this aspect from here on in. A temporary (maybe an extended one) Northerly-based flow could perhaps result out of this, who knows and all of this at D6 range. 

 

Edited December 17, 2017 by gottolovethisweather
Please delete Mods. See other post.

[swfc]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately there is a euro high on the way...it looks hopeless.

:-(

Esb it is then!!!!

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

which raises an interesting question- when is a PV not a PV?....

See the mslp and z500 and the corresponding thicknesses 

the vortex in canada with a smaller chunk in e Asia over kamkatchka 

 

  

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

GFS 12z looks better for the south on Christmas Day & Boxing Day than it did yesterday, could it be the unsettled weather is getting pushed back a bit? 

[gottolovethisweather]

21 minutes ago, LRD said:

NH profile isn't without interest though

Precisely. The 23rd December onwards is providing plenty of headaches right now, I would say. Run through the warming in the Pacific region way out towards the NW of our tiny island over the other side of the globe from my stated timeframe. I do wonder if this is a pattern-changer and if it stratosphere-driven? I am not qualified to answer that but suggest folk keep a watch on this aspect from here on in. A temporary (maybe an extended one) Northerly-based flow could perhaps result out of this, who knows and all of this at D6 range.  

 

Edited December 17, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Singularity]

When ECM took that low over the ridge from the Pacific on day 6, it was a genuine facepalm moment, either for the modelling or the actual route that we'll be following (which it is, remains to be seen!.

The model managed a partial recovery afterwards as another round of amplification sent the ridge back poleward, but by that time we're left with the 2009-style road ahead of us whereby heights attempt to build N from Europe to Scandinavia and then NW from there, leaving us on the eastern periphery of a broad Atlantic trough and under threat of large rainfall totals plus some strong wind events.

What with the MJO projections suddenly less amplified in today's update, there is some genuine concern regarding finding a way to beat down the more mobile spell this side of New Years. Could be worse though; with a different teleconnection state, I could have been saying this side of mid-late January! 

[knocker]

The ecm det not without interest as it realigns the strong Alaskan ridge and the arctic trough with height rises in the western Atlantic which all contrives to displace the Canadian vortex resulting in an interuption of the strong zonal flow across the Atlantic. All the same a very strong thermal gradient running down the west flank of the Atlantic trough with the jet in the 190kt region. All of which would portend some strong winds with some rain over the Xmas period albeit temps a little above average warming Sidneys cockles.

 

[N/A]

16 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

GFS 12z looks better for the south on Christmas Day & Boxing Day than it did yesterday, could it be the unsettled weather is getting pushed back a bit? 

It looks like don't it?

Not a bad chart at all for Boxing Day perhaps a bit breezy when I and hundreds of other people go for our annual swim in the lovely warm sea in Tenby

[comet]

49 minutes ago, swfc said:

Wow what a diff a week makes weather and mood wise.Possibly GP or Tamara could post and steady the ship.Any looks like a fired up pv is looking to build ete  after a week of milder weather.Anyonewith altitude may do well if the said spell transpires and any move north of west may spring a few suprises.Nothing cast in stone tbh so maybe a few twists and turns yet giving the current volatility in the output

Not knocking GP or Tamara but all they do is offer their own views of where the different teleconnects etc are taking us rather than just using the models in isolation. As such they can like the met or any other longer range forecaster be wrong as we have seen in the past and will likely see in the future. The models do not offer great viewing at this present time that's for sure. Hopefully this will change in runs to come.

[Chesil View]

Whilst everyone is worrying about the consistent mild at first the stormy pattern after xmas being shown by the gfs. There is also another consitency on the 06z and12z and that is that final few frames of both show ridging towards the pole.  Funnily enough at just about the timeframe that GP and the Meto suggest a pattern change ..............well well.

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

When ECM took that low over the ridge from the Pacific on day 6, it was a genuine facepalm moment, either for the modelling or the actual route that we'll be following (which it is, remains to be seen!.

The model managed a partial recovery afterwards as another round of amplification sent the ridge back poleward, but by that time we're left with the 2009-style road ahead of us whereby heights attempt to build N from Europe to Scandinavia and then NW from there, leaving us on the eastern periphery of a broad Atlantic trough and under threat of large rainfall totals plus some strong wind events.

What with the MJO projections suddenly less amplified in today's update, there is some genuine concern regarding finding a way to beat down the more mobile spell this side of New Years. Could be worse though; with a different teleconnection state, I could have been saying this side of mid-late January! 

Don't like the sound of that MJO update. Could you elaborate please?

[winterof79]

18 minutes ago, Singularity said:

When ECM took that low over the ridge from the Pacific on day 6, it was a genuine facepalm moment, either for the modelling or the actual route that we'll be following (which it is, remains to be seen!.

The model managed a partial recovery afterwards as another round of amplification sent the ridge back poleward, but by that time we're left with the 2009-style road ahead of us whereby heights attempt to build N from Europe to Scandinavia and then NW from there, leaving us on the eastern periphery of a broad Atlantic trough and under threat of large rainfall totals plus some strong wind events.

What with the MJO projections suddenly less amplified in today's update, there is some genuine concern regarding finding a way to beat down the more mobile spell this side of New Years. Could be worse though; with a different teleconnection state, I could have been saying this side of mid-late January! 

2009 brought some belting N/Westerlies if I recall

Look what happened afterward

So I will take a re-run of 2009

 

Edited December 17, 2017 by winterof79

[swfc]

1 minute ago, comet said:

Not knocking GP or Tamara but all they do is offer their own views of where the different teleconnects etc are taking us rather than just using the models in isolation. As such they can like the met or any other longer range forecaster be wrong as we have seen in the past and will likely see in the future. The models do not offer great viewing at this present time that's for sure. Hopefully this will change in runs to come.

I wasnt im anyway saying otherwise!!!

For me personally they offer background signals ete that I can grasp and understand along with singularity,SM and BA.As far as I know the met dont give such an insight. Because of my age I have in someways been left behind in regard the technicalities ete and tend to study charts rightly or wrongly.

Anyway imo I still believe the run up and into the newyear isnt resolved

 

 

[mulzy]

When should we start getting worried about wind and rainfall impacts?  The NWP is very concerning - hope the various contingency planners have got all bases covered over the holiday period.

 

[winterof79]

24 minutes ago, mulzy said:

When should we start getting worried about wind and rainfall impacts?  The NWP is very concerning - hope the various contingency planners have got all bases covered over the holiday period.

 

I do not see anything out of the ordinary in the reliable time frames and cold zonality thereafter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=2

[MR EXTREMES]

Nothing at all interesting tonight in regards to real winter wonderland.

All show an extremely stormy wet cool zonal onslaught.

With pulses of Azores ridges up and sending the odd bout of northwesterly flow.

soelevation key for white Christmas in the north and in Wales.

I'm really not seeing nothing at all.

Bit of a mess.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I do not see anything out of the ordinary in the reliable time frames and cold zonality thereafter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=2

Never a fan of cold zonality, but it can deliver, quite effectively even down here

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Nothing at all interesting tonight in regards to real winter wonderland.

All show an extremely stormy wet cool zonal onslaught.

With pulses of Azores ridges up and sending the odd bout of northwesterly flow.

soelevation key for white Christmas in the north and in Wales.

I'm really not seeing nothing at all.

Bit of a mess.

Granted I haven't been model watching for very long but what I am seeing now is very different from previous winters, if you look at the northern hemisphere as a whole, we are just in the wrong side

[bluearmy]

Pin the tail on the donkey!

 

The ecm ens at day 10 is another model which is moving towards re amplifying the Pacific closer to the western end of the aleutians. 

[Daniel*]

It’s all going on in GEFS some pretty wacky runs, suggestive of mammoth uncertainty or Shannon what’s her face. 

Having a look one can not rule out a cold spell starting this side of the new year, some have said meaningful cold is not possible, possibly I think that’s the case. However, snow conducive air certainly possible potentially widespread from a cold zonal pattern - fairly unusual but not unheard of.

A cold snap between now and the new year is likely I reckon, hopefully coinciding on Xmas itself certainly a fair few members have a cold PM flow on the day with a white Christmas for some. 

Edited December 17, 2017 by Daniel*

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't like the sound of that MJO update. Could you elaborate please?

The mean is longer reaching near 3 SDs from zero (the circle is 1 SD) for any model, with GEFS having reduced the amplification a lot in a single day and ECM to a lesser extent. The stronger the MJO activity in phases 6-8, the more amplification to the Pacific pattern is likely, and so the more poleward the ridge from there is likely to go in the 6-14 day range, and as a result, the better our prospects for amplification in useful places later in time.

Hopefully an over-correction... by 4 pm tomorrow the next update will be telling.