North west regional discussion

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

This could deliver for Wirral but for much of the region it will be a few snow flakes in the wind due to the God awful rain shadow effect. Snow shower activity also dies a death when a low approaches from the south while the Midlands and Wales get buttied in the snow.

Are you sure that wouldn't deliver? It's a big system that and if it reaches southern Scotland before filling as suggested then surely would be good for everyone? Surely the next frame would be epic for all.

Anyway plenty of snow chances for all well before this.

Edited February 24, 2018 by Day 10

[karyo]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Are you sure that wouldn't deliver? It's a big system that and if it reaches southern Scotland before filling as suggested then surely would be good for everyone? Surely the next frame would be epic for all.

Yes, the same happened in 2013 and the Pennines kept us dry here. By contrast, the convective easterly had showers crossing the hills with ease.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Seems like going from the posts on here, only the northern parts of the region will have to worry about the Pennines whilst more southern parts won't have too, either way one thing that might help is the wind and it' going to be a really gusty wind on this side of the Pennines also so severe wind chill will come into play.

I don't think central and eastern Cumbria will have to worry too much, we are in fact not that far away from the NE coast, with winds projected to be more direct ENE, think Jan 26/27 1996..

[iand61]

Good to see the region now covered by warnings on Tuesday and Wednesday and unlike those earlier in the season, I think that these will end up being justified.

i’m not expecting huge amounts but given the wind strength and bitterly cold uppers and dry air, what falls will readily blow into drifts and conditions approaching blizzard like will probably occur.

IMBY I wouldn’t be surprised to see something approaching late March 2013 which probably gave the largest drifts here since 1979 and even if the snow fails to materialise the winds and perishing cold will no doubt be one to remember.

meanwhile it’s all going off in the mod thread with summary executions taking place of anyone brave enough to mention next weekends low tracking further north and introducing rain and milder conditions down south.

 

 

[Mokidugway]

I'll put my neck on the line and say that south and west Cumbria will stay dry .

[damianslaw]

Yes think it might be best to hide from the MOD thread, as I suspect the GFS will hold its northerly push of the low pressure, whilst ECM maintains it further to the south - but it is rather pointless as this stage speculating things as we are a good 5/6 days away. It always surprises me how much people look for breakdowns before the cold/warmth has even established itself, deep cold and warmth has a habit of entrenching itself in slow moving patterns as we have ahead - do people learn?

Back to the models, and yes much of the region could see some decent snowfall by Thursday, but guessing amounts is all conjecture. A case of nowcasting.

[Barmada_Casten]

4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'll put my neck on the line and say that south and west Cumbria will stay dry .

Absolutely totally agree. 

[Wardlegacy]

People getting a bit techy  in the mod thread. I think i’ll stay in here! People aren’t keen on a bit of mild air getting into the South 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Wardlegacy

[Mokidugway]

24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes think it might be best to hide from the MOD thread, as I suspect the GFS will hold its northerly push of the low pressure, whilst ECM maintains it further to the south - but it is rather pointless as this stage speculating things as we are a good 5/6 days away. It always surprises me how much people look for breakdowns before the cold/warmth has even established itself, deep cold and warmth has a habit of entrenching itself in slow moving patterns as we have ahead - do people learn?

Back to the models, and yes much of the region could see some decent snowfall by Thursday, but guessing amounts is all conjecture. A case of nowcasting.

I would imagine the south east thread or as its called mod thread will be a bloodbath later .

[itsnowjoke]

Well it's certainly cold out that wind is biting already 

[Mokidugway]

Pleasant in warm sun away from wind 

[Wardlegacy]

I’m down in somerset this weekend. It’s lovely day but you can feel that wind starting to bite 

[itsnowjoke]

Always makes me laugh when the met o put warnings out for Yellow snow 

 

[Astral Goat Juice]

5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Pleasant in warm sun away from wind 

Yep its lovely out there. Sat here watching the Rugby with the sun beaming through my room and I'm very warm. 

Took the dog out twice before and you can feel that wind chill cooling. Decent little frost overnight too even with the cloud.

Milky tuna

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

Always makes me laugh when the met o put warnings out for Yellow snow 

 

Aye as Frank Zappa said ,don't you eat that yellow snow ......

[itsnowjoke]

Edited February 24, 2018 by itsnowjoke

[itsnowjoke]

I remember making him years ago

[Astral Goat Juice]

6 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

I remember making him years ago

Is that a recent picture 

[Day 10]

21 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Pleasant in warm sun away from wind 

Always putting a mild spin on things, are you sure the OX isn't your wife? I mean you're always banging on about her bad dress sense. 

[itsnowjoke]

14 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Is that a recent picture 

2013 I think that's all I could make 

Edited February 24, 2018 by itsnowjoke

[Wardlegacy]

The BBC app is showing quite a surge of temps on Friday and snow turning to rain. We shall see 

[Winter Hill]

1 hour ago, Wardlegacy said:

The BBC app is showing quite a surge of temps on Friday and snow turning to rain. We shall see 

BBC app is like Bolton''s back 4 

Crap 

[dodge]

I think my practical meaning post earlier was just trying to put a positive angle to the fact that my area won't get the best out of the upcoming easterly and then south easterly if the low comes up from the south.  I have been victim of the Gtr Mcr snow shadow/dome on previous such occasions.  Secretly I would love to be buried in tons of snow and I will have a touch of envy for those sweet spots in the East later next week.

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12Z is a bullseye for tues morning

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

I think my practical meaning post earlier was just trying to put a positive angle to the fact that my area won't get the best out of the upcoming easterly and then south easterly if the low comes up from the south.  I have been victim of the Gtr Mcr snow shadow/dome on previous such occasions.  Secretly I would love to be buried in tons of snow and I will have a touch of envy for those sweet spots in the East later next week.

TBH dodge i think we all feel like that in our region.