Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Mike Poole]

Few charts from the FV3 for your delectation, first T144:

T240:

yes the UK is in a southerly airflow at this point, but it's all about the blocking pattern at the moment, we can get it in the right place later.  T300:

And T336, like it!

Edited November 1, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

& the SE...

Yes, i meant basically anyone all down the East Coast of England within any sort of distance of the coast is in the firing line.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And just for the benefit who dont know, P2 goes on to build a long lasting, big stonking Greenland block and an almighty blizzard crippling Eastern Britain.

EDIT : already beaten to it by QS.

Not to be putting a dampener on things, but we've got more chance of being crippled by a herd of wildebeest...?

[WalsallWeather123]

Better ECM than the 0z but still underwhelming for long term prospects of cold

 

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not to be putting a dampener on things, but we've got more chance of being crippled by a herd of wildebeest...?

On that particular date yes, but come January - different story.

[booferking]

This could go either way key area is separation of the energy near Iceland ukmo separates it cleaner than EC between 96hr -120HR which allows the heights to build better into Greenland.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by booferking

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Better ECM than the 0z but still underwhelming for long term prospects of cold

 

No t240 on ECM after the two previous frames.....that would imo move on to the start of a cold block to our NE with a cold feed coming in from the East.  Very encouraging.....as this month unlikely to really show its hand until late in the month.  

 

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

I think at the moment the reality is from all the runs I have seen is that we will have a huge warm block of high pressure to our East with low pressure towards the West and the UK in general will have Southerly/South-Easterly winds, there is certainly no polar airmass in the forecast after tonight and into tomorrow so double figure temperatures for the foreseeable future looks the most likely. 

Not at all unusual for November though, quite common charts, I think one thing to note though is the PV over the Arctic will get yet another WAA type of event so who knows what effects that may have, if actually any as I don't believe WAA coming in the Pacific side of the Arctic has much affect on our weather really.

[SMU]

Remember - The ECM whilst scoring the best across the mean it doesnt always hit the mark-

The past 24 hours & forthcoming 48 will 'probably' show how models can morph into something totally different... If this was a horse race UKMO / P2 evolution looks to be the moderate favourite -

This is a sharp modality change of the AO again & when you get rapid change you also generally reduce the accuracy / increase the entropy....

s

[tight isobar]

Large sibreian lobe..

Pac punching into the pole...

Cut off energy into the Atlantic...

And a noted- possible split and apple-cut in th vortex...

Im happy with the formats....

Oscilation...and turnplates..are top-notch.

Edited November 1, 2018 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember - The ECM whilst scoring the best across the mean it doesnt always hit the mark-

The past 24 hours & forthcoming 48 will 'probably' show how models can morph into something totally different... If this was a horse race UKMO / P2 evolution looks to be the moderate favourite -

This is a sharp modality change of the AO again & when you get rapid change you also generally reduce the accuracy / increase the entropy....

s

I wonder if the JMA 12z might join that race, here at T144 and T192, certainly the possibility of a earlier evolution to a Greenland block is heightened with the 12s tonight.

Edited November 1, 2018 by Mike Poole

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Only P2 manages to start filtering the cold into Scandi but look what happens thereafter:

   

 

Then blizzards threatening later for the East 

 

 

We live in hope...

It might be the day after Halloween, but that 12Z GEFS ensemble member 2 is a spooktacular run for the cold and snow fans!

[Mucka]

The search for cold?

 

EDIT

Forget it, I should of read the forum first - was posting p2 

Edited November 1, 2018 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

All the hype over gefs P2 and it actually barely brings snowfall further inland than the coast .......

assume the 46 will be available an hour earlier now .........

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All the hype over gefs P2 and it actually barely brings snowfall further inland than the coast .......

assume the 46 will be available an hour earlier now .........

Will be interesting where the 46 goes mid month onwards..

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All the hype over gefs P2 and it actually barely brings snowfall further inland than the coast .......

assume the 46 will be available an hour earlier now .........

Yes, mondays run was anyway - around 22:06 it will be.

 

BTW P2 would bring it further inland if it went out further - look at that cold pool awaiting.

Edited November 1, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, mondays run was anyway - around 22:06 it will be.

 

BTW P2 would bring it further inland if it went out further - look at that cold pool awaiting.

I guess Monday's update was crud as nobody seemed to comment on it?

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I guess Monday's update was crud as nobody seemed to comment on it?

I think it was an improvement although my memory might be playing tricks, from memory one of last weeks runs was dyer, zonal dross up until week 5.

 

I will tell you what is a corker though while we are on the subject of Monthly models.

Edited November 1, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I guess Monday's update was crud as nobody seemed to comment on it?

@bluearmy posted it in the other model output thread . Here's what he said 

[Methuselah]

53 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All the hype over gefs P2 and it actually barely brings snowfall further inland than the coast .......

assume the 46 will be available an hour earlier now .........

P2 must be what Nathan Rao looks at?

[BlazeStorm]

Looking cold in Ireland tonight

 

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z at T126,  I guess it's a question of which of the three pressure points on the vortex dominates

From our side forces most, but the e USA and the Pacific have all been relevant on previous   runs. Let's see how this one goes...

Interesting even at T144:

And at T162 it's the cross polar link up that is more likely, wonder where this will lead?!!

Edited November 1, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 is late.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is late.

Ahhh, diddums!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is late.

So predictable!