Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Paul]

A fresh thread, and a fresh start I hope. 

A worrying trend has appeared in recent days, and that's certain individuals becoming quite abusive and virtually harassing people they see as having made an incorrect assessment of the models / teleconnections at some point. We've even had a couple of incidents where people are being sent abusive pm's. This obviously isn't on, the posts on here aren't a service which can be complained about in terms of their accuracy, and no-one making a post on here should ever have to put up with abuse because of it. It's an open forum and everyone is welcome to give their opinion, as much as everyone is welcome to read those opinions and make of them what they will. 

At the same time though, a discussion around an opinion or even disagreement is fine, as long as it's respectful and reasonable - on both sides. Those voicing their opinion have to understand sometimes someone may disagree or challenge a view, and not take that personally.

As ever, please hit the report button if you spot a post which you believe may be an issue. The team will deal with issues as quickly as they can, and when it comes to the abusive posts/pm's etc, we have already taken strong action against those posting them and will continue to do so should any other incidents occur.

Interested in short-range model analyses and discussion?
Head to the new short-range thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89089-short-range-model-discussion-into-2018/

Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models?
The banter thread is for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country?
The regional threads are the place for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR
NetWx-MR
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Snow forecast and precip type
Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

[snowice]

Gfs shows snow next week in the West! 

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Gfs shows snow next week in the West! 

Gfs looks pretty damn good for the north and west from 132 hours onwards!!!

[Lampostwatcher]

very nice gfs if you like from next week onwards 

north west look in prime position 

interesting times 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs looks pretty damn good for the north and west from 132 hours onwards!!!

Some relief that the 6z gfs doesn't follow the ECM. 

[ukpaul]

A more NW-SE trajectory but the PV chunk is weaker and dying away quickly (partly as a result of greater heights into Greenland), sure to have an effect down the line.

[Seasonality]

Nice looking charts. Heights over Greenland continuing a theme from yesterdays GFS 12z, a long draw of cold air from Canada to the Med! 

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Some relief that the 6z gfs doesn't follow the ECM. 

Thank god mate!!!any improvements on the 06z icon if you know?

[karyo]

Just now, shaky said:

Thank god mate!!!any improvements on the 06z icon if you know?

The 6z ICON looks similar to the previous run unfortunately. It only goes up to 120 hours but at to that point no change to 0z

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice looking charts. Heights over Greenland continuing a theme from yesterdays GFS 12z, a long draw of cold air from Canada to the Med! 

Wow  Seasonality...

With reports of 2 -7M of snow in the French Alps in the last 2 days (and still falling), we may have to send a search party for the alps if this verifies. 

MIA

[Seasonality]

Comparing the 00z to the 06z. Atlantic ridging into Greenland and reinvigoration of Scandi heights. 

[Frosty.]

Quite a bit of ❄❄❄❄ snow spreading in from the NW from early next week on the Gfs 6z, impressive cold zonality.

[booferking]

Dew points cold enough for many for snow, parts of the west see snow showers from 132hr right through to what seems for ever lovely.

[swfc]

6z gfs from 216 could be a belter!!! Tying in with GP ete musings going forward ie heights building nne

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z ICON looks similar to the previous run unfortunately. It only goes up to 120 hours but at to that point no change to 0z

For Compressions Icon Vs GFS (6z)



GFS is digging deeper into Europe.

[TEITS]

Anyone who viewed the 18Z last night shouldn't be surprised by the 06Z so far. This is why I am surprised at some of the posts this morning especially considering the GEM output also.

 

[Seasonality]

Now going for an Iceland/Scandi link up of heights.

[Chesil View]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Now going for an Iceland/Scandi link up of heights.

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. ?  Thankfully anything past 120/144 is pure conjecture.

[ukpaul]

Atlantic looks too strong in FI this time but, maybe, if the heights left there can build the way they have done this week, could that next attempt at a block lead to a battleground event? Needs all the elements to fall into place but you never know......

EDIT: Not backing down on the strat warming either, bringing it forwards as time passes. 324h now.

 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. ?

Not really, much colder over both the mainland and the UK and a rather different picture synoptically. All academic at this range of course.

 

[Chesil View]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Not really, much colder over both the mainland and the UK and a rather different picture synoptically. All academic at this range of course.

 

I take your point Seasonality.I. was refering to the synoptic stalemate with the high too far east and low stalling out west as you say though

 Totally academic at that range.

[Methuselah]

There is one shred of hope, in the gfs06z, I suppose: it's very unlikely to verify!

[nick sussex]

The GFS seems determined to keep us interested . The chopping and changing  with how the trough disrupts at least gives hope that the matter isn’t settled.

The ECM though looks less than interested and given the timeframes that would have to perform  a back track.

It seems though since its upgrade to veer from either over amplified or has at times thrown out some much more progressive outputs.

 

 

 

[andymusic]

Wales & Ireland could well be a winter wonderland next week

 

[Ruzzi]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There is one shred of hope, in the gfs06z, I suppose: it's very unlikely to verify!

Especially at day 16 ?